Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption

2 Energy, Climate and the Environment Series Series Editor: David Elliott, Professor of Technology, Open University, UK Titles include: David Elliott (editor) NUCLEAR OR NOT? Does Nuclear Power Have a Place in a Sustainable Future? David Elliott (editor) SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Opportunities and Limitations Horace Herring and Steve Sorrell (editors) ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION The Rebound Effect Catherine Mitchell THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Joseph Szarka WIND POWER IN EUROPE Politics, Business and Society Energy, Climate and the Environment Series Standing Order ISBN You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBN quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England

3 Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption The Rebound Effect Edited by Horace Herring Visiting Research Fellow, Energy and Environment Research Unit The Open University, UK and Steve Sorrell Senior Fellow, Sussex Energy Group University of Sussex, UK

4 Editorial matter, selection, introduction and conclusion Horace Herring and Steve Sorrell 2009 All remaining chapters respective authors 2009 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Energy efficiency and sustainable consumption: the rebound effect/ [edited by] Horace Herring and Steve Sorrell. p. cm. (Energy, climate and the environment) Includes index. 1. Energy consumption. I. Herring, Horace. II. Sorrell, Steve, 1963 HD9502.A2E dc

5 Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Boxes Series Editor Preface Notes on the Contributors vii viii ix x xii 1 Introduction 1 Steve Sorrell and Horace Herring Part I Direct Rebound Effects 21 2 The Evidence for Direct Rebound Effects 23 Steve Sorrell 3 Fuel Efficiency and Automobile Travel in Germany: Don t Forget the Rebound Effect! 47 Manuel Frondel, Jörg Peters and Colin Vance Part II Economy-wide Rebound Effects 67 4 Modelling the Economy-wide Rebound Effect 69 Grant Allan, Michelle Gilmartin, Peter G. McGregor, J. Kim Swales and Karen Turner 5 Specifying Technology for Analysing Rebound 99 Harry D. Saunders 6 Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth: the Rebound Effect as a Driver 119 Robert U. Ayres and Benjamin Warr 7 Exploring Jevons Paradox 136 Steve Sorrell v

6 vi Contents Part III Rebound Effects and Sustainable Consumption Time-use Rebound Effects: an Activity-based View of Consumption 167 Mikko Jalas 9 Rebound and Rational Public Policy-Making 185 Roger Levett 10 Avoiding Rebound through a Steady-state Economy 204 Jørgen S. Nørgård 11 Sufficiency and the Rebound Effect 224 Horace Herring 12 Conclusion 240 Steve Sorrell and Horace Herring Index 262

7 List of Figures 1.1 Illustration of rebound effects for consumers Illustration of rebound effects for producers Classification scheme for rebound effects Alternative specifications for production functions involving energy Production structure of each sector in the 25 sector/ commodity UKENVI framework The changes in the price of output from a 5% improvement in energy efficiency The changes in sectoral output from a 5% improvement in energy efficiency Capital-energy substitution Effective capital-energy substitution The extended Salter cycle of growth Exergy and useful work consumption, US (index 1900 = 1) Empirical and estimated GDP for US Aggregate efficiency of conversion of exergy to useful work for the US and Japan Energy efficiency, positive feedbacks and economic growth Conditions under which rebound effects may be large or small The time use rebound effects of introducing new household services: an example of a commercial lawn-mowing service with TV watching as the substitute activity Vicious circles in transport policy Factor 10 reduction The whole economy The choice between more income and reduced work time The hierarchy of motives: from energy sources to the meaning of life Emissions for hypothetical four-person household in 2030 (tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum) 236 vii

8 List of Tables 2.1 Econometric estimates of the long-run direct rebound effect for consumer energy sources in the OECD Variable definitions and descriptive statistics Estimation results for Model 1 and the rebound based on Definition Estimation results for Model 3 and the rebound based on Definition CGE studies to date, critical details with each paper and estimated rebound effects Central case results for 5% improvement in industrial energy efficiency (percentage changes from base-year values) Long-run results for sensitivity analysis for 5% improvement in industrial energy efficiency (% change from base year) Short- and long-run results for 5% improvement in industrial energy efficiency for different labour-market closures (% change from base year) Effect of different technology combinations on energy use and output Seven centuries of lighting in the UK Trends in second-law conversion efficiencies of primary conversion processes in the US (average % efficiency in specified year) Different models of economic development 255 viii

9 List of Boxes 1.1 Indirect rebound effects Classifying rebound effects The declining direct rebound effect Direct rebound effects for clothes washing Generalised technology in production functions Heat pumps Sam Schurr and the rebound effect Endogeneity and the rebound effect 148 ix

10 Series Editor Preface David Elliott Concerns about the potential environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change have led to a major international debate over what could and should be done to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, which are claimed to be the main cause. There is still a scientific debate over the likely scale of climate change, and the complex interactions between human activities and climate systems, but, in the words of no less than Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, I say the debate is over. We know the science, we see the threat, and the time for action is now. Whatever we do now, there will have to be considerable social and economic adaptation to the impacts of climate change-preparing for increased flooding and other climate-related problems. However, the more fundamental response is to try to reduce or avoid the human activities that are seen as causing climate change. That means, primarily, trying to reduce or eliminate emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels, for example in vehicles and power stations. Given that around 80 per cent of the energy used in the world at present comes from these sources, this will be a major technological, economic and political undertaking. It will involve reducing demand for energy (for example, via lifestyle choice changes), producing and using whatever energy we still need more efficiently (that is, getting more from less), and supplying the reduced amount of energy from non-fossil sources (basically switching over to renewables and/or nuclear power). Each of these options opens up a range of social, economic and environmental issues. Industrial society and modern consumer cultures have been based on the ever-expanding use of relatively cheap fossil fuels, so the changes required will inevitably be challenging. Perhaps equally inevitable are disagreements and conflicts over the merits and demerits of the various options and in relation to the strategies and policies for pursuing them. These conflicts and associated debates sometimes concern technical issues, but there are usually also underlying political and ideological commitments and agendas which shape, or at least colour, the ostensibly technical debates. In particular, at times, technical assertions can be used to buttress specific policy frameworks in ways which subsequently prove to be flawed. x

11 Series Editor Preface xi The aim of this series is to provide texts which lay out the technical, environmental and political issues relating to the various proposed policies for responding to climate change. The focus is not primarily on the science of climate change, or on the technological detail, although there will be accounts of the state of the art, to aid assessment of the viability of the various options. However, the main focus is the policy conflicts over which strategy to pursue. The series adopts a critical approach and attempts to identify flaws in emerging policies, propositions and assertions. In particular, it seeks to illuminate counter-intuitive assessments, conclusions and new perspectives. The aim is not simply to map the debates, but to explore their structure, their underlying assumptions and their limitations. Texts are incisive and authoritative sources of critical analysis and commentary, indicating clearly the divergent views that have emerged and also identifying the shortcomings of these views. However, the books do not simply provide overviews, or abstract reflections, they also offer concrete policy prescriptions. The present volume looks critically at the role that the more efficient use of energy might play in mitigating climate change. While ostensibly it seems no more than common sense to believe that increasing efficiency will reduce energy use and therefore emissions, in fact this is not necessarily the outcome. Despite significant increases in energy efficiency, energy use in most sectors has continued to increase. This book looks at the historic failure to reduce consumption via improved efficiency, focusing on the importance of the so-called rebound effect, and at how we might do better in the future. The simple message is that achieving reductions in energy use, and consequent greenhouse gas emissions, is not just a question of technology. What also matters is how we use the technology and how we match our expectations of material consumption to the limitations of the planet s climate and ecological systems. The debate over the need for sustainable consumption is only just beginning, and as yet there are few examples of significant and successful practice. This book seeks to move the discussion on by exposing some of the fallacies about the role of energy efficiency, while at the same time addressing some of the contentious issues surrounding the concept of sustainable consumption. In particular, and controversially, it concludes that, while the promotion of energy efficiency has an important role to play in achieving a sustainable economy, it is unlikely to be sufficient while rich countries continue to pursue high levels of economic growth.

12 Notes on the Contributors Grant Allan is a Research Fellow in the Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde. A graduate of Strathclyde and Edinburgh Universities, since 2004 he has undertaken research through the EPSRC SuperGen Marine programme. His research interests are in regional and national energy-economy-environment modelling. Robert U. Ayres joined INSEAD at Fontainebleau, France in 1992 and became the first Chair of Management and the Environment, as well as the founder of CMER which he directed from Now retired, he is still active as Emeritus Professor and produces numerous publications in the field of ecological and environmental economics. Manuel Frondel is Head of the Department of Environment and Resources at RWI Essen. His research interests include applied econometrics in the fields of environmental, resource and energy economics, such as methodological issues on the evaluation of policy instruments, the analysis of energy and water demand, and the substitution of energy by non-energy inputs. Michelle Gilmartin is currently undertaking a PhD studentship at the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde. A graduate of Strathclyde and Warwick Universities, her PhD studies are funded through the EPSRC SuperGen Marine programme. Her research interests are Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling, macroeconomic modelling and the economics of renewable energy. Horace Herring is a freelance writer and energy researcher, and is a Visiting Research Fellow in the Sustainable Technologies Group at the Open University, England. His research interests include energy efficiency, environmental history and sustainable consumption. Mikko Jalas is a research fellow at the Department of Organisation and Management at Helsinki School of Economics, Finland. He received his doctoral degree in 2006 and has published a number of journal articles and book chapters on the environmental impacts of consumption and xii

13 Notes on the Contributors xiii time use. His current research interests cover time politics, as well as speed and rhythm of consumption. Roger Levett is a partner in Levett-Therivel sustainability consultants. He specialises in public policy, planning and appraisal for sustainability. Peter G. McGregor is Professor in the Fraser of Allander Institute and Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, as well as a member of the Centre for Public Policy for Regions, Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde, Scotland. He has research interests in economoy-energyenvironment interactions, multi-sectoral regional economic modelling and the economics of devolution. Jørgen S. Nørgård has since 1970 worked mostly at the Technical University of Denmark, investigating and teaching how to achieve environmental sustainability through changes in technology, economics, lifestyles etc., with a focus of energy savings. Now retired, he is still an active writer and researcher. Jörg Peters studied economics at the University of Cologne and the ENS de Cachan, Paris, and joined RWI in March His research focus is on survey and evaluation methodology and energy demand analysis. He is currently managing several research projects on the evaluation of development interventions in rural Africa. Harry D. Saunders is Managing Director of Decision Processes Incorporated, a management consulting firm in the United States. His hobby is research. He does unfunded research in theoretical biology, criminal and constitutional law, and energy economics. His wife and four children believe this is a ridiculous hobby. Steve Sorrell is a Senior Fellow in the Sussex Energy Group at SPRU, Sussex University. His research interests include energy efficiency in industry and commerce, climate policy and emissions trading, and the implementation of environmental regulation. He has just completed a two-year study for the UK Energy Research Centre on the Rebound Effect. J. Kim Swales is a Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde, as well as a member of the Centre for Public Policy for Regions, Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde.

14 xiv Notes on the Contributors Karen Turner is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde. She has worked with the FAI regional modelling team since Her main research area is accounting and modelling energy-economy-environment interaction using input-ouput and CGE techniques. Colin Vance has worked since 2006 in the Department of Environment and Resources of RWI Essen. In previous positions with the US Environmental Protection Agency and the German Aerospace Centre, his research focused on spatial econometric and land use policy issues. His current work addresses the determinants of transport and energy demand in the residential sector. Benjamin Warr joined INSEAD at Fontainebleau, France in 2001 and is now a Senior Research Fellow in the Social Innovation Centre. His interdisciplinary research involves investigation of the historical role of energy and technological progress in generating wealth.