De energie transitie in Europa

Transcription

1 De energie transitie in Europa Is het tipping point naar een duurzaam energiesysteem nabij? KBC Horizon 2050 Brussel, 15 juni 2018 Dr Jos DELBEKE EPSC, Europese Commissie

2 Climate Change waar staan we vandaag? Wetenschap: overtuigend IPPC: nooit geziene wijziging over decennia, eeuwen en zelfs millennia "man-made" Conclusie/synthese: vanaf 2 C enorme impact Rapport over 1.5 C Parijs Akkoord: Doelstelling: "well-below 2 C" Participatie: ook opkomende industrielanden hele wereld, zelfs N-Korea en Syrië maar niet de US vanaf 2020? Significante verschillen met Kyoto Protocol Bottom up (NDC) en Top down (MRV) 2

3 Emissions of major economies, (all greenhouse gases, all sources & sinks) (Source: historical emissions data: inventories data to the UNFCCC ( 3

4 EU greenhouse gas emissions Source: EEA Trends and pojections in Europe

5 EU : Decoupling growth from emissions ( ) % GDP 120 Index 1990= GDP GHG emissions - 23% GHG emissions 60 GHG intensity 40 Source: European Commission based on data compiled by EEA 5

6 Transition to a low-carbon EU economy in 2050 (greenhouse gas emissions by sector over time as % of 1990 levels) 6

7 1. EU ETS 2005 emissions (EEA estimate at current scope) 2,3bn Phase 2 average: 2,2 bn 2013: 2,1 bn 1,74% -21% 1,8 Bn 1, 48 bn international credits exchanged until May ,2% -43% 1,3 Bn Note: emissions for phases 1 and 2 are EEA estimates for historic emissions, at the current scope of the ETS.

8 The European carbon price Source: ICE 8

9 Historic prices and (one) forecast Source: ICIS November

10 Free allocation and carbon leakage Continued protection of the EU industry from carbon leakage with stricter benchmarks Free allocation for industry Over 6 bn allowances will be given to industry for free (with a buffer of 450 mio allowances) Update of benchmark values for free allocation Product benchmarks are based on average GHG emissions of the best performing 10% of EU installations determine the level of free allocation to each installation Current benchmarks relate to and are outdated Updates for the values of all 54 benchmarks to preserve ambition level on the basis of data from (for ) and from (for ) 10

11 Low-carbon funds Several low-carbon funding mechanisms Support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewables as well as breakthrough technologies in industry in all Member States Support modernisation of energy sector through free allocation to the power sector in 10 lower income Member States Article 10c derogation (optional) Innovation Fund Modernisation Fund Redistribution of allowances 10% of allowances to be auctioned redistributed to lower income Member States Support modernisation of energy systems and just transition in 10 lower income Member States 11

12 2. EFFORT SHARING REGULATION 12

13 Belgium Greenhouse gas emission reduction in 2030 (compared to 2005) Based on GDP/capita -38.0% Adjustment for cost-efficiency +3.0% Legal commitment % Allowances from EU ETS +2.0% Credits from land-use and forestry +0.5% Minimum reduction -32.5% 2020 target -15% 13

14 Belgium's progress Effort Sharing BE 2030 target 14 Source: European Commission, EEA, Eurostat

15 3. Renewable Energy 15

16 Belgium has to do more to reach its 2020 target 16

17 Renewables policies contribute to reduce technology cost Onshore Wind Levelised Cost ($/MWh) Solar PV Module Cost ($/W) 1, y = 3,582.42x R² = H2 H Thailand Learning rate =19% Learning rate 19% R² = Germany US Brazil Learning rate 24.3% Current 2015 price ,000 10, ,000 1,000, ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to It is assumed the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. Current price is $0.61/W Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock 17

18 Global cumulative investment in the power sector with INDCs (IEA WEO2015) 18

19 4 A flexible European Electricity Market Boost wholesale market flexibility and provide clear price signals to facilitate the continuing penetration of renewable energies and ensure investments Enable active consumer participation and ensure that consumers are protected and benefit from progress in energy technologies Promote regional cooperation and provide a true European dimension to security of supply

20 5 - Energy Efficiency improvements Comprehensive policy framework (EED, EPBD, Eco-design, ) CO2&cars (130g/km in 2015, 95g/km in 2021, +/- 67g/km in 2030) Energy efficiency standards (light bulbs, appliances, electric motors ) & energy labelling (domestic appliances) Circular economy 20

21 Towards 2030: the EU power generation mix changes, in favour of renewables Significant development of renewable energy (mostly solar and wind), reaching up to 50% share Decline of electricity generation from solid fuels Gas-fired generation decreases until 2020, but increases thereafter EU power generation (net) by fuel (Twh) Source: PRIMES modelling, NTUA, E3M-Lab 21

22 Role of the EU Energy Union Governance To meet the Energy Union targets, notably on EE and RES Robust review process to add up national contribution and check on progress on delivery Process to take further actions at EU or national level if needed To enhance coherence and transparency through integrated plans by Member States Provide information on Member State policies Facilitate regional cooperation Improved investment planning To ensure compliance with the EU's international climate commitments Facilitative Dialogue in 2018 and global stocktakings thereafter 22

23 Conclusions 1. Decide asap an integrated climate and energy plan for 2030 and beyond Consolidated for Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels 2. Invest significantly more in renewable energy, storage and smart grids (transformation) 3. Rational approach to security of supply invest in interconnections make security of supply agreements with neighbouring countries decide binding date on nuclear phase-out keep an option on gas (existing and new) 23