The Age of the Anthropocene Systems Science for Global Transitions?

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1 The Age of the Anthropocene Systems Science for Global Transitions? Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General Chief Executive Officer IIASA Professor of Earth System Science, Wageningen, Netherlands

2 Human Enterprise population Wealth Investments The changing human enterprise, from 1750 to Damming of rivers Water use Fertiliser use Note that arround 1950 human activities began to accelerate sharply. Urban population Paper use MacDonalds restaurants Motor vehicles Number of telephones Tourism

3 Responses CO 2 concentration N 2 O concentration CH 4 concentration The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the acceleration in the human enterprise. Ozone depletion Fisheries depletion Temperature change Coastal structures Large floods Coastal biogeochemistry Loss of forests Increase of agriculture Species extinctions From: Steffen et al. 2004

4 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

5 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOOD

6 FOOD 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO) By 2030, the world s population will have increased by one billion (IIASA) Agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)

7 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES WATER

8 Worldwide Water Use by Region Europe North Am erica Africa Asia South Am erica Australia& Pacific

9 Water Use in km^3 per year Worldwide Water Use by Sector Agriculture Indus try Hous eholds Res ervoires Total

10 Global Reservoir Database Location (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface, Purpose of dam, Year of construction, 13,382dams,

11 WATER ~ 900 million people have inadequate access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF) Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water) Hydropower supplies about 20% of the world s electricity (ICOLD)

12 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES ENERGY

13 ENERGY 2.5 billion people are without access to modern energy (IIASA/GEA) World primary energy demand expected to increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA) Energy production and consumption contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)

14 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES CLIMATE CHANGE

15 Many times we lose sight of the scale of the problem Annual current global emissions (without deforestation) 6.6 gigatons of carbon gigatons of carbon dioxide Global reservoirs Atmosphere is 750 gigatons (carbon) Standing biomass is 650 gigatons (carbon) Terrestrial soils have 1500 gigatons (carbon) Increase in Atmosphere since pre-industrial period gigatons carbon Just 1 gigaton is a lot

16 One gigaton is Greater than the mass of all the humans on the planet Greater than the annual global production of iron and steel 2740 Empire State Buildings or 77 Empire State Buildings made out of solid lead 142,857,142 African elephants That s enough elephants stacked on top of each other to reach from Earth to the moon and halfway back

17 CLIMATE CHANGE Eleven of the last twelve years ( ) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC) Average temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 C by 2100 (IPCC) 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)

18 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES POVERTY & EQUITY

19 POVERTY & EQUITY Over 24,000 children die each day due to poverty (UNICEF) 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day (World Bank) Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a consequence of it. (FAO)

20 What do we know about global change from the science perspective? Last Century = Century of Successive Milestones in Scientific Understanding of the Functioning of the Earth System

21 WMO WWW s space-based component of the Global Observing System (2004) Unparalleled international cooperation has been achieved in satellite activities*

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24 MODIS WEEKLY LAND+OCEAN GPP

25 Svante Arrhenius:The First Climate Prediction Arrhenius quantifies in 1896 the changes in surface temperature (approx. 5 C) to be expected from a doubling in CO 2, based on the concept of glass bowl effect introduced in 1824 by Joseph Fourier

26 The Precursor: Wladimir I. Vernadsky The biosphere is a unique region of the Earth s crust occupied by life. There are no stronger chemical forces at the earth surface [...] than living organisms taken in their totality. 1926

27 A Century of Successive Milestones 1940 s and 1950 s: development of numerical weather prediction (Smagorinski, Charney, von Neumann) 1950 s and 1960 s: development of the first comprehensive climate models (Manabe) 1957: Sputnik is launched 1969: The first picture of the Earth is made from space (Apollo)

28 A Century of Successive Milestones The ocean seen as a dynamical component of the Climate system The conveyor belt (W. Broecker) The thermohaline circulation (W. Munk) Ventilation of the deep ocean (H. Stommel and P. Rhines) The biological pump for carbon

29 A Century of Successive Milestones The role of the biosphere and in the Climate system Identification of the missing CO 2 sink as being terrestrial ecosystems (Keeling, Sr and Jr., Tans) Importance of vegetation-albedo feedback (e.g., instability of the Sahara by Charney) The role of the biosphere in controlling the chemical composition of the natural atmosphere The importance of large wildfires

30 A Century of Successive Milestones The atmosphere as a miner s canary of the climate system Increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 (D. Keeling) Stratospheric ozone depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole (Crutzen, Molina, Rowland) The oxidation potential of the atmosphere: the OH radical and tropospheric ozone as a global pollutant (Levy, Weinstock, Crutzen)

31 A Century of Successive Milestones The Earth as a nonlinear system The Vostock Ice core (Oeschger, Lorius) The Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles The CLAW hypothesis (R. Charlson, M. Andreae, et al.) The Lorenz attractors The realization of the importance of the carbon cycle (B. Bolin, R. Revelle) The iron fertilization (J. Martin)

32 A propos. Why are we making such a little progress towards sustainable transitions?

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34 Global Challenges are inextricably linked: Need for System Approach Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

35 THE EARLY 1970s Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

36 Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA

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38 22 NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS International, independent, interdisciplinary Research on major global problems Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis

39 RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs = Systems Analysis

40 ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: PAST SUCCESSES Dynamic Systems Multi-criteria decision analysis Adaptive dynamics theory Game theory Agent-based modeling Stochastic optimization NEW RESEARCH Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions Integrated Modeling and Decision Support Advanced Systems Analysis Forum

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42 2030 Energy Goals Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

43 INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

44 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass

45 EJ Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by Nuclear phase-out (policy) Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

46 EJ Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN Oil phase-out (necessary) Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

47 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~50% renewables by 2030 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

48 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy China Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

49 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Europe Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~30% renewables by Source: Riahi et al, 2012

50 Total Global Policy Costs ( ) Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% 1.0% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

51 RESEARCH INTO POLICY : Global Energy Assessment involving 500 experts around the world 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to Un Secretary-General s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern energy services 2. Double the global rate of improvements in energy efficiency 3. Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 51

52 RESEARCH INTO POLICY 2011: IIASA model GAINS identifies 16 measures to curb the release of either black carbon or methane (pollutants that harm human or plant health while simultaneously exacerbating climate change). Feb 2012: US State Secretary Hillary Clinton launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants Today, CCAC has 33 member countries, 39 International Organizations and IIASA s Markus Amann on scientific committee DOI: /science

53 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION India - Base Year Billion Males Females Population in Millions

54 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION RAPID DEVELOPMENT India - Projections SSP Billion Males Females Population in Millions

55 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION RAPID DEVELOPMENT India - Projections SSP Billion Males Females Population in Millions

56 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION India - Base Year Billion Males Females Population in Millions

57 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION STALLED DEVELOPMENT India - Projections SSP Billion Males Females Population in Millions

58 Age (in Years) PROJECTING INDIA S FUTURE POPULATION STALLED DEVELOPMENT India - Projections SSP Billion Males Females Population in Millions

59 Age (in Years) Age (in Years) IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON POPULATION RAPID VERSUS STALLED DEVELOPMENT India - Projections SSP1 1.5 Billion Males Population in Millions Females India - Projections SSP3 2.1 Billion Males Population in Millions Females

60 WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE ARCTIC?

61 What do we mean by Arctic? and what are the challenges? Arctic Circle (66 33'N) 1. Decision makers perspective 2. Environmental perspective 3. Economic perspective 4. Researcher perspective

62 Decision makers perspective Arctic strategies of Canada, US, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Russia Shared features Focus on strong position, credible defence, Economic growth Sustainability World leader in Arctic research Arctic Council Dialogue forum about the code of conduct Peaceful cooperation Role and nature of observations, membership criteria Disaster management NO discussion on security issues, NOR economic exploitation Arctic parliamentarians Legislation of the area role of the Arctic Council Role of indigenous people Geopolitical friction in the region Nature of global warming unclear Race of resources Different regulatory requirements > delays

63 Natural resources Oil and gas Undiscovered 90 bn barrels of oil, 1669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 44 bn barrels of natural gas liquids > 412 barrel s of oil and oil equivalent natural gas Mineral deposits Rare earth minerals, cobalt, lithium and molybdenum Zink, led, silver Sea Routes: Cargo ship activity increased by 36 percent and tanker activity 114 percent from 2008 till 2011 (AP) 20% of the worlds fish catch (primary product rise in the Russian zone) (E1) GDP per capita is very high

64 Substance Research Pattern holistic PEEX Association of Polar early career scientists (APECS) Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG) International Arctic Social Sciences Association (IASSA) WRCP World Climate Research Program European Polar Board (EPB) The Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) WWRP-PPP Arctic Technology Centre (ARTEK) Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) specific CAS WWRP The Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response Working Group (EPPR) Forum of Arctic Research Operators (FARO) specific Arctic Contaminants Action Program (ACAP) The Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group (PAME) University of Arctic Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) integrative Methodology

65 Conflicting interests? PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS NO DATA GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY LITTORAL STATES SHARED RESOURCES MAXIMIZED EXISTENCE COOPERATION AND PEACE

66 ARCTIC IS IN TRANSITION AND IN THE NEED FOR.. Holistic, System Science approach Integrating stakeholders, disciplines, issues, information, methods, regional to global Plausible scenarios and outlook ( )

67 Arctic Extremely complex system Complex system within the complex Earth system Interactions and feedbacks Sensitive issues involved Large number of actors Local, regional and global Sectoral studies Limited-scope integrated assessments IIASA Specialized in complex systems Interdisciplinary Global systems expert Neutral, independent Involves all actors Global regional New type of framework: working network Holistic integrated approach

68 IIASA Arctic Futures framework Global economy Investments VALUES Trade Regional economy Oil and gas PRESSURE S ACTORS CO 2, CH 4, BC DRIVERS Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting

69 Global economy Investments Trade Regional economy Oil and gas CO 2, CH 4, BC Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting IIASA Arctic framework PRESSURE S VALUES DRIVERS Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global Culture National Institutional Equity Economic Common goods Security Transparency Trust Cooperation Sustainability Researchers ACTORS Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public

70 Global economy Investments Trade Regional economy Oil and gas CO 2, CH 4, BC Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting IIASA Arctic framework PRESSURE S VALUES DRIVERS Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global Culture National Institutional Equity Economic Common goods Security Transparency Trust Cooperation Sustainability Researchers ACTORS Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public Global <-> Regional States? Impacts? Responses? Feedbacks?

71 Equitable Governance of Common Goods Maxim Malevich

72 Common Goods Civil security Global climate Beneficial demography Clean air Prudent urbanization Social welfare Internet Fish and game Communal land

73 Maxim Malevich Cooperation

74 Maxim Malevich Free Riding

75 The anthropocene For the first time in the Earth s history are the major processes dominated by a single species: Homo notso-sapiens. The current era is therefore so unique that is has been labeled the Anthropocene What are the consequences and can we manage this?

76 The UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Washington Post 30 March 2005

77 VISION.. If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65) Photo: David McGrath

78 The Renaissance vision Sir Isaac Newton Principia

79 The Renaissance vision Sir Isaac Newton Principia The Anthropocene vision Terrestris Rationis Principia Your picture here????

80 Thank you and hope to welcome you soon at IIASA!!