全球硅铁行业发展形势及展望 GLOBAL FERROSILICON SITUATION & OUTLOOK. 王慧英女士 Ms. Wang Huiying. Rongsheng Group

Transcription

1 全球硅铁行业发展形势及展望 GLOBAL FERROSILICON SITUATION & OUTLOOK 王慧英女士 Ms. Wang Huiying Rongsheng Group

2 宁夏荣盛特种合金集团有限公司北京销售分公司 Ningxia Rongsheng Specialalloy Group Co.,ltd (Beijing Sales Company) Ningxia Rongsheng Specialalloy Group Co.,ltd is as one of the key enterprises of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in China as the leading company in the field of ferro-alloy. The Group manages eight branch-companies, of which six are to produce ferro-alloy in addition to one mining company and one import and export company. There are two sets of 32000KVA ore furnaces, 10 sets of 12500KVA ore furnace and four sets of 6300KVA with the total installed capacity reaching 220 thousand KVA. The main products include those ferro-alloy of top quality with low aluminum, calcium, carbon and titanium, in particular, the annual production of No. 75 Rongsheng Ferro-Alloy is 180 thousand tons, and it has been sold to as far as Japan, US, South Korea and Europe and other Countries. Learn More about Our Company, please visit

3 Physicochemical Indexes of Ferrosilicon 低铝 低钛 低钙 低碳优质硅铁 Chemical Constituent: % Si Al Ca Ti C Scope Chemical Constituent: % S P Mn Cr Cu Ni Not More than

4 CONTENT Part I. Global Ferrosilicon Industry Situation Part II. Problems in Global Ferrosilicon Trading Part III. Outlook on Ferrosilicon & Suggestions

5 Part I. Global FeSi Industry Situation 1 Distribution of Global Ferrosilicon Industry 2 Supply and Demand of Ferrosilicon in Global 3 Market Price in Main Areas

6 1.1 FeSi Production in Global Global ferrosilicon production mainly distributes in China, Russia, USA and Brazil. In 2014, the global total production was about 7.68 million tons, 67% (5.16 million tons) of which were produced in China. Russia ranked the second with production at million tons

7 1.2 FeSi Supply in Global China, Russia, Norway and Brazil were main exporters of ferrosilicon in the world. Taking the place of China, Russia has become the largest ferrosilicon exporter since However, as part of the shipped materials in China were smuggled and excluded from the official statistic, China in fact is still the largest exporter in the world now and even in the future 3~5 years.

8 1.3 Ferrosilicon Capacity in China Up to 2014, China s ferrosilicon capacity reached 11 million tons. The expansion of FeSi capability in recent years was mainly driven up by the blooming demand from steel industry. Besides, under the Chinese policy of energy-saving and emission-reduction, the furnaces of small scale were eliminated, and those of over 30,000KVA are coming into the industry, leading to a continuous expansion of the total capability.

9 1.4 FeSi Production In China Chinese Ferrosilicon production mostly centered in northwest of China such as Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Hunan etc. In 2014, China totally produced 5.16 million tons of ferrosilicon, slightly down by 3% Y-O-Y.

10 1.5 Operating Rate and Production Cost in China Capability Utilization Rate Due to the gloomy market, the average operating rate in China kept as low as 50~60%. Some of the plants have stopped production for a long time. However, quite few plants are at full capability. Seen from the districts, Qinghai has a higher operation rate of 80% and Ningxia only at about 50%. Cost and Loss Now, the ferrosilicon price is near or lower than the cost line in China, and most of the producers are in loss. As we know, the cost of FeSi 72# is at RMB5,200-5,300/mt while that of FeSi75# is at RMB5,300-5,400/mt according to their furnaces. In accordance with the current price, we can see the producers are suffering an average loss of RMB400/mt for FeSi 72# and about RMB300 for FeSi 75# This is why some of the producers stopped their production. More and more producers will be forced to cut or stop production in case of continuous loss.

11 2.1 FeSi Demand in Global Steel Industry According to the statistic of WorldSteel, the global crude steel production was totally billion tons, which consumed about 6.55 million tons of FeSi.

12 2.2 FeSi Demand in China Steel---according to statistic of National Bureau of Statistics, China totally produced million tons of crude steel in 2014, which consumed about 3.3 million tons of FeSi. Casting--In 2014, the total production of casting was about 46.3million tons, including 20 million tons of grey cast iron and 11 million tons of nodular cast iron. Ferrosilicon consumption in Casting in 2014 was about 0.5 million tons. Export In 2014, about 0.7 million tons of materials shipped to other counties via legal and illegal channels. Magnesium--In 2014, Chinese total output of magnesium was about 873,850 tons, consuming about 900,000 tons of ferrosilicon.

13 3. FeSi Market Price in Global--China In 2014, FeSi price in China kept down-trend due to gloomy steel market. As large steel mills are controlling the tendering price, they cut the price in order to decrease the production cost and improved their profit. In 2015, FeSi 75# price in Chinese domestic has lowered to the bottom RMB /mt (USD /mt) while FOB price dropped to around USD1300/mt. As the price is close to the cost line, it is expected to bottom up from now on.

14 3. FeSi Market Price EU &USA FeSi prices in the west fluctuated frequently in recent years due to unstable supply. In 2015, prices in EU and USA were respectively at EUR1200/mt and Cents 92/lb si.

15 3. FeSi Market Price Japan & S.Korea Japanese and S.Korean imported ferrosilicon were mainly sourced from China, and the CIF prices should be in accordance with China. However, as lots of Chinese ferrosilicon transported there via Vietnam, the market prices fell into disorder with prices gap over USD100/mt.

16 Part II. Problems in Global FeSi Trading 1 Anti-Dumping 2 Smuggling

17 1.Anti-Dumping USA USA imported FeSi materials was mainly Sourced from Russia, China, Iceland, Canada and Venezuela with shares as follows chart. In August, 2014, ITC (United States International Trade Commission) made the decision to remove the 21.85%-60.78% anty-dumping duty against FeSi from Russia, but remained 22.84% duty rate on FeSi from Venezuela.

18 1.Anti-Dumping USA After Aug. 2014, the import volume of FeSi from Russia became larger due to remove of anti-dumping duty and was expected to expand in the future continuously. The import volumes from Venezuela shrank due to the continuous anti-dumping measure. However, China, the second exporter of FeSi to USA, has enlarged its shipment largely to almost as much as in Russia since 2013.

19 2.Anty-Dumping EU EU had taken anti-dumping measures during 1992~2002 for the first time. EU decided to impose anti-dumping duty from Mar 2008 for the second time. Now, The general anti-dumping duty rate is 31.2% on Chinese ferrosilicon companies, excluding 15.6% on Erdos Xijin Kuangye Co., ltd and 29% on Lanzhou Good Land Ferroalloy Factory Co., Ltd. Effected by anti-dumping measures, China was almost prevented from EU market, and export volumes decreased to 30,000~50,000 tons from 506,000 tons in 2007.

20 3. Smuggling - China 25% export tariff imposed on Chinese ferrosilicon since 2008, lead to a huge pricing gap between legal export and smuggled products. High profits attracted lawless people to rush into danger and the rampant smuggling has been far beyond our expectation. Partly estimated, the smuggled volumes in 2013 and 2014 were over 300, 000 tons in annual, almost equal to Legal export volume. Smuggles seriously disturb the trading order and harm the interests of suppliers. We urge companies to refuse smuggles in order to get stable supply and good quality materials.

21 Part III. Outlook and Suggestions Economy Cost Demand 4 Trading 5 Suggestion

22 1. Economy in China At the recently closed NPC & CPPCC Sessions, the GDP growth anticipation was lowered by about 7%, however the various issues mentioned will for sure stimulate steel and ferroalloy industries. For instance, the investment is expected to reach RMB 800 billion in railway construction, the application of new energy vehicles will gain further promotion and another 7.4 million sets of affordable housing will be achieved in These factors will become strong driving forces to demand for iron and steel.

23 2.Cost Electricity Reform in China: China s Electric power reform to enable certain improvement in profits of ferrosilicon producers: The electric power reform promoted by the Chinese government emphasizes on restoring the commodity property of electric power, leaving the power system to the hands of the market. This will raise large power consumers ability of bargaining over power price to certain extent, which will lower the production cost, thus improving the overall profitability in the whole industry chains. Electricity consumption is of the most in production of ferrosilicon, whose standard type consumes over 8,000 Kw hours per ton and high-purity type consumes around 9,300 Kw hours per ton, with electricity consumption accounting for about 60% of the cost. Should the new electric power reform be implemented, ferroalloy enterprises whose are in production of ferrosilicon, silicon metal and others would benefit much.

24 3. Demand At present, as the global crude steel development slowed its steps, ferroalloy demand will keep stable in the future. Ferrosilicon demand in foundry industry will be enlarged. Higher and higher quality is required for Building Steels, which will drive the demand of high-purity ferrosilicon to some extent.

25 4. Trading Trading Pattern Changes China: China will still be the largest ferrosilicon producer and consumer and play the most important role in the global market in the recent 3~5 years. Russia: The traditional ferrosilicon producers such as Russia are expanding the ferrosilicon capability in recent years and sell the products to Asian countries and America. Others: New ferrosilicon suppliers elsewhere such as Malaysia, Indonesia and etc are entering into the market and gaining the market shares.

26 5. Suggestions Technology: Enterprises should focus on renovating the technology and management and then promote the competitiveness by reducing production cost. Product Quality: Suppliers should improve the quality of service, and ensure the product specification, sizes and delivery according to customer requirements. Long-term Cooperation: Enterprises should pay more attention to the Long-term stable cooperation with end-users to avoid all kinds risks for both parties. In the form of trade, combination of internal and external trading is also a better way for companies to expand business.

27 5. Suggestions Focus on Exchange to Avoid Risks USD dollar strengthened against Euro, GBP, AUD, JPY etc from 2H of Traders should be on guard against the enlarging Exchange risks.

28 5. Suggestions Chinese One-Belt and One-Road strategy, the key opening strategy besides trading strategy as well as industrial strategy, will greatly promote international and regional cooperation. Many areas and countries are involved in this frame. Enterprises should pay more attention to the superiorities for the economic, industries, resource, tax ect in these areas and countries and then seek and utilize new business opportunities.

29 Thanks!

30 CONTACT US Ningxia Rongsheng Specialalloy Group Co.,ltd (BEIJING) LUCY WANG TEL: FAX: MOBLE: Gansu Rich Minmetals Co.,Ltd LUCY WANG TEL: FAX: MOBLE: