Harnessing the True Power of the Sun A Revolutionary Spectrum-Splitting CPV design Berkeley; December 5 th, 2014

Transcription

1 Harnessing the True Power of the Sun A Revolutionary Spectrum-Splitting CPV design Berkeley; December 5 th, 2014

2 1 mile 2 of Berkeley sunlight

3 1 mile 2 of Berkeley sunlight < 1% of U.S. energy from solar ¼ of U.S. energy consumption

4 What if Cell Efficiency Module Efficiency ~ 65% ~ 50% ~ 40% ~ 35% << 1% ~ 20% ~ 18% ~ 99%

5 What if Cell Efficiency Module Efficiency ~ 65% ~ 50% Atwater Research Group ~ 40% ~ 35% funded research project << 1% ~ 20% Prof. Harry Atwater Howard Hughes Prof. Applied Physics & Material Science ~ 18% John Lloyd PhD student Material Science Sunita Darbe PhD student Material Science Cristofer Flowers ~ 99% PhD student Chemical Engineering

6 Achieving 50% Module Efficiency Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting PV *Goal Module Efficiency 18% Module Efficiency 35% Module Efficiency* > 50%

7 Achieving 50% Module Efficiency Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting PV *Goal Module Efficiency 18% Module Efficiency 35% Module Efficiency* > 50%

8 How Does It Work? Primary Concentrator Specialized Mirrors Secondary Concentrator Tailored PV Cells

9 A Superior Technology in Most Dimensions Single-Junction PV Concentrated Concentrated PV PV Spectrum Splitting PV 1 Efficiency High-Temperature Performance Choice of Light Absorber Grid Integration/ Broad Shoulders Annual average Power / Land area [normalized] Module Assembly Hour of Day

10 Explosive Solar Industry Growth Installed Capacity [GW] PV Cost Declines % % 50 Scale 11% But higher efficiency CPV accounts for less than 1% of the market

11 A Brighter Future Expected for CPV CPV is projected to grow by 750% by 2020 Greater technological acceptance Lower trackers cost Favorable competitive environment

12 A Brighter Future Expected for CPV Greater technological acceptance Lower trackers cost Favorable competitive environment Greater Field Data Over One 15 Better Informed Certification Process Projects Larger than 2MW after by 2012

13 A Brighter Future Expected for CPV Greater technological acceptance Lower trackers cost Favorable competitive environment Scale Innovation 2-axis trackers market to triple by %-30% of system cost Topper Sun projects to reduce trackers cost 30% by 2015

14 A Brighter Future Expected for CPV Greater technological acceptance Lower trackers cost Favorable competitive environment 5 Hawaii Non-solar generation requirement Upward pressures on PV module prices Grid integration LoaD [MW] Unstable Stable grid Silicon prices will rise by 15% in 2015 Supply and demand balance Hour of Day Grid integration challenges with PV

15 Value Propositions: first pilot LCOE 1 CAPEX 2 Land Usage Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum-splitting PV

16 Value Propositions: 2020 LCOE 1 CAPEX 2 Land Usage Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum-splitting PV

17 Value Propositions: 2020 But How? LCOE* CAPEX* Land Usage Decrease in tracker and 2.8 optical 0 devices costs at 1.55 scale will be the key drivers Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum-splitting PV

18 Initial Market Entry Caribbean $ ) 2) Land High 1) High WTP Constrained DNI ($/kwh) Portugal $0.25 Spain $0.23 Italy $0.28 Philippines $0.36 Pacific Islands $ Chile $0.23 Singapore $0.21 Australia $0.31

19 An Early Market: the Caribbean Islands Millions without electricity Average $0.39/kWh High DNI (5.5 on average) Competing uses for land

20 Market Growth and Strong Capacity Additions Selected islands generation capacity forecast 0GW Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Grenada Haiti Jamaica St-Lucia Trinidad & Tob 1GW 4GW Current Forecast in 10 Years

21 likely to come from renewables We realized that our dependency on fossil fuels was leading to political and economic instability. We had to act. --Aruba s Energy Minister Renewables will provide new jobs and companies will be able to expand more easily. --St Lucia's Energy and Science Minister Renewables have come slowly to the Caribbean but the technology is now cheap enough and diverse enough to make it much easier to install. --Rocky Mountain Institute

22 The Caribbean Markets... $80k Bermuda $60k Long term competitiveness threshold 1,000MW $40k GDP/cap Guadeloupe Barbados Cayman Island Martinique Bahamas Antigua & Barbuda $20k Aruba Grenada Curacao Trin&Tob BVI St-Lucia Dominican Rep. US VI $0k Jamaica Haiti 0c/kWh 5c/kWh 10c/kWh 15c/kWh 20c/kWh 25c/kWh 30c/kWh 35c/kWh 40c/kWh 45c/kWh 50c/kWh 55c/kWh Typical electricity rates High Electricity Rates Cost Competitive

23 ... Pain Points Are Aligned with our Value Prop Land Scarcity A critical problem is the acute scarcity of arable land -- Office for Sustainable Development and Environment Growing Energy Demand to keep up with demand from residential and tourism sectors, we will have to increase generation capacity solar is an option -- Barbados Light & Power, regulated utility in Barbados Costly Electricit y islands are heavily reliant on diesel and heavy fuel oil and are vulnerable to fluctuations in the supply and cost of fossil fuels -- UN Climate Summit High efficiency concentrating solar can be part of the answer High density Renewable & abundant Cost competitive

24 Reaching Scale Through Partnerships Options Licensing Partnership/ Joint Venture Best alignment of competencies & resources Manufacturing R&D Pilot Scale

25 The Next-Generation of High-Efficiency PV Superior, cost-competitive technology Favorable early market Scale through partnerships

26 Thank You Caltech Atwater Research Group Prof. Harry Atwater John Lloyd Sunita Darbe Cristofer Flowers Howard Hughes Prof. Applied Physics & Material Science PhD student Material Science PhD student Material Science PhD student Chemical Engineering UC Berkeley C2M Team Christian Pfab Moulay Driss B. Mrani Dan Bu David Garfield Kurt Sheline Serge Ouedraogo Haas MBA Haas MBA PhD student Eng & Ops. PhD student Chemistry Haas MBA Haas MBA

27 Questions?

28 Backup

29 Partnership Opportunities Research & Development Manufacturing Plant Development Operations & Maintenance Components System Integration Developer O&M EPC CPV Fully integrated PV &