Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

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1 Chn. Geogra. Sc (6) do: 1.17/s Emprcal Study on Effect of Industral Structure Change on Regonal Economc of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon CHEN Hongxa 1, LI Guopng 2 (1. School of Government, Central Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, Bejng 181, Chna; 2. School of Government, Pekng Unversty, Bejng 1871, Chna) Abstract: Based on the data of gross domestc product (GDP), ndustral added value and the proporton of ndustral employees from 2 to 28, ths paper studes the effect of ndustral structure change on the regonal economc growth of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon n Chna usng the shft-share method. The results show that: 1) In the 21st century, the ndustral output of three ndustres, namely, prmary, secondary, and tertary, and the GDP grew rapdly n the study perod. The tertary ndustry grew the fastest; t had the largest contrbuton to the GDP and meanwhle had become the most compettve ndustry n the metropoltan regon. 2) The development of ctes wthn the regon was not balanced. Frstly, compared wth Tanjn, Bejng, as one of the two core ctes, was more ratonal n the ndustral structure. Secondly, the surroundng eght ctes, whch are Shjazhuang, Qnhuangdao, Tangshan, Langfang, Baodng, Cangzhou, Zhangjakou, and Chengde, were all uncompettve than the two core ctes. 3) There was a great ndustral gradent n the regon (especally between the two core ctes and the ctes of Tangshan, Baodng, Zhangjakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang). As a result, t s foreseeable that the ndustry transfer n the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon wll be one of the trends n regonal development, and the ndustry transfer s nevtably to promote the regonal ntegraton. Keywords: Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon; economc growth; shft-share analyss; ndustral structure Ctaton: Chen Hongxa, L Guopng, 211. Emprcal study on effect of ndustral structure change on regonal economc growth of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon. Chnese Geographcal Scence, 21(6): do: 1.17/s Introducton Snce the onset of the 21st century, regonal economc development n Chna has been characterzed by the emergence of urban agglomeraton. Under the Eleventh Fve-year Plan ssued by the Natonal Development and Reform Commsson of the People s Republc of Chna, the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe (Jng-Jn-J) Regon, one of the typcal megalopolses or global cty regons n the East Coastal of Chna, s gven more attenton (Yu, 26). Over the past few years, nter-cty cooperaton wthn the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon has been promoted, and all three regons have ssued a seres of polces concernng regonal ntegraton. For example, to acheve rapd and sound development of urban economy, Bejng proposed a polcy to speed up the sgnfcant adjustment of ts economc structure and transform ts growth mode. Tanjn and Hebe adopted the same polcy. Regonal economc development s reflected by not only the growth of the overall economy but also the adjustment and optmzaton of the ndustry structure. Regonal dvson of labor and ratonal spatal dstrbuton of regonal ndustral structure are very sgnfcant to regonal development. Many economsts found that wth economc growth, the economc contrbuton of the prmary ndustry would declne gradually, but those of the secondary and tertary ndustres would ncrease gradu- Receved date: ; accepted date: Foundaton tem: Under the auspces of Major Program of Natonal Socal Scence Foundaton of Chna (No. 1ZD&22), Youth Research Project of Mnstry of Educaton (Humantes and Socal Scences) (No. 1YJC792), Central Unversty of Fnance and Economcs 121 Talent Project Fundaton for Youth Doctor Development (No. QBJGL214) Correspondng author: CHEN Hongxa. E-mal: chenhongxasff@163.com Scence Press, Northeast Insttute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS and Sprnger-Verlag Berln Hedelberg 211

2 Effect of Industral Structure Change on Regonal Economc of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon 79 ally (Kuznets, 1985; Chenery, 1991). In Chna, nterests n the regonal economc development of the Bejng- Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon have ncreased rapdly n the past decade (L et al., 24). Recently, more scholars have studed the regonal economc growth n Chna from the perspectve of technology spllovers (Tan et al., 21), exports, and foregn drect nvestments (Gao, 24). These scholars put forward recommendatons from dfferent perspectves to acheve the balanced development of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Regon. For example, L et al. (24) took the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Megalopols as a case to study the economc relatonshp wthn the regon, focusng on the ndustral structure, spatal structure, and dvson of labor, and analyzed the economc, socal, ecologcal, and spatal development statuses and trends from three spatal scales. Sun and Deng (26) agreed that the regonal dfference enlarged much n Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe regon snce 199, and the cooperatve development of regonal economy can be realzed possbly through reducng regonal dspartes, strengthenng the development of tertary ndustry and mprovng the traffc condtons n Hebe Provnce. Quan and Yang (1999) and Da (2) emphaszed the promoton of regonal ntegraton to accelerate regonal cooperaton wthn the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon. Sh and Luo (27) suggested developng ndustral clusters to acheve regonal cooperaton. In addton, usng census data on the frst economc analyss, Lu and He (27) analyzed the convergence of ndustral structure n Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe. The results showed that there was smlarty among the ndustral structures of the 13 ctes n Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon; however, the degree of smlarty decreased sgnfcantly wth further ndustral subdvson. The lterature above-mentoned showed that the ndustral structure had an mportant nfluence on regonal economc development. However, the metropoltan regon s a complex regon nvolvng economc, socal, spatal, and the other characterstcs. There are stll many theoretcal ssues to be resolved, such as how to measure the regonal cooperaton from the changes n ndustral structure, and how to measure the nfluence ndustral structure change on regonal economc growth. Ths paper analyzed the effect of ndustral structure change on regonal economc growth n Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe Metropoltan Regon usng shft-share analyss. Furthermore, applyng the data of the proporton of ndustral employees, ths paper studed the nternal structure of ndustry and ctes functons. 2 Materals and Methods 2.1 Study Area The Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon covers two muncpal ctes, Bejng and Tanjn, and eght ctes n Hebe Provnce, namely, Shjazhuang, Qnhuangdao, Tangshan, Langfang, Baodng, Cangzhou, Zhangjakou and Chengde (Fg. 1). Consderng the non-agrcultural characterstcs of an urban economy, ths paper manly confnes ts subject to cty area only. Enterng the 21st century, the nter-cty cooperaton wthn the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon s sgnfcantly acceleratng. In 29, the GDP of Bejng exceeded yuan, and that of Tanjn exceeded yuan, whle the GDP of the eght ctes n Hebe Provnce above-mentoned were relatvely lower. Although the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon has been regarded as an ntegral geographcal unt snce the 198s, the regonal dvson of labor among the ctes has been unsatsfactory. In fact, the functonal polycentrc structure wth reasonable labor and market dvsons s far from formng. Competton among ctes n the metropoltan area was becomng fercer (Tang and Xu, 28). Some studes showed that the Bejng- Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon experenced a perod of rapd development n the begnnng of the 21st century (Chen and L, 21). From 2 to 28, the amount of GDP and ndustral output showed a tendency of rapd growth. The average annual growth rates of the prmary, secondary, and tertary ndustres n the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan regon stood at 13.7%, 2.1% and 24%, respectvely. The average annual growth rate of GDP stood at 22% (Table 1). Based on the GDP data (Table 1), the contrbutons of the three ndustres to regonal economc grow are shown n Fg. 2. From 2 to 28, the contrbuton of the ndustry to the economc growth n Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon showed the followng characterstcs: the contrbuton of the prmary ndustry to the regonal economc growth was gradually reduced; the contrbuton of the tertary ndustry to the regonal economc

3 71 CHEN Hongxa, LI Guopng Fg. 1 Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon Table 1 Basc data n Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon n 2 and 28 ( 1 9 yuan) Cty GDP Prmary ndustry Secondary ndustry Tertary ndustry Bejng Tanjn Shjazhuang Tangshan Qnhuangdao Baodng Zhangjakou Chengde Cangzhou Langfang Source: Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna (22, 21) growth ncreased rapdly. So far, the tertary ndustry had become the man pllar of economc development of the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon. 2.2 Data sources Consderng the background of the Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe regonal cooperaton, the perod covered by ths study s between 2 and 28. Usng data on Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon from the Chna Statstcal Yearbook of (Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, 21 29) and the Regonal Eco- Fg. 2 Contrbuton rate of three ndustres to economc growth of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon

4 Effect of Industral Structure Change on Regonal Economc of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon 711 nomc Statstcal Yearbook of (Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, 23 21).The data appled n ths study are calculated at current prces. 2.3 Analyss methods The relatonshp between regonal growth and ndustral structure s often analyzed and decomposed nto varous effects usng the method called shft-share analyss. The shft-share method (SSM) s a useful technque to analyze the regonal economy n economc geography and regonal scence. Ths study uses the SSM to analyze the effect of ndustral structure on the regonal economc growth and decompose the economc growth of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon nto regonal share component, the ndustral mx component and compettve component. Accordng to shft-share analyss (Cu et al., 26), the total regonal economc growth (G) s the sum of regonal share component (N), ndustral mx component (P) and compettve component (D). The specfc content of the three components s descrbed as follows: (1) Regonal share component: N B R (1) where N denotes the regonal economc growth of a certan regon at the GDP growth rate of the entre study area; B denotes the output of ndustry at the base perod; R denotes the GDP growth rate of the entre regon. The equaton means that compared wth the actual growth, f the assumed growth s hgher, the total devaton from the entre regon studed s postve and otherwse negatve. (2) Industral mx component: P B R B R B ( R R) (2) where P denotes the dfferences between the growth of ndustry at the actual growth rate and the growth of ndustry at the regonal GDP growth rate; R denotes the growth rate of ndustry. Ths means that f P >, the regon s domnated by a fast-growng ndustry; f P <, the regon s domnated by a backward or declnng ndustry. (3) Compettve component: D B r B R B ( r R ) (3) where D denotes the dfferences between the growth of ndustry at the actual growth rate and the growth of ndustry at the regonal ndustry growth rate; r denotes the growth rate of ndustry n the study area. The relatonshp of the three components can be descrbed by the followng equaton: G N P D B R B ( R R) B ( r R ) (4) where G denotes the amount of regonal economc growth. Smlarly, regonal economc growth rate (G r ) can also be dvded nto GDP growth rate of the entre regon R, ndustral mx component (R * R) and compettve component (G r R * ): G r = R + (R * R) + (G r R * ) (5) Where R * denotes the regonal economc growth acheved through the growth of the three ndustres at the regonal growth rate: * B ( R 1) R (6) B 1 Ths means that f a regon s domnated by a fastgrowng ndustry, (R * R) > ; otherwse, (R * R) <. If the compettveness of a regon s hgher than that of the entre study area, (G r R * ) > ; otherwse, (G r R * ) <. 3 Results The followng results are obtaned based on the SSM (Table 2). Frstly, tertary ndustry led the development of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon, the followng two ndustres were secondary and prmary ndustry. Development wthn the regon s not balanced: the tertary ndustry of Bejng was well developed. In 27, the proporton of three ndustral output n Bejng was In 28, ths proporton changed to As a well-establshed ndustral cty n Chna wth a long hstory of ndustral development, Tanjn has a good foundaton of ndustry, and ts secondary ndustry has mantaned a strong growth n the past 1 years, accountng for the largest share of GDP. However, the tertary ndustry lags behnd the secondary ndustry. In 28, the proporton of three ndustral output value n Tanjn was In the eght ctes of

5 712 CHEN Hongxa, LI Guopng Table 2 Results obtaned through shft-share method n 2 28 Total economc growth Regonal share component Industral mx component Compettve component Total devaton ( 1 6 yuan) ( 1 6 yuan) ( 1 6 yuan) ( 1 6 yuan) ( 1 6 yuan) Bejng Tanjn Shjazhuang Tangshan Qnhuangdao Baodng Zhangjakou Chengde Cangzhou Langfang Hebe Provnce, prmary ndustry s the most developed, followed by the secondary ndustry. The tertary ndustry s consdered backward. Secondly, among the 1 ctes covered by the study, only Bejng and Tanjn show postve devaton. Furthermore, Bejng was the only cty wth postve values for P and D, ndcatng that ts urban economc development was domnated by the tertary ndustry. The results were consstent wth the overall trend of regonal development. In addton, n the growth rate of the total devaton, compettveness had the largest contrbuton at 21.6%. The growth rate of the ndustral mx component was 4.96%, ndcatng that Bejng had the absolute advantage n ndustral structure and compettveness. The ndustral mx component n Tanjn was 3.67%, but the compettve component was postve at 11.2%, ndcatng that although the overall economc compettveness of Tanjn (measured by the ndustry structure) was stronger, ts tertary ndustry lagged behnd compared wth that of Bejng. Thrdly, among the eght secondary ctes n the regon, only Tangshan had a postve total devaton (194.53%). The ndexes of the other seven ctes are all negatve. The ndustral mx component for Tangshan was negatve at 15.79%, but the compettve component was postve at 21.31%, ndcatng that the cty's economy was the strongest among the eght secondary ctes. In contrast, Shjazhuang and Qnhuangdao were dfferent, as the contrbutons of ther ndustral mx components were postve and those of ther compettve component were negatve. Ths ndcates that the tertary ndustry was the most compettve ndustry n those ctes, but ther overall economc compettveness (measured by the ndustry structure) remaned weaker. In the ctes of Baodng, Zhangjakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang, both ther ndustral mx components and compettve components had negatve contrbutons, ndcatng that ther ndustral structure and compettveness were at a dsadvantage. Consequently, the total urban economc growth of these ctes was less than the economc growth of the entre regon. Industral structure plays an mportant role n regonal economc development. It reflects a dfferent stage of economc development n dfferent countres or regons. The nternal structure of the ndustry n a regon reflects ts economc potentals (Tu, 21). Furthermore, usng the data of ndustral employees proportons n 28, ths paper analyzed the nternal structure of ndustry and studes the ctes functons n the regon. The classfcaton of employees n the 1 ctes of the Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe Metropoltan Regon was shown n Fg. 3. As shown n Fg. 3, most employees n the 1 ctes of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon were n the manufacturng sector. However, the specfc proportons of employees between ctes were dfferent. Bejng and Tanjn were dfferent n educaton and health, socal securty, and so on, formng a complementary functon. Industral structure was the rato of ndustry producton and the assocaton mode of mutual nterdependence and mutual restrant. Industral structure was n the domnant poston n the economc structure. It had a decsve nfluence on economc growth. The re-

6 Effect of Industral Structure Change on Regonal Economc of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon 713 EP. employees proportons; B. Mnng ndustry; C. Manufacturng; D. Electrc, gas and water producton and supply; E. Buldng ndustry; F. Transport, storage and post and telecommuncatons; H.Wholesale and retal trade; I. Accommodaton, caterng ndustry; J. Fnance; K. Real estate; L. Leasng and busness servces; M. Scentfc research, techncal servces and geologcal prospectng; P. Educaton; Q. Health, socal securty and socal welfare; S. Publc Management and Socal Organzaton Source: Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna (21) Fg. 3 Proporton of ndustral employees n Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon n 28 sults showed that, on the one hand, Tanjn's tertary ndustry need to be further enhanced. Moreover, the secondary ctes were generally not strong enough to promote the development of the metropoltan regon. On the other hand, the numercal component of the ndustral structure showed that the ctes of Tangshan, Baodng, Zhangjakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang took absolute advantage of the secondary ndustry. Moreover, there was a great ndustral gradent n the regon (ndustry transfer s n the advanced stage of regonal cooperaton), and ths wll help promote ndustry transfer wthn the economc development of the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon. As the thrd economc development polar of Chna, the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon s a polycentrc urban area. On the one hand, n a recent study, the estmaton of the polycentrc densty functon showed the concentraton of populaton nto the core urban centers durng the 198s, the coexstence of the concentraton of populaton nto mult-urban centers, and the decentralzaton of populaton from the core urban centers durng the 199s (Sun et al., 29). On the other hand, usng the SSM, ths paper explaned the polycentrc urban area based on the regonal dvson of labor. As shown n Fg. 3 and Table 2, but untl 29, Hebe Provnce certanly can not be the center of the metropoltan regon, and the core ctes were stll Bejng and Tanjn. 4 Conclusons From the perspectve of regonal ntegraton, based on an analyss on the current status of Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe regonal economc development as well as the change n the ndustry structure, ths paper ponted out that the core ssue about the regonal economy was to

7 714 CHEN Hongxa, LI Guopng upgrade the ndustry structure of the 1 ctes by not only upgradng ndustral capacty but also promotng the lnkage between optmzaton of the regonal ndustral structure and the regonal dvson of labor. In addton, some conclusons can be drawn: the tertary ndustry had the largest contrbuton to the regonal GDP and became the most compettve ndustry n the metropoltan regon; up to now, the development of ctes n the regon was not balanced, Bejng and Tanjn were the two core ctes, and Bejng had the absolute advantage n ndustral structure and compettveness. Besdes these, there was a great ndustral gradent n those regons (especally between the two core ctes and the ctes of Tangshan, Baodng, Zhangjakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang). Therefore, t can be expected, wth deepenng of regonal cooperaton, the pace of the ndustry transfer and regonal dvson of labor wll accelerate, and by then, each of the ten ctes n the metropoltan regon wll develop dfferent domnant ndustres and regonal compettveness wll enhance sgnfcantly. References Chen Hongxa, L Guopng, 21. Study on spatal-temporal dfferences of economc coordnatve development n Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe. Urban Studes, 17(5): (n Chnese) Chenery H B (Zhu Dongha, Huang Zhong translaton), Structural Change and Development Polcy. Bejng: Economc Scence Press. (n Chnese) Cu Gonghao, We Qngquan, Chen Zongxn, 26. Regonal Analyses and Plannng. Bejng: The Hgher Educaton Press. (n Chnese) Da Xuezhen, 2. Spatal ntegraton of Bejng and Tanjn. Economc Geography, 2(6): (n Chnese) Gao Tng, 24. Regonal ndustral growth: Evdence from Chnese ndustres. Regonal Scence and Urban Economc,34(1): do: 1.116/S (3)23-1 Hao Shouy, An Husen, 24. Regonal Economcs (2nd Edton). Bejng: Economc Scence Press. (n Chnese) Kuznets S (Chang Xun translaton), Economc of Natons: Total Output and Producton Structure. Bejng: Commercal Press. (n Chnese) L Guopng, Zhang Wenzhong, Sun Teshan et al., 24. Structure, Dvson of Labor, and Development Strateges n Captal Area. Bejng: Chna Urban Press. (n Chnese) Lu Zuol, He Canfe, 27. An emprcal nvestgaton of structural convergence n the area of Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe. Geography and Geographc Informaton Scence, 23(5): (n Chnese) Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, Chna Statstcal Yearbook, Bejng: Chna Statstcs Press. (n Chnese) Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, 22, 21. Chna Cty Statstcal Yearbook, 21, 29. Bejng: Chna Statstcs Press. (n Chnese) Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, Chna Statstcal Yearbook for Regonal Economy, Bejng: Chna Fnancal & Economc Publshng House. Chna Statstcal Yearbook for Regonal Economy, Bejng: Chna Statstcs Press. (n Chnese) Quan Xaohong, Yang Kazhong, The coordnated development between Bejng and Tanjn. Economc Geography, 19(2): 6 1. (n Chnese) Sh Zhanzhong, Luo Shougu, 27. Metropoltan Economc Integraton and Integraton of Industral Clusterng. Shangha: Shangha Sanlan Shudan Press. (n Chnese) Sun Juwen, Deng Huhu, 26. A postve analyss on regonal convergence n Jng-Jn-J Regon. Geography and Geo-Informaton Scence, 22(5): (n Chnese) Sun Teshan, L Guopng, Lu Mnghua, 29. Concentraton and decentralzaton of populaton n the Bejng-Tanjn-Hebe Metropoltan Regon and ts determnants: A regonal densty functon approach. Acta Geographca Snca, 64(8): (n Chnese) Tang Yan, Xu Jngquan, 28. Regonal governance of the captal metropoltan regon: A comparatve study of Berln-Brandenburg and Bejng. 44th ISOCARP Congress. Avalable at: Tan L, Wang H, Chen Y J, 21. Spatal externaltes n Chna regonal economc growth. Chna Economc Revew, 21(1): S2 S31. do: 1.116/j.checo Tu Yan, 21. Industral restructurng and regonal economy development research: Take Pearl Rver Delta Regon as a case. Economc and Socal Development, 8(3): (n Chnese) Yu Taofang, 26. Structure and restructurng of Bejng-Tanjn- Hebe Megalopols n Chna. Chnese Geographcal Scence, 16(1): 1 8. do: 1.17/s