Harald Sverdrup 1, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir 1, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir 2, Deniz Koca 3,

Transcription

1 Harald Sverdrup 1, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir 1, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir 2, Deniz Koca 3, 1 Industrial Engineering, University of Iceand, Reykjavik, Iceland, 2 Earth Science, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland 3 Center for Ecology and Climate, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

2 STEPS ON THE WAY STANDING ON THE SHOULDERS OF OTHERS ; World1-World2; Forrester team, MIT; Industrial dynamics, urban dynamics, world dynamics, the first pioneering basic concept for how a World model may be put together. The model was simplified and aggregated to a high level because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Forrester 1961, 1969, 1971) (Economy-oriented) ; World3; Meadows team, MIT; World dynamics and limits to growth. The model was more elaborate than World2, significantly better parameterized and described in a book Dynamics of Growth in a Final World (Meadows et al., 1972, 1974). The model had significant simplifications because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Resources-, environment- and economy-oriented) ; WORLD4 - WORLD5 - WORLD6; Sverdrup team, University of Lund (LTH) and University of Iceland (HI). WORLD6 has reality-based market mechanisms and simulates commodity-, product- and resource price dynamics internally. WORLD6 handles the global economic and financial development, and captures economic cycles of growth, stagnation, and decline. The economy is limited by natural, physical and social capacities. The modules are linked inside so that different resource and policy aspects can be addressed. The model is developed in the STELLA System Dynamics software (Sverdrup et al., 2013, 2018, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014, Lorenz et al., 2017). WORLD6 is a new development and has no parts included from the earlier models mentioned (Nature-, resources-, environment-, ecosystems-, population-, society-, politics-, governance-, and economy-oriented)

3 THE WORLD6 MODEL HAS BEEN A LONG JOURNEY, STARTING IN 2007, INVOLVING SEVERAL DEVELOPMENT TEAMS The Gold project ( The global trade with precious metals; Metals modelling - gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium; Norway and Sweden) EU Converge project ( Population, phosphorus and sustainable food production; Britain, Iceland, Sweden, Hungary) The Real Change Project (2008 -Tranforming society to sustainability through systemic leadership; Sweden) The German SIMRESS project ( Sustainable resource use and the challenges of the energiewende. Germany, Sweden, Iceland) The EU Valumics project ( Sustainable food supply, value and decision chains: Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Czech Republic, Finland)

4 WORLD6 OVERVIEW 2018 VERSION 6.302

5 WORLD6 ECONOMIC MODULE

6 WORLD6 MODEL AS A STELLA ARCHITECT DIAGRAM

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8 THE FEEDBACK SYSTEM OF PRODUCTION, SUPPLY, DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION

9 THE PRICE IS SIMUATED DYNAMICALLY, USING SYSTEMIC CAUSALITIES DEPENDING ON THE KIND OF MARKET Market dynamics Biased market Oligarchic market Command and control

10 WORLD6 BASE-LINE RESULTS; LIFE AND DEATH Basic run population Phosphorus rock supply

11 DEMAND, SUPPLY, MARKET PRICES AND REALITY THE PRICE MODEL WORKS IN TESTS Market prices for; Energy: oil, coal, natural gas, uranium, thorium, solar PV, wind, hydropower, geothermal, biofuels Metals: copper, nickel, tantalum, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, zinc, lead, gold, platinum, palladium, aluminium, indium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, lithium, germanium, rare, earths, wolfram, tin, niobium, rhenium, tin, antimony, iron, manganese, chromium, nickel, stainless steel Materials: Cement, gravel, sand, cut stone, roundwood, sawn wood, paper, plastics, Fertilizer: Phosphorus rock Food: grain, coffee, salmon, beef, maize, milk, butter

12 SUPPLY OF KEY ELEMENTS MAY BECOMEVERY TIGHT

13 RESOURCE QUALITY IS CONSISTENTLY DECLINING FOR ALL RESOURCES Iron, Manganese, Chromium, Nickel Copper, Zinc, Lead

14 COPPER TAKING STOCK OF THE SITUATION

15 POPULATION SIZE MATTERS FOR SUSTAINABILITY Population scenarios Copper supply per person per year

16 PRICES, AMOUNTS PRODUCED AND MANUFACTURED AND ACTIVITY GIVES GDP

17 HARD RESOURCE SCARCITY LIMITS PHOTOVOLTAICS NECESSITY TO COMBINE ALL TECHNOLOGIES Ge, Ga, CdTe, SiAg Fossil fuels (Oil, gas, coal, peat, uranium, thorium); Source of energy is unsustainable and resource stocks are declining Resources use for extraction are sustainable Technology-based energy (Photovoltaic, wind); Source of energy is sustainable Resources use for extraction are partly unsustainable Renewable energy (Hydropower, geothermal, some biofuels); Source of energy is sustainable Resources use for extraction is sustainable Conditioned on sustainable extraction levels

18 FROM BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TO MAKING THE «MAX 2 O UP» GOAL Business as usual Energy production Energy supply per person WORLD6 CC impact Business as usual sea level rise Energy production Energy supply per person Meet Max 2 o increase goal 90% reduction of all fossil fuel use UN business as usual impact

19 AS RESOURCE QUALITY DECLINE, COST AND EFFORT GO UP IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONSUMPTION

20 The long perspective from WORLD6 - GDP: Business-as-usual Global Energiwende Source Harald Sverdrup, WORLD6, 2018

21 WHAT ARE THE POLICY INTERVENTION POSSIBILITIES FOR METALS AND MATERIALS? Efficiency Manufacturing use efficiency Recycling, losses and reuse Recycling materials from use and waste Reuse and retrofitting existing items Limit irreversible losses Delay times in society Longer use for required installations Efficiency of recycling of redundant infrastructures and consumables Consumption Less consumption overall Better consumption utility efficiency Less wasteful consumption Behavioural patterns, social norms and prioritizations change Governance and management Price interventions, taxations, limits Promotions, education, public insights System optimization

22 INSIGHTS Scarcity All material resources will get into soft scarcity. Many are already there. Some key materials may get into hard physical scarcity. All fossil fuels have a quantifiable end date. Substitution has significant limitations, no substitute for phosphorus exists Resource shortages May cause economic crisis. Economic crisis may cause risk for social stresses and problems for governance. The economic system may get problems before the physical systems. Business-as-usual is the most dangerous policy Business-as-un-usual has large possibilities for change of trajectory

23 .AND THE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES, NEXT STEPS TOWARDS WELL BEING

24 We suggested some suggested future policies, We ran WORLD6 to test them.. Policies suggested Energy Resources Social Works? 1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible Global Energie-wende 2. Help poor nations grow faster by rapid industrialisation similar to Japan, Korea and China 3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs 4. Further slow population growth through positive incentives 5. UN high population scenario Can be done with better energy efficiency Challenging energy supply, challenging pollution risks Can be done in Energiewende Decline reduce consumption Energiewende becomes far more challenging Needs a lot of specialty materials High risk for hard scarcity on key technological materials Increases demand of key supplies Decline reduce consumption Risk that resource scarcity strikes Depends on being socially sustainable Limited by corruption and poor governance Social change stresses Needs global attitude change Economic crisis and disruptions Social stresses Yes Difficult Yes Yes Probably not

25 CONCLUSIONS A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges. Narrow sectorial appoaches are neither systemic, nor sufficient, it is not about adjusting the parameters of the present system, feedbacks co across sectors The circular society is systemic in nature and must be designed as such. When society is circular, that creates the circular economy Goal conflicts will demand to be solved at a systemic level Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive Energie-wende is linked to a Resource-wende, that can solve very many problems Both are about rearranging the basic structure of the systems and resetting parameters It involves all fundamental systems; industrial, economic and social dynamics It may imply transformative changes to existing society and existing power-structures Unresolvable goal conflicts will lead to difficult choices Transformative changes take time, Plan with at least 20 years from start to full implementations (Ref; LRTAP protocol, IPCC progress). Starting is needed at once ( = 2040). Must engage al arenas: Science, Communication, Political

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