JOURNAL OF CHINA HYDROLOGY

Transcription

1 JOURNAL OF CHINA HYDROLOGY Vol.30 No.5 Oct., ,2 3, (1., ; 2., ; 3., ) :, 12, 1961~1990, ~ ~ HadlyCM3 Delta,, ( ) (2010~ ~ ~2099 ),, 100,, : ; ; ; : S157; P467 : A : (2010) ,,, 5 000~ t / km 2 a [13], [1] [14],,,, IPCC 2007,,, 2, 2.1,,, [2] [15],, [3-4] 20 80, [11] [12], Revelle and Waggoner,, (1983) CO 2, 12 10%, 2 C [5] David Favis-Mortlock and, John Boardman(1995),, 1 1 [6] Zhang Nearing (2005) Oklahoma 2070~ , [3],1995 (GCM) [7], 1961~1990 [8-10] ~1990 (, 1), 1961~ : : (2006BAD09B05) : (1985-),,,,,

2 E 96 E 98 E 100 E 104 E 108 E 112 E 116 E 120 E N 42 E 40 E 40 E 38 E E 36 E 34 E E 34 E 32 E E 30 E E E 98 E 100 E 102 E 104 E 106 E 108 E 110 E 112 E 114 E 116 E 118 E 1 Fig.1 Distribution of the typical catchments 1 Table 1 Basic feature of 12 typical catchments / km 2 / mm / mm / t km -2 a

3 5 : ( 1) GCM,, 1961~1990, (baseline) ~2039 (2020s) 2040~2069 (2050s) 2070~2099 (2080s)30 a ArcGIS (Kriging) 98, GCM, (2009),, (HadleyCM3), [16], 1961~1990, SPSS HadleyCM3 HadleyCM3 [17] HadleyCM2, GCM, 1%, CH 4 3~5, [18] N 2 O CFC ll, 2.5 ( ) 3.75 ( ) Delta HadleyCM3,IPCC [8], HadleyCM3 1961~1990 (baseline) 2020s 73, s 2080s, HadleyCM3 28, 2, 1961~1990, (2020s 2050s 2080s), GCM, GCM, Fig.2 2 HadlyCM3 Fictitious grids provided by HadlyCM3 ArcGIS, (2020s 2050s 2080s), ~ ~,,1961~1990,, 3, 3.1,, 2 ~ ~ Table 2 2 Relationship among the precipitation, runoff and sediment in the catchments P-R R 2 R-S R 2 R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = P S = R R = 0.119P S = R R = P S = R R = 0.666P S = R :P,R, mm;s, t/km 2 a

4 28 30,0.05,, 0%~51.3%, ~ 3 (2020s 2050s 2080s) ~ 6.3% 22.3%38.3%, 12.3% 22.2%33%,, ~ ~ 30,,,,,2020s 2050s,, 16%, 2050s 2080s 16%; 2020s~2050s 2050s~2080s % 10.8%, 3 HadleyCM3,1961~1990, , 2020s 2.88% 4 HadleyCM3 Table HadleyCM3 (%) Table 3 Variations of precipitation in the catchments predicted by HadleyCM3 (%) 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s HadleyCM3 (%) Variations of runoff in the catchments predicted by HadleyCM3(%) 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s

5 5 : 29, 2020s~2050s 2050s~2080s 45.9%46.2%, 28.2%28.9%,, 2020s 8.64%,, 1.9%~,,, 128.6% 2020s 2050s 2080s % 43.1%75.6%, 22.3% 42.5% 61.6%,,,2020s~2050s T 1961~ %,2050s~2080s 32.5%;, ( 6), 2020s~2050s 2050s~2080s 2050s, 20.2% 19.1%,, Zhang(2005) Kingfisher, 2080s 40%~48% [2] 12,, ~, ~,, 25.1% 37.9% HadleyCM3, 83.2%, 25.8% 39.2%70% (2020s 2050s 2080s) : s 2050s 2080s,, 2020s -2.88%~51.3%, 11.2%, -8.64%~128.6%,, 2.8%~199.7% %~199.7%, 19.3% 65.2%111.4%, 35.3% 63.5%92.4% 33.6%,64.7%99.2%, 34.8% 66.1%83.1% s, Table 5 5 HadleyCM3 (%) Variations of erosion modulus in the catchments predicted by HadleyCM3(%) 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s

6 HadleyCM3 T- (0.05) Table.6 Paired T-test of erosion under different scenarios predicted by HadleyCM3 (0.05) 1961~ s 2020s ** 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * * ** 2050s ** ** NS ** 2080s ** ** ** 2020s ** ** 2050s ** 2080s : NS, *, **, 23 (4): (ZHANG Guang-hui. Response of rainfall erosivity, to climate change in Yellow River Basin [J]. Journal of Mountain, Science,2005,23(4): (in Chinese)) [9]. [J].,2006,25 (2): (ZHANG Guang-hui. Analysis of : [1],.2007 [J]., (in Chinese)) 2008,4(1):53-56.(ZHONG Hai-ling,SHEN Yong-ping. Review of global climate change in 2007[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(1):53-56.(in Chinese)) [2] Zhang,X. C. Spatial downscaling of global climate model output for site-specific assessment of crop production and soil erosion[j].agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2005, [3]. [J].,2007,8:1-3. (CHEN Zhi-kai.The impact of globe warming on water resources [J]. China Water Resources,2007,8:1-3.(in Chinese)) [4] Zhang,X. C., Nearing,M. A. Impact of climate change on soil erosion,runoff, and wheat productivity in central Oklahoma [J].Catena,2005,61: [5] Reza Savabi,M. Claudio,O. Stockle. Modeling the possible impact of increased CO 2 and temperature on soil water balance,crop yield and soil erosion [J]. Environmental Modeling & Software,2001,16: potential effects of global climate change on natural runoff in the Yellow River basin[j].geographical Research,2006,25(2): [10] Zhang,G.H., Nearing, M.A. and Liu, B.Y. Potential effects of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Yellow River basin of China [J]. American Society of Agricultural Engineers,2005,48 (2): [11],,. [M]. :,2001.(LIU Bao-yuan,XIE Yun,ZHANG Ke-li. Soil Erosion Prediction Model [M].Beijing China Science and Technology Press,2001.(in Chinese)) [12]. ()[M]. :,1997. (Upper and Middle Reaches Authority of Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission. Soil and Water Conservation Practice and Research of the Loess Plateau (2nd Edition) [M].Zhengzhou:Yellow River Water Conservancy Press, 1997.(in Chinese)) [13] Fu,B J and Gulinek,H. Land evaluation in area of severe ero [6] David Favis-Mortlock and John Boardman. Nonlinear responses of soil erosion to climate change: a modeling study on the UK South sion:loess plateau of China[J]. Lain1 Degradation and Rehabilitation,1994,5(1): [14],,. [M]. :, Downs[J].Catena,1995,27: ,5-7. (XI Jia -zhi, CHANG Bing -yan, GAO Chuan -de. [7],. [J]. Yellow River Water Resources[M]. Zhengzhou:Yellow River Water,1995,50(1):25-34.(YOU Lian-yuan, YANG Ji-wu. Impact of environmental change on coming water and sediments at the lower reaches of Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,1995,50(1): (in Chinese)) Conservancy Press, 1996,5-7.(in Chinese)) [15]. [M]. :,1991.(WANG Yi-feng. Vegetation Resources and Its Rational Utilization of the Loess Plateau Region [M].Beijing:Chi- [8]. [J].,2005, na Science and Technology Press,1991.(in Chinese))

7 5 : ,29 (5):1-5,22.(CAO Ying, ZHANG Guang-hui. Applicability evaluation of global circulation models in the Yellow River basin [J]. Journal of China Hydrology,2009,29 (5):1-5,22. (in Chinese)) [17] Mike Hulme, John Mitchell, William Ingram, et al. Climate [16],. [J]., change scenarios for global impacts studies [J]. Global Environmental Change,1999,9:3-19. [18] Hay,L.E., Wilby, R.L., Leavesley, G.H. A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States[J]. Journal of the American Water Resource Association, 2000, 36(2): Response of Soil Erosion to Global Climate Change in Typical Catchments of Yellow River Basin FAN Lan 1,2, ZHANG Guang-hui 3 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing , China; 2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing , China; 3. School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing , China) Abstract: The Yellow River Basin, especially the Loess Plateau in the middle reaches, is one of the areas with the strongest soil erosion in the world. Any variation of soil erosion caused by global climate change, plays an important role in making the medium - and long -term strategy of the water and soil conservations of the Yellow River basin. In this study, 12 typical catchments were selected along the Yellow River. Using the data of precipitation, runoff and sediment during 1961 ~1990, the relationship was investigated among the precipitation, the runoff and the sediments in the catchments. Precipitation of the typical catchments in different time periods was obtained after Delta downscaling processes of the data provided by the English HadlyCM3 model. Based on the statistical results, we predicted the variations of soil erosion in the Yellow River Basin in different periods (2010~ ~ ~2099) in the future under different climate change scenarios (,). As a result, the precipitation, runoff and sediment in the 12 typical catchments will increase in the next 100 years under the influence of climate change. Therefore, the water and soil conservations of the Yellow River Basin should be strengthened. More attention should be paid to the potential effects of climate change on the Yellow River basin, and the coping mechanism should be considered. Key words: Yellow River basin; global climate change; precipitation; runoff; sediment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( 48 ) (3),,,, :, ( [1]. [M]. :,1960. (Wuhan ),, Institute of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering.Hydraulics [M]. Beijing: China WaterPower Press, (in, ~ Chinese)) Resistance Distribution Characteristics of Riverbed in Compound Channel of Yellow River Lower Reach ZHANG Li, WANG De-zhong, SHI Wen-bo, WAN Peng, SU Qi-dong (Key Laboratory of Yellow River Sediment, Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou , China) Abstract: By using the observed hydrological data from 1934 to 2002, the river bed resistance distribution at Gaocun in the lower reach of the Yellow River was analyzed, so as to make service for hydraulic calculation and flood routing. Key words: roughness; drag coefficient; Renault coefficient; compound channel () station