A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA

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1 A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA Mi Hong, Professor Administration School, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R.C Phone: /Fax: (86) / Ma Pengyuan, Institute of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen, P.R.C Zhou Wei, Administration School, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R.C Abstract Carbon emissions and global climate changes are significant problems that affect the human society sustainable development. In China, industrialization and urbanization are two developing trends in future, which are directly related to our future energy consumption and carbon emissions. A predicting research on China's prospects of energy consumption in future is necessary and practical for the realization, from a perspective of life energy consumption in the process of urbanization. This paper takes a forecasting analysis on the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the urban of in China. Through measuring the scale of Chinese migration, amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions, analyzing the developing trend of the urban and rural s carbon emissions. According to the forecast analysis that three developing scenes of urbanization in China and energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption may continue to grow and carbon emissions will also continue to increase. It will be a long process for China that improve energy structure and ascend utilization efficiency, which will affect China's carbon emissions tendency. China's energy consumption will still increase largely in future, and the pressure of reducing emissions is also augmented correspondingly. 1 Preface Carbon emissions and global climate changes are significant problems that affect the sustainable development of human society. There is closely relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions, especially since the industrial revolution, with the extensive application of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, carbon emissions from energy field had being a major man-made emissions field. About three-fourths of global man-made carbon emissions come from fuel burning in the past 20 years, IPCC report says. In China, carbon emissions take a larger proportion, more than 90%, because coal This paper is supported by 1Chinese Ministry of Education human social science major project Construction of Capability on Coping with Threat of Non-Traditional Security (No.08JZD0021-D). 2National Population and Family Planning Commission National Twelfth Five-Year Plan Foundation Quantitative Analysis on Restriction of Population, Resource and Environment. 3Zhejiang Province Project of Taiwan Affairs Office Low Carbon Economy and Energy Technology Research Cooperation of Zhejiang-Taiwan (No ). 4 National key social science fund project Performance Evaluation, Policy Simulation and Capacity Building of Response to Major Public Emergencies (NO.08ASH006).

2 as a higher carbon emission is dominant in the Non-renewable resources. Therefore, the research on energy consumption is very important to reveal carbon emissions trend. Industrialization and urbanization are two developing trends in China in future, which are directly related to our future energy consumption and carbon emissions. Since 1978, the process of industrialization has been speeding up, for example, the products from industry field take a percent of 88.7% in GDP in 2008, which is more than 16.9% percent that in The process of industrialization is on the adjusting, optimization and upgrading stage of industrial structure and the urbanization on the speeding period. For example, the percent of urbanization achieved 45.7% in 2008, which is more than 28.8% percent that in In post-industrial stage, the energy consumption take on a decline, such as tons per ten thousand GDP in 1978, 5.57 tons in 1990, 1.30 ton in 2000,0.86 ton in With the development of the industrialization, the energy consumption per unit of GDP gradually declines, and the total amount of energy consumption will appear slowly down. The enhancement of energy consumption of per capita life, leading to the total amount increasing of life energy consumption, which is due to urbanization, will be an important factor which affects our country's energy consumption trend. 2 Overview With a higher life quality, the energy consumption will take on a fast increasing. And is not enough to predict the trend of future energy consumption in China according to its' changing in the process of industrialization with a heavy effect of urbanization on life energy consumption. The changing coursed by urbanization and industrialization may be complex. Therefore, when we pay attention to the industrialization, we also ought to attach great importance to the urbanization and energy consumption changes caused by it. A predicting research on China's prospects of energy consumption in future is necessary and practical for the realization, from a perspective of life energy consumption in the process of urbanization. This paper takes a forecasting analysis on the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the urban from 2011 to 2030 in China, which uses terminal energy consumption data of China's Energy Statistics Yearbook with the help of the trend prediction model of the improved flow. Through measuring the scale of migration in China, amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions and then analyzing the developing trend of the urban and rural 's carbon emissions, it is helpful for us to learn Chinese carbon emissions status and developing trend, and the government can also easily formulate the policy of slowing its carbon emissions which may be scientific, reasonable and complies with the situation of China. Population flow trend forecast model design Population emigrant scale prediction Correlation Pattern of Population emigrant and energy consumption Energy consumption and carbon emissions prediction

3 3 A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA 3 Population Flow Trend Forecast Model Design The gravity model is the first transfer of model. It is on the assumption that most of the migration distance's conditions are very short. The further resettled areas are away from emigrant areas, the less of migration becomes because of obstacles in the migration. And each migration flows will cause a reverse trend of migration flows. The gravity model formula is: P P i j M ij K (1) Dij Where K is coefficient, M ij is the migration from point i to point j, P i Pj are respectively the of point i and j point, D ij is the distance from i to j. Keyfitz model is used to analyse urbanization in China. The assumption of constant rates of natural increasing and net migration is not fit for actual status of. So this paper put forward variable rates of natural increasing and net migration to improve the coupling equations. The concepts of gravity center and economic gravity center in geographical information system are introduced to modify the gravity model in traditional migration, and to study the migration from rural to urban in China with the modified gravity model. A flow trend prediction model is put forward to estimate the size of the migrants and the urbanization rate in China with the modified Keyfitz model. The change rate of rural is directly proportional to rural base, while the change rate of urban is influenced by urban base and migration. Most of migration is caused by socioeconomic factor. So the incoming gap between urban and rural areas must be considered. Also, the more surplus rural labour, the more they migrate into urban areas. With the urbanization going on, in rural areas decreases and the proportion of the urban increases. When urban proportion reaches certain degree, the speed of urbanization will slow down. So migration size can be seen as directly proportional to rural and inversely proportional to urban. On the basis of the original form, the gravity model can be modified as: PW D r u M ru K (2) PW u r M Where ru stands for migration from rural to urban area, K is constant coefficient, W r W and u are income in the rural and urban areas respectively in China, P P r and u are rural and urban, D is spatial distance between gravity center and economic gravity center of China. Population flow trend prediction model is built on the modified migration gravity model. This inevitably makes the corresponding changes in the same direction indicators only, and this is clearly incompatible with the long-term trends. To make the model closer to the actual

4 migration and be used in a longer time frame, the paper modified the constant coefficient K into constant which is able to enlarge the applications of the model. The migration improved gravity model of urban and rural is: Pr ( Wu ( D( M ru( K( (3) P ( W ( u r Where M ru ( stands for migration from rural to urban area, K ( is variable coefficient, W r ( and W u ( are income in the rural and urban areas respectively in China, P r ( and P u ( are rural and urban, D ( is spatial distance between gravity center and economic gravity center of China. M F( ( P ( W ( If setting Pr ( Wu ( ru 1 K( F( D( u r (4),then (3) can be deformed for: And just take the derivative of (4),which is K( D( F( D 2 ( (5) F( K( D( 2 D ( (6) Population flow trend prediction model reveals the relationship between the attractors of migration K / D and the -economy gravity center distance D (. (Fig.1) Along with the increase of the distance of -economy gravity center, variable coefficient K ( diminishes gradually, so the attractors of migration K / D will turn negative. When D ( or D ( 0, the attractors of migration K / D will tend to zero. It appears that the attractors of migration trend will be minute amounts as the "-economy gravity center" distance is infinite big or infinite small. On the other hand, if only the distance of -economy gravity [ D i, D j ] center value is in a moderate range, migration trends have a strong attraction. Fig.1 The theory diagram of flow trend prediction model

5 5 A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA The model is suitable to the research of the high frequency simulation of floating dynamic development and -carrying capacity, and also offers support to the urban and rural migrating of regulatory mechanisms, policy research and models of urbanization development. 4 Population Emigrant Scale Prediction The paper is based on the migration status in China during 1996 to 2008 to set three scenes, and then uses the method of flow trend forecast model, in order to measure the migration in China during , and then speculate the trends of urban size. According to the possible development patterns of Chinese migration, the paper sets three scenes. Scene A: assumed that the maximum of "-economy gravity center" distance maintains km to measure migration in China during Scene B: assumed that "-economy gravity center" distance is down to the level of 2008, and remains unchanged on the level of km, then measures migration in China during Scene C: assumed that the "-economy gravity center" distance keeps original development trend, then measures migration in China during Measuring results of these three scenes are shown in Table1. Table 1 China's migration situation during Urban Rural Migration Disposable income Disposable income Population-economy Coefficient K Years of urban residents ofrural residents gravity center distance (ten thousand (ten thousand) (ten thousand) (ten thousand) (yuan) (yuan) (km) /km) Data source: China statistical yearbooks of Table2 Migration in China's future estimates (unit: ten thousand) Scene A Scene B Scene C Years Migration Urban Rural Migration Urban Rural Migration Urban Rural

6 Data source: According to this paper estimates. 5 Energy Consumption and carbon emissions Prediction According to Table 1 and Table 3, this paper proves the relationship between energy consumption and urban by regression analysis in China during Then, depending on the predicted data of migration size in Table 2, this paper further estimates the total energy consumption. Finally, setting the proportion of coal, oil and natural gas remains the same as in 2008, this paper calculates the carbon emissions in the future. Table 3 Energy consumption in China during SUMGDP Total energy The proportion of total energy consumption (%) Consumption energy per Years (hundred million) consumption Coal Petroleum Natural gas Hydropower and nuclear power capita (kgce)

7 7 A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA Data source: China statistical yearbooks of Using statistical analysis software SPSS16.0, this paper proves the relationship between energy consumption (Y ) and urban (X ) by regression analysis in China during The correlation pattern of emigrant and energy consumption is: Y X X (7) According to Table 2 and type (7), this paper estimates the total energy consumption. Furthermore, setting the proportion of coal, oil and natural gas remains the same as in 2008 (Table 4), this paper further calculates the carbon emissions in the future. The calculation results are shown in Table 5. Table 4 Carbon emissions coefficient of energy Energy type Coal Petroleum Natural gas Hydropower and nuclear power tc/tce Data source: Energy Research Institute, China Sustainable Energy and Carbon Emission Scenario Analysis [R] Table5 Energy consumption and carbon emissions in China during Scene A Scene B Scene C Years Energy consumption Carbon emissions Energy consumption Carbon emissions Energy consumption Carbon emissions (M (M (M

8 Data source: According to this paper estimates. 6 Results Energy 2015 Consumption Urban Population (million) Rural Population (million) Migration Population (ten thousand) D-value (million) Carbon Emissions (M Fig.2 Migration and Energy consumption in China during (Scene A) Urban Population (million) Rural Population (million) Migration Population (ten thousand) D-value (milloin) Carbon Emissions (M Energy Consumption Fig.3 Migration and Energy consumption in China during (Scene B)

9 9 A RESEARCH ON PREDICTING AMOUNT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN CHINA Energy Consumption Urban Population (million) Rural Population (million) Migration Population (ten thousand) D-value (million) Carbon Emissions (M Fig.4 Migration and Energy consumption in China during (Scene C) Assuming the "-economy gravity center" distance of China maintains the maximum numerical km, we can estimate the migration in a period from 2011 to It is predicted that the number of migration in China will be about 6.67million, and the urbanization rate will reach 61.8% in 2030 (Fig.2). Assuming the "-economy gravity center" distance is down to the level in 2008, and keeps on a level of km, the number of migration of China will be about 6.31million in 2030 (Fig.3). Assumed that the "-economy gravity center" distance keeps original developing trend, the number of migration in China will be about 5.14 million, and the urbanization rate will reach 59.4% in 2030 (Fig.4). In the background of remaining lower natural growth and effectively controlling growth, the structure of urban-rural has more significant influence on carbon emissions, and the rate of urbanization increasing directly leads to carbon emissions increasing. The paper predicts that the gross of energy consumption in China will be changing in the range of 4.24 to 4.53 billion tons standard coal and carbon emissions caused by energy consumption will reach 2.94 billion tons in Conclusions China is on a period of transformation, which transitions in society and economy are the core part. Economic transition mainly contains the optimization of industrial structure and technology progress in the industrialization process. Social transition mainly refers to urbanization. Judging by the economic transition, the growth of energy consumption in the second industry becomes slower and even probably declines, caused by technical progress and industrial structural changes when China come into the stage of post-industrialization. From the view of social transition, China is on the key stage of accelerating urbanization process, improving urbanization quality, adjusting rural energy structure, making poverty throw off poverty. Estimating energy consumption and the requirement of carbon emissions space, we should be comprehensive enough to consider the characteristics of transition in China, especially the influence from urbanization. According to the forecast analysis that three developing scenes of urbanization in China in the future and energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption may continue to grow and carbon emissions will also continue to increase, even the proportion and the use ratio of nuclear, wind, solar,

10 hydro etc low carbon energy increasing gradually with the enlargement of migration from rural to urban and the increasing energy consumption. It will be a long process for China to improve energy structure and ascend utilization efficiency, which will affect China's carbon emissions tendency. In future, when we change the style of economic growing model, develop green low carbon, and strengthen the construction of ecological environment, we should also guide residents to consume reasonably, promote green clean energy actively, and decrease the consumption of life energy and carbon emissions. In short, China's energy consumption will still increase largely in future, and the pressure of reducing emissions is also augmented correspondingly. Therefore, we should pay much more attention to the energy consumption and the increasing of carbon emissions that are caused by urbanization and people's living standards improving. References [1] Jones, D. W. (1991). How urbanization affects energy use in developing countries. Energy Policy 19, [2] Hiroyuki IMAI. the Effect of Uthanization on Energy Consumption.the Journal of Population Problems.1997,53(2): [3] Sathaye J.and Meyers S.Energy Use in Cities of the Developing countries. Annual Review Energy.1985(10): [4] Keyfitz N. Do cities grow by natural increase or by migration? Geographical Analysis, 1980;12(2): [5] Jacques Ledent.Model of Urbanization with Nonlinear Migration Flows,International regional science review,1986 Dec;10(3): [6] Oleg Dzioubinski and Ralph Chipman.Trends in Consumption and Production:Household Energy Consumption. DESA Discussion Paper 1999(6). [7] Jyoti Parikh and Vibhooti Shukla.Urbanization energy use and greenhouse effeets in economic development:results from across national study of developing countries.global Environmental Change.1995,5(2): [8] F. Urban, R.M.J. Benders, H.C. Moll. Modelling energy systems for developing countries, Energy Policy 35 (2007) [9] David F.Gates and Jason Z.Yin.Urbanization and Energy in China:Issues and Implications.In:Aimin Chen,Gordon Liu and Kevin Zhang (editor). Urbanization and Soeial Welfare in China. Burlington VT:Ashgate Publishing. 2004: [10] F. Gerard Adams, Yochanan Shachmurove. Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020,Energy Economics 30 (2008) [11] The National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook [12] Zhanglei, Huangyuanxi. Energy Consumption for China s Modern Urbanization [J]. China Population Resources and Environment, 2010,20(1): [13] Qi Yunchun, Dong Yunshe. Emission of greenhouse from energy field and mitigation countemeasures in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2004,,2(5):

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