MARINE RENEWABLE ENERGIES. Antoine RABAIN

Transcription

1 MARINE RENEWABLE ENERGIES Innovative and alternative sources of funding Dublin, 11 th June 2014 Antoine RABAIN Energy Department Director 18, rue Horace Vernet F ISSY les Mlx Cedex 33 (0) (0) contact@indicta.com

2 CONTENTS & scope of the intervention Why do we need Marine Renewable Energy (MRE)? Key points in MRE & perspectives Focus on 2 major economic issues Some strategic & innovative levers to respond to these economic issues Public finance Crowdfunding New mechanisms & breakthrough in economic models ANNEX A little more about 2

3 and MRE A convergence of energy and maritime economies STRATEGY CONSULTING AND OPERATIONAL SUPPORT OPPORTUNITIES DEVELOPEMENTS Over 6 years of analysis on issues of MRE development in France, Europe and worldwide & more globally on {energy ; climate} issues STUDIES STRATEGIES OPERATIONAL SUPPORT OUR CUSTOMERS : Industrials and major contractors Small/medium companies & start-ups Institutional players (clusters, public departments, regions, ) ECONOMICS & MARKETS TECHNOLOGIES POLITICS & REGULATION 3

4 From energy and climate issues... to the potential response of MRE ENERGY CLIMATE ISSUE : RE AS KEY SOLUTION GHG Emissions (Gt CO 2 ) Source: CALLING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ENERGY SECTORS RENEWABLE ENERGIES MATURE SECTORS HYDRAULIC ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV ENERGY EFFICIENCY NUCLEAR CCS FOSSIL FUEL SWITCH (coal to gas) EMERGING SECTORS Strategic lever in Europe MARINE ENERGIES GEOTHERMAL NEW SOLAR (CSP, )

5 Some of key issues we ve covered since 2007 in MRE s markets INDUSTRIALI- SATION Location of production facilities and industrialoptimisation master plans Geography of potentiels Key market drivers - Prospectives Subcontracting& partnerships PROJECTS ACCEPTABILITY Environmentalimpacts, evaluation of local socioeconomic benefits& coactivites Stakeholders & co-activites Job creation potential Promotion & valorisation of skills RISKS MANAGEMENT Visibilityon Levelised Costof Energy(LCoE) by masteringthe marine environment throughout the project lifecycle Engineering & design Construction & installation Operations & maintenance FINANCIAL ENGINEERING Innovative business models and support mechanismsfor the emergenceof commercial markets Public support (Feed-In-Tariffs, testing sites, ) Private financing (Banks, ) Crowdfunding & radical innovations 5

6 CONTENTS & scope of the intervention Why do we need Marine Renewable Energy (MRE)? Key points in MRE & perspectives Focus on 2 major economic issues Some strategic & innovative levers to respond to these economic issues Public finance Crowdfunding New mechanisms & breakthrough in economic models ANNEX A little more about 6

7 A multitude of MRE segments witha large scope of energy applications FIELD OF APPLICATION Maturity ELECTRICITY FRESH WATER HEATING / COOLING + KINETIC ENERGY LARGE TIDAL RANGE SMALL TIDAL RANGE FIXED WIND LARGE MARINE TIDAL STREAM SMALL MARINE, FLUVIAL & ESTUARIAN TIDAL STREAM FLOATING WIND Technological proximity Technological proximity Source: 7 PREDOMINANT MRE SEGMENTS 5 strategic segments 3 ALTERNATIVE MRE SEGMENTS - THERMAL ENERGY CHEMICAL ENERGY WAVE POWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION OSMOTIC PRESSURE Technological proximity SEAWATER HEATING SWAC: Sea Water Air Conditioning Heat pump LegendInnovative Large and scale alternative energy sources of Small funding scale energy production production 7

8 s voluntaristscenario for the 5 strategic MRE segments A major contribution potential to address the {energy ; climate} equation Worldwide technical potential : TWh Equivalent to our world actual electricity consumption! 15 20% of global electricity mix by 2050 Source: Ambitious yet accessible perspectives 8

9 First economic issue: securing the huge financial needs Several dozen of G to achieve CAPEX before 2020 in Europe only Around 15 private banks finance 80% of project s CAPEX Tickets between 100 & 200 M 2020 perspectives: 1G / bank / year From 5 to 10 tickets / year Worldwide prospective Investissements (CAPEX in G ) annuels (md ) Annual investments Source: Eolien posé Fixed offshore wind EMR émergentes Other emerging MRE including floating wind Capacités Installed installées MRE capacity (in GW) toutes EMR (GW) perspectives: 2G / bank / year From 10 to 20 tickets / year

10 An other key issue: reinforcing economic competitiveness & social acceptabilty From 170 to 350 /MWh today, towards a target cost range between 100 to 120 /MWh around 2030(except OTEC) CRITICAL NEEDS IN: Planification Visibility on local industrial load Economies of scale and export potential New marine operations Service models Industrial logistics & ports Public support R&D & technological innovation Smart grids, energy storage, Source: Financial engineering & innovations Project risks management New economicmodels (public finance, crowdfunding,...) & breakthrough innovations with other markets (electric mobility, ) 10

11 CONTENTS & scope of the intervention Why do we need Marine Renewable Energy (MRE)? Key points in MRE & perspectives Focus on 2 major economic issues Some strategic & innovative levers to respond to these economic issues Public finance Crowdfunding New mechanisms & breakthrough in economic models ANNEX A little more about 11

12 Public finance & Internal Rate of Return (IRR) An immediate and effective lever to drop LCOE LCOE ( /MWh) Impact of several levers on LCOE -2pts -4pts -6pts Mean IRR 12% IRR 10% -7% IRR 8% -14% IRR 6% -30% CAPEX -60% OPEX +25% Producible -21% LCOE drop Source: Based on tidal stream segment IRR decrease The use of public banks for CAPEX funding could help decrease rapidly and significantly usual IRR rate 12

13 Crowdfunding& new models A wide range of innovations throughout the value chain to improve social acceptability & economic attractiveness of MRE Two major types of mechanisms upstream Infrastructure s investment (CAPEX) downstream Cost of Energy (LCOE) GREEN ENERGY PROVIDERS CROWDFUNDING BREAKTROUGH IN ECONOMIC MODELS Ex : Sustainable mobility 13

14 Crowdfunding, a multi-benefit tool CROWDFUNDING Starting point Several thousands of people Investing hundreds to thousands of each Able to collect up to tens of M A new source of project funding (vs. funds availability issues) A social acceptability improver (vs. NIMBY syndrome) An interesting source of income for people (vs. traditional investments) Intermediate a) Local Cooperatives DIRECT CROWDFUNDING b) Investment platforms INDIRECT CROWDFUNDING Sources of payback and income Direct financial income «free» kwh Tax rebate 14

15 Key example on direct crowdfunding Middelgrunden project (mid 90 s) - Denmark DIRECT CROWD- FUNDING Local single project Offshore wind farm 40MW (20 x 2MW) Total CAPEX : 48M! Total ROI 3,5%/y (on 20 years) Ownership : 50% Dong Energy 50% Local cooperative Local investment : 24M by local peoples Close to traditional investment, like life insurance Share price 570 Average investment per head PROS Great improvement onsocial acceptability due to local structure CONS Limited financing capacity due to a restrained number of funders Favorable to MRE due to specific & large acceptability issues Unfavorable to certain MRE due to higher CAPEX (>2G with share price > 100M ) 15

16 Key example on indirect crowdfunding Lumo platform - France INDIRECT CROWDFUNDING Renewable energy projects (onshore wind, solar PV, hydropower, MRE, ) Investment from 25 to per head Up to 20% of total project CAPEX National multi projects Total ROI 3 to 5%/y (on 12 to 18 years) Close to traditional investment, like life insurance PROS High financing capacity due to a national scope of funders CONS Limited improvement on social acceptability due to a national platform Favorable to MRE with higher CAPEX Less lever on MRE acceptability issues 16

17 Crowdfunding, a big potential tool for financing MRE s CAPEX New savings Total savings French savings in bn 4 000bn 10 times the annual RE CAPEX in France (2012) Annual crowdfunding in 2012 World 2bn Europe 735M France 27M Almost half of Germany s RE capacity currently owned by citizens and farmers ( 33,5GW) Source : Observatoire des marché de l épargne et du crédit Source : Massolution Objective : find the good balance between local/national scope mechanisms to satisfy levels of CAPEX of projects Main crowdfunding countries : a European lead 17

18 Innovations on downstream mechanisms Two more major types of downstream mechanisms upstream Infrastructure s investment (CAPEX) downstream Cost of Energy (LCOE) GREEN ENERGY PROVIDERS CROWDFUNDING BREAKTROUGH IN ECONOMIC MODELS Ex : Sustainable mobility 18

19 Green energy providers, from virtual to effective mechanisms GREEN ENERGY PROVIDER A consumers involvement and then a better awareness of costs of energy Starting point People : concerned about energy and climate issues willing to pay more to consume 100% guaranteed renewable energy Intermediate a) NATIONAL cooperatives b) LOCAL cooperatives adequacy supply / demand electric grid Subscribers electricity consumption Not owned grid NATIONAL cooperatives ANNUAL adjustment VIRTUAL mechanism Evolution Locally owned grid LOCAL cooperatives REAL TIME adjustment EFFECTIVE mechanism Renewable energy production Plugged into national grid Directly plugged into RE production sources Storage 19

20 Innovations on downstream mechanisms Two more major types of downstream mechanisms upstream Infrastructure s investment (CAPEX) downstream Cost of Energy (LCOE) GREEN ENERGY PROVIDERS CROWDFUNDING BREAKTROUGH IN ECONOMIC MODELS Ex : Sustainable mobility 20

21 Sustainable mobility, a breakthrough model SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 10 /100km Conventional car min. -30% -50% vs. oil fuel x2 2,5 /100km Electric car Innovative offers, still competitive with conventional car, where «green drivers» can pay more to fuel their electric cars in order to develop and invest in : RE energy capacity Electric cars industry Coupling local developments! OPEX ONLY Coupling the development for RE energy and electric cars could support the financing challenge of MRE and maximize the lever on social acceptability 21

22 CONCLUSION Green ecosystem: towards a virtuous circle? Green ecosystem Green consumers RE production paying more their electric fuel Electric cars built locally Creation of a green ecosystem involving green consumers funding RE by: investing in RE production capacity with crowdfunding (direct and/or indirect mechanisms) green energy providers electric cars and more generally innovative offers with local socioeconomic benefits & economic attractiveness 22

23 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Antoine RABAIN Energy Department Director 18, rue Horace Vernet Issy-Les-Moulineaux Cedex tél: +33 (0) A chaque fois que nous nous sommes tournés vers l océan, notre région a connu de longues périodes de prospérité. Every time we turned towards the ocean, our region has experienced long periods of prosperity. Alexis GOUVERNNEC ( ) Brittany - FRANCE 23

24 CONTENTS & scope of the intervention Why do we need Marine Renewable Energy (MRE)? Key points in MRE & perspectives Focus on 2 major economic issues Some strategic & innovative levers to respond to these economic issues Public finance Crowdfunding New mechanisms & breakthrough in economic models ANNEX A little more about 24

25 AN INDEPENDANT STRATEGIC CONSULTANCY AT THE CONVERGENCE OF 3 ISSUES: { ECONOMICS ; TECHNOLOGIES ; POLITICS } POSITIONING Consulting firm specialised in economic studies, strategic consulting & business development OPPORTUNITES DEVELOPMENTS Specialised in transforming commercial markets and emerging markets, spécialisée dans les filières structurées en transformation et les marchés émergents with high technological and innovation dimensions In complex and international environments STUDIES STRATEGIES BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT ROLE Support strategic growth & opportunity detection, implement development strategies & projetcs Understand& anticipate the issue in the business environment MARKETS TECHNOLOGIES POLITICS & REGULATIONS Define & document strategies to establish roadmaps Support the implementation of operational projects and business development actions 25

26 A RECOGNISED EXPERIENCE ON 3 CLOSELY RELATED SECTORS: ENERGY ; RESOURCES ; CLEANTECHS SECTOR FIELDS OF EXPERTISE ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGIES MARINE ENERGIES CONVENTIONAL ENERGIES ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURES RESOURCES MARITIME ECONOMY & INNOVATIONS FOSSIL RESOURCES (INC. DEEPSHORE INNOVATIONS) MINING RESOURCES (WATER, ONSHORE & SEABED MINING) CLEANTECHS CLIMATE ECONOMICS CARBON ISSUES & CCS NEW BUSINESS MODELS INNOVATIVE PROPULSION 26

27 OUR CONSULTING SERVICES 3 OFFER LEVELS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION OF YOUR NEEDS 27

28 THE WORLD MARITIME ECONOMY GROWTH AND THE MRE AT THE HEART OF OUR EXPERTISE Emerging MRE markets with high growth potential MRE markets at the crossroads of marine issues: Interactions with marine transport and logistics activities, offshore services, scientific research, oceanography, Synergies and mutualisations are possible with aquaculture, algae culture, desalinisation, 28

29 ENABLING STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING AND SUPPORTING BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOR LARGE CORPORATIONS, SME s, START-UPS & INSTITUTIONAL ACTORS IN MRE MARKETS More than 250 MRE technologies analyzed at their various stages of maturity, covering all MRE segments Evaluation of MRE s contribution potential to the future world energy mix Market forecasts to : key market drivers and growth dynamics LevelisedCost of Energy (LCoE) modellingfor each technology segment ( /MWh) Market penetration and growth strategies (Business Plans, roadmaps, acquisitions, ) Socio-economic impacts of projects : job creation potential in France and Europe, Structuring of integrated industrial sectors with strong export potential 29

30 CONTACT US, SO WE CAN GO FURTHER TOGETHER Antoine RABAIN Director of the Energy, Resources & Cleantech practice +33(0)