Soocheol LEE Professor, Faculty of Economics, Meijo University

Transcription

1 Soocheol LEE Professor, Faculty of Economics, Meijo University

2 Fukushima Accident and Generation Costs of Power Sources CONTENTS Energy Transition Policy of Japan after Fukushima Accident Cost and Benefit of Renewable Energy Transit Renewable Energy Transition of local Autonom -Case of Iida and Maniwa City - Conclusion and Policy Implication Appendix

3 Fukushima Accident and Generation Costs of Power Sources

4 Current Reactors Operation, standstill and application for operation (2018 August)

5 Generation Cost of Power Sources Estimated by Japanese Government before the Fukushima Accident(2009) Ground pushing for nuclear policy by the Japanese government Generation cost (yen/kwh) PV Large wind Large hydro LNG Nuclear Geothermal Source; METI(2001,2004,2009)

6 Generation Cost of Nuclear Power Estimated by Japanese Government after the Fukushima Accident(2011,2016) 10.2yen/kWh Risk management cost +0.5 yen +1.1 yen +1.4 yen Policy cost Accident prevention cost 5.9 yen 5.9 yen Estimated in 2009 Estimated in 2011,2016 source;meti

7 Generation Cost of Power Sources in 2030 Nuclear Power construction cost(330,000yen/kw) before Fukushima accident Nuclear Power construction cost of Hincli Point (1.3 million yen/kw) after Fukushima accident Nuclear Coal Gas PV(house) Wind Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2015)

8 Energy Transition Policy of Japan After Fukushima Accident

9 Power Mix Plan before Fukushima Accident TWh renewable energies (0.9%) Hydro(8.2%) Nuclear (30.9%) (7.7%) (25.8%) (1.0%) (7.7%) (41.5%) (5.8%) (10.2%) (9.2%) Renewable + Large hydro 20% LNG (23.7%) (27.6%) (22.1%) (48.7%) Nuclear 50% 200 Coal (25.6%) Petroleum (10.9%) 2005(actual) (25.4%) (13.2%) 2007(actual) (18.2%) (4.6%) Source: Long-term Energy Outlook in Japan by METI(2009) (14.2%) (14.0%) (estimated) Fossil 30% (3.8%)

10 Japan`s Energy Policy Target after Fukushima Accident 3E+S Source:METI(2012)

11 Japan`s New Energy Plan in 2050 (July 2018) Push Renewables as Main Energy Source. Renewables+Battery. Strengthen R&D for Hydrogen Energy. Renewables+Hydrogen Energy. Reducing the share of Nuclear Power. Fading out inefficient Coal Power. Achieving Decarbonized Society in 2050 Complying with Paris Agreement Establishing New Organization in charge of New Energy Plan

12 GHG Emission Trend and Long-term Reduction Target of Japan (0.1 billion CO2 ton) 26% reduction comparing to 2013 This target does not require just sweat. This will create new technologies, new jobs and new industries to strengthen the international competitiveness 80% reduction by 2050

13 New Energy Mix Plan of Japanese Government in 2030 Source: METI(2018)

14 Feed-in Tariff Price of Japan Power sources (Years of FIT 20 years) FIT prices (yen/kwh) 비고 PV (under 10kW ) ~33 10 years PV (10kW~ ) years Wind (under 20kW) years Wind (20kW~ ) Wind offshore 36yen(2014~ ) Small Hydro (under 200kW) Small Hydro (200-1,000kW) (1,000-30,000kW) Geo-thermal(under 15,000kW) (15,000kW~ ) Biogas Biomass (thinning wood etc. ) Biomass (other woods ) (construction wastes) years 20 years 20 years Waste generation source: METI(2017) 14

15 Fed-in Tariff Price of Solar PV (10kW+) Auction for 2MW+, 20 yen/kwh for 10kW~2MW 26~28 yen/ kwh for below 10kWh Auction for 2MW+, 19 yen/kwh for 10kW~2MW 24~26 yen/ kwh for below 10kWh

16 Renewable Power Transition of Japan from 2011 to 2017 Power Mix of 2011 Power Mix of 2017 Renewable 2.7% Excluding Large Hydro Renewable 7.9% Excluding Large Hydro Solar 5.7%, Biomass1.5%, Wind0.7%

17 Power Sources Mix of Germany Feed-in Tariff(1991) Feed-in Premium(2017) etc. Renewable Petroleum LNG Coal Nuclear Brown coal sources:arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen e.v "Bruttostromerzeugung in Deutschland ab 1990 nach Energieträgern" ( )

18 Cost and Benefit of Renewable Energy Transition

19 Feed-in Tariff Surcharge in Electricity Bill (household, 300kWh/month) surcharge (yen/kwh) amount (yen/month) Total amount (trillion yen/year) source; METI(2017)

20 Merit Order Effect by Renewables Comparison of average wholesale electricity price in FY2011 and FY2016 by time periods12 Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017) Day time wholesale electricity price down by Merit Order Effect by renewables

21 Weighted average unit cost of electricity of the ten major utilities Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017)

22 Estimated numbers of jobs in 2016 by renewable energy sources Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017)

23 Cost- Benefit Effect of Solar PV in Japan Solar PV generation Total Capacity Generation Share of T electricity Total generation CO2 reduction Economic Effect Total amount (comparing 2015) (Carbon price) Crude Oil import Reduction Save Crude oil import Generation to final energy consumption Total FIT cost of nation Source ;Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association(2017)

24 Renewable Energy Transition of Local Autonomy -Cases of Iida and Maniwa City-

25 New local business by solar PV ~Ohisama Simpo Co. of Iida City~ Iida City and its vicinity 337 place 4.4 MW 太陽光発電システムの設置 ( 電力の利用 ) ~ まで備考 Sales amount about 2.8million$ Employees 0 11 人 ファンド調達実績 2005~2015 (by 9Funds) about14.8million$ 337place 4,4MW by solar Regional economic effect 基礎数値 : 7 ファンド 11 億 8,300 万円 (2005~2013) 分 about 29million$ 20

26 Renewables Support System by Renewable Energy Ordinance of Iida City Mayor Advice Renewables Support Committee Bank, Investor Advice Approval Offering credit No interest Tax preference Advice Loan Investment Autonomy Organization of the City Cooperative companies Support Local citizen`s activity Generation company with citizen investment Local electric company Company of land ownership Source; Iida City 26

27 Biomass Power Plant in Maniwa

28 Conclusion and Policy Implication to Korea

29 Social Value of Renewable Energy Environmental preservation value Small size RE Large size RE National energy security value World peace value Regional value

30 The role of policies accelerating renewable energy deployment Source; 自然エネルギー財団

31 Japan`s Energy Policy Target for 3E+S Energy Equity, Energy Autonomy Energy Symbiotic

32 1. Present Positive Renewable Energy Vision to the peoples 3030/5050 At least 30% by % by 2050

33 2. Renewable Energy Policy Design by Business Types Mega Capital Small and Medium Capital Local Citizen Initiative Capital

34 Solar PV Projects by Business Types Type Business entities Installation place capacity Size of business Large capital Power Companies Large companies Local capital Local companies 대규모공유지 ( 페기물매립지등 ) 자사소유지 ( 대형공장내토지등 ) 자사소유지 ( 중소규모토지 ) 중소규모공유지 ~100MW ~10MW ~5MW 1~2MW 수백억엔수십억엔 ~10억엔 ~5억엔 Local Autonomy cities 개인소유지 ( 나대지등 ) 공유시설지붕 100~900kW 수천만엔 Local Citizen Initiative NGO/etc. 개인시시설지붕 Under 100kW 수백만엔 주 ; 붉은점선부분은사업평가에상당한비용이요구되는프로젝트파이낸싱등의수법이성립되기어려운 10 억엔미만의사업에해당됨 Source :MOE(2014) 지역에있어서신재생에너지사업평가 ( 태양광사업 )

35 3. Utilizing Local Renewable Resources Sufficiently Save balancing and networking cost of the electricity This is possible by the support of Feed-in Tariff

36 4. Electric Power Grid Reinforcement for Renewables Coal, LNG power RE Coal, LNG power Nuclear power RE

37 5.Financing for Promoting Energy Autonomous Role of Local Energy Environment Taxes Gasoline tax and tax revenue of Japan Tax revenue(2016) tax rate Gasoline tax(national tax) 2,386billion yen 48.6 円 /l Local Gasoline Tax(local tax) 255 billion yen 5.2 円 /l total 2,641 billion yen 53.8 円 /l Source : 財務省 (2016) Transportation Energy Environment Tax Tax revenue(2014) tax rate 13,738 billion won 529 ウォン /l Driving tax 3,556 billion won ウォン /l Education Tax 260 billion won 79.4 ウォン /l 計 19,355 billion won ウォン /l Source : 韓国国税庁 (2015) gasoline tax and tax revenue of Korea

38 지속가능한저탄소사회는지구환경은물론생명의안전과경제및사회의지속가능을위해서피할수없는선택이며이는, 현행에너지시스템의대규모적인전환즉, with mid-long term base Fading out nuclear power Fading out fossil fuel power Promoting renewables as their substitution 을통해서실현이가능

39 Thank you for your kind attention