Evaluation of Crude Oil Production Forecast Studies Using Statistical Analysis

Transcription

1 Evaluation of Crude Oil Production Forecast Studies Using Statistical Analysis * Shinichirou MorimotoMasanari Koike Mogi Gento Various evaluations have performed on oil peak forecasting, by confirming oil reserves data, forecast methods, opinions on reserve growth including non-conventional oil, and new oil field discoveries. However, a holistic overview of the oil peak forecast using statistical analysis, including the regression analysis method, would perhaps provide a new perspective from which to evaluate and confirm trends in the oil peak forecast. Therefore, this paper aims to clarify the principle factor contributing to oil peak forecasts by evaluating oil peak forecast studies from this new perspective. Oil peak year forecasts which predict that innovations in substitute fuels and the oil market force will be the primary contributing factors appear to have risen linearly, while those which indicate that the decline of world conventional oil production is the principle factor appear to be converging on the year The result of this paper evidently confirms that differing opinions regarding the basic cause of the oil peak have an impact on the oil peak forecasts as they appear in the trends for oil peak forecast studies / WTI / 1) OPEC 2) 3) 4) 5) sh-morimoto@aist.go.jp tt57382@mail.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp, super7@mars.dti.ne.jp IHS energy 1.8 NGL ) USGS U.S. Geological Survey P50mean 50% 3.3 NGL 7) )9)

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4 x y (1) (2) Campbell 19) P O E BP 20) OGJ Oil and Gas Journal R 2 IHS energy y = ax + b (1) 2 EIA Energy Information Administration y = ax + bx + c (2) 9) P50mean 7) a, b, k, c R 2 N 1 G E N (2) (5) 1 M.King.Hubbert 21) 2.1(3) x y (1) 1 9 NGL 1 2.1(3) (4) a 6 G E 1 a 2 x y S x1 S x2 NGL S y1 S y2 R 1 R 2 n 1 n 2 NGL (3) t t 95% 0 NGL a1 a2 t = 2.2 (3) Sy 1( 1 R1 ) + Sy 2( 1 R2 ) n1 + n2 4 Sx1 Sx 2 (3) 22)23) (1) 2.1(4) 2.1(2) 32

5 V S y n (4) 2010 O O S y V = (4) n P 2 O 2 2.2(1) 2 R C U R S P 3 C 2 O P P 4 U 5 R 33

6 6 S 3 C-U C-R C-S U-R U-S R-S t t G E N G E G CERA Cambridge Energy Research Associates Campbell 18) G 20.4 E 0.12 IHS energy Campbell BP OGJ 3.1 Campbell Journal of Japan Society of Energy and Resources, Vol. 29, No. 4 CERA 7 G 8 E 9 N 4 G E N V

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