Integrated Assessment of Transport Concepts. Rainer Friedrich

Transcription

1 Integrated Assessment of Transport Concepts Rainer Friedrich

2 Problems with urban transport Air pollution Noise Climate change Time losses Accidents Costs Utility losses: Walking, waiting, cycling esp. in bad weather No seats Fixed schedule Lack of security Picture by Mario Roberto Duran Ortiz Mariordo

3 Humans have difficulties in solving problems with multiple criteria: Use of readily available information, simplification by reducing the number of criteria, adopt opinions of peer group, (source e.g. Kahneman, thinking fast and slow) Thus, a quantitative Integrated Assessment of policies or technologies to support policy decisions is necessary.

4 Questions to be answered by an assessment: 1) Is a policy intervention or use of a technology beneficial for society, i.e. are the benefits higher than the costs? 2) if several options/alternatives are available: which of the alternatives is the best option from a society perspective (comparative assessment) An Integrated Assessment is providing all relevant information to decision makers to help answer the questions above.

5 Integrated Assessment of policy interventions Benefits and costs have to be quantified and transformed into a common unit! bboverall criterion: maximize benefits minus costs Benefits: avoided health risks, avoided biodiversity losses, avoided material damage, reduced risks caused by climate change, time gains, comfort gains Costs: costs for society, utility losses, time losses, increased risks caused by climate change,...

6 How to assess risks caused by air pollution and noise? Impact pathway approach Emissions Transport and chemical transformation; exposure Risks,Damage Use of exposure response-functions Monetary valuation With willingness-topay-approach

7 The most important concentrations-response relationships (from the WHO HRAPIE report) Highest health risks due to chronic mortality caused by PM2.5 First study: Dockery, Pope et al.: an Association between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six U.S. Cities, Dec Pollutant Relative Risk (95% C.I.) All cause natural mortality >30 years Uncertainty level PM2.5 (per 10 µg/m3) NO 2 (per 10 µg/m3) above 20 µg/m ( ) A 1,055 (1,03-1,080) up to 33% overlap B 7

8 How to assess impacts of greenhouse gas emissions? Not the Impact Pathway Approach, as the range of marginal damage cost estimates (FUND) is too wide! 2010/t CO2 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Dark blue and yellow: 0%/a pure time preference rate, others: 1%/a First two bars in each year: without equity weighting Others: equity weighting with EU values 1, A1b year / scenario B1 Av1%_0%PRTP_noEW Av1%_1%PRTP_noEW Av1%_0%PRTP_WeuEW Av1%_1%PRTP_WeuEW 8

9 How to assess impacts of greenhouse gas emissions? -> Standard-Price Approach Aim: 2 aim: increase of earth s surface temperature by less than 2 compared to preindustrial times (corresponds to less than 450 ppm CO 2 -eq.) Marginal avoidance costs: source: meta analysis of Kuik, O., Brander, L. und Tol, R.S. (2009), Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis, in: Energy Policy, 37, 4, S : /t CO 2 eq ( /t CO 2 eq) 2010 /t CO 2 eq Lower value 5%/a Average value 5%/a Upper value 5%/a Levelized costs per t of CO to 2050: 128 (73-225) /t CO 2

10 How to assess utility losses? Costs per trip costs car use costs public transport min. utility gains

11 How to assess utility losses? Δc c c c c p costs car use costs public transport utility losses If after increase of costs N persons change to public transport: Average utility loss per person = (C c C p + 0,5 *ΔC c )

12 Assessment of short to medium term measures in transport: source TRANSPHORM project Transport measures Urban areas: Enhanced use of bicycles (15-30% - 50% gap closure) Enhanced use of public transport (30-35%) Car pooling Promotion of e-cars 2,5% Traffic management Low emission zones EURO 5 Ban of HDT through traffic City toll (-15%) Parking management Hybrid buses (10% share) Freight consolidation center Non-urban roads: 110 km/h on motorways 80 km/h on rural roads All roads: Road pricing 1,5 cent/km Increased fuel tax +20% Improved tyres and brakes 10% share of bio-fuels Promotion of CNG cars (10%) Off-road: Tighter limits for inland ships (NO x ) Tighter limits for sea-going vessels (0,25%S, NO x ) Shore-based electricity for ships Kerosene tax Shift from air to rail < 500 km

13 Modal Split in Greater Stuttgart Area 20% less car trips = 75% more public transport or 150% more cycling Source: VVS: Das Mobilitätsverhalten im Verkehrs- und Tarifverbund Stuttgart.

14 Top 9 effective measures: avoided health impacts by air pollution 2022; in DALYs per year EU2020 ca 2,5 mio DALYs caused by air pollution Fuel Tax Traffic Management Public Transport Speed Limit Rural Bicycles Maritime Ships Shore Based Electricity Low EmissionTyres, Brakes Zones PM10_reg PM25_reg SOMO35_reg NO2_reg PM10_ui PM25_ui NO2_ui Sum

15 Top 9 most effective measures: reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 2022 EU : 4450 million t CO 2-eq

16 Top 9 of most effective measures: air pollution and climate protection 2022 (52 /t CO 2-eq ; /Daly) Shift from air to rail Low emission zones Kerosene tax Shore-based electricity for ships Improved tyres and brakes Enhanced use of bicycles Tighter limits for sea-going vessels 80 km/h on rural roads Traffic management EURO Saved carbon costs Avoided health impacts

17 Top 9 of most efficient measures 2022 (utility losses not considered) Enhanced use of bicycles Shift from air to rail Enhanced use of public transport Traffic management Low emission zones Kerosene tax Shore-based electricity for ships Improved tyres and brakes City toll EURO

18 Top 9 of most efficient measures 2022 (including utility losses) Enhanced use of bicycles Traffic management Shift from air to rail Low emission zones Shore-based electricity for ships Improved tyres and brakes Promotion of e-cars Tighter limits for sea-going vessels 10% share of bio-fuels EURO

19 Measures analysed change/improve the existing transport system to a limited extent. The aspiring aims of city administrations to have a green city having negligible environmental health impacts and being nearly CO2 free demand for revolutionary changes. Development of visions for 2040 about a green city where people nevertheless have a high quality of life

20 Why not build a city for users of bicyles and pedelecs? Limited comfort, especially during bad weather Relatively slow, limited range Not for untrained non-active, handicapped and elderly people High accident risks Maximum share ca. 35%?

21 A vision for a green city for 2050 Specific problems with individual transport Specific problems with public transport Air pollution (NOx, PM2.5) Greenhouse gas emissions Noise Traffic jams (time losses) No parking spaces High costs Accident risks limited comfort: no flexibility, fixed itinerary walking and waiting times during rush hours crowded, no seats limited comfort unknown fellow passengers, lack of safe feeling

22 Solution: Electric drive Low carbon electricity generation Exchangeable battery or fuel cell reduction of noise, NO 2, CO 2, Long life tyres and brakes reduction of PM, costs(?) Obligatory car sharing, no private car much less parking space needed, cost reduction Fully autonomous driving with networked small vehicles use for everybody, much less accidents, little waiting times, no walking, privacy, comfort

23 How to deal with pedestrians and cyclists? Mixed zones (with all modes) and thoroughfares/transit routes (only one mode allowed). Is the use of a car (for each party separately) feasible? Will be analysed. If not: combination with railway/tram/trolley bus during rush hour or use of mini buses instead of 2 seater cars or a mixture of these options.

24 Conclusion Political decisions, in transport and elsewhere, should be supported by an integrated assessment, taking all relevant aspects into account. This includes taking account of utility gains and losses. Transport concepts should include all transport modes, efficient short term measures (in Europe!) include promoting cycling, better traffic management and low emission zones; but the effect is limited. However effective NO2 reduction due to EURO 6d norm/scr catalyst for diesel cars. New technological developments (e.g. autonomous driving with interconnected vehicles) will allow new transport concepts, that contribute to getting cities really green while increasing wellbeing and happyness of the population.