Aerospace Trade Barometer

Transcription

1 Aerospace Trade Barometer 2015 The Castrol Global Trade Barometer provides a detailed and pragmatic view of what is mined, made and moved internationally to support decision-making based on what is really happening on the ground 1 Aerospace Trade Barometer

2 Established nations on autopilot The Aerospace Trade Barometer is part of the Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB), a composite measure of world trade, its growth and decline. By taking into account trade trends, relevant macroeconomic and market influences, and the effect of the business environment on trade, we are able to give a pragmatic view providing market intelligence to support decisionmaking based on what is really happening on the ground. To find out more, please download the full document at Trend one: Turbulent skies ahead The list of top ten aerospace trading nations (figure 1) remains unchanged since the last forecast while the five-year growth outlook is optimistic. For example, the US s growth forecast has increased from an annualised rate of 1.28% in the last CGTB to 3.68%. The UK appears to be performing poorly in comparison to other global leaders in the sector such as those in mainland Europe and North America. Yet, this could change as aerospace companies return work to the UK from Europe, the US, China and Latin America based on reduced logistics costs and a perception of better quality. France, which last time occupied the ninth and tenth spot in the table of aerospace export products by country for aircraft parts (figure 5) has been replaced by Germany s exports of turbo-jets and aircraft parts, reflecting Germany s high-end manufacturing capability. The outlook is also positive for the US in terms of its position in the table of top ten aerospace export products by country (figure 5). The country s annualised growth rate was expected to contract by -7.97% annually over the next five years. However, this forecast indicates that US exports of turbo jets are actually expected to increase by 4.97% over the same period, highlighting the buoyant trend for exports from the country. 2 Aerospace Trade Barometer

3 Figure 1 The aerospace power list: Top ten aerospace trading nations by 2014 value 1 US $165.37bn 2 France $97.61bn 3 Germany $72.54bn 4 UK $34.80bn 5 China $19.80bn 6 Canada $18.47bn 7 Japan $12.84bn 8 Singapore $11.41bn 9 UAE $9.62bn 10 Italy $8.59bn 3 Aerospace Trade Barometer

4 Figure 2 Exporting success: Top ten aerospace exporters by 2014 value Figure 3 Aerospace consumption: Top ten aerospace importers by 2014 value 1 US $116.75bn 2 France $64.44bn 3 Germany $41.12bn 4 UK $26.57bn 5 Canada $15.97bn 6 Japan $9.73bn 7 Italy $6.28bn 8 China $4.39bn 9 Brazil $3.24bn 10 Seychelles $3.14bn 1 US $48.62bn 2 France $33.17bn 3 Germany $31.42bn 4 China $15.41bn 5 UAE $8.36bn 6 Singapore $8.35bn 7 UK $8.23bn 8 Russia $5.80bn 9 Hong Kong $5.42bn 10 India $5.02bn 4 Aerospace Trade Barometer

5 Trend two: US and Europe coasting at the top Figure 4 Aerospace fast lane: Top ten fastest growing aerospace trading nations by CAGR* In many ways, very little has changed amongst the top ten aerospace trading nations (figure 1) and developed nations remain at the forefront. The US and Europe in particular continue to dominate the Aerospace Trade Barometer as they produce aircraft domestically and have well-established global supply chains and trade partnerships in place. Europe alone accounts for 70% of all aviation exports globally. However, there has been some movement at the top. Argentina was the sixth fastest growing country in the last Aerospace Trade Barometer but has now dropped out of the table of top ten fastest growing aerospace trading nations (figure 4). This may be because its economic growth is expected to contract by 1.3% this year. The unstable domestic environment caused by disagreements between domestic farmers and the Argentine Government may also have had an impact. Meanwhile, China continues to rise up the table of top ten aerospace exporters by 2014 value (figure 2) having moved from ninth to eighth position. Switzerland, which made up the last spot in the list of top ten aerospace exporters in 2012 has been replaced by the Seychelles. This is likely to because of its proximity to India and China as well as its growing science and technology experience and capabilities. 1 Vietnam 12.78% 2 Hungary 11.61% 3 Iraq 10.93% 4 Germany 9.20% 5 Philippines 9.17% 6 Romania 9.04% 7 Poland 8.77% 8 Indonesia 7.84% 9 Russia 7.81% 10 Malaysia 7.80% * CAGR = annualised growth over five years Aerospace Trade Barometer

6 Trend three: Emerging aerospace nations gaining altitude Hungary is now the second fastest growing aerospace trading nation (figure 4) having been fourth in the previous forecast. It sits behind Vietnam in first place and ahead of Iraq in third. It is growing significantly with growth forecast to increase from 8.47% annually over the next five years to 11.61%. Hungary has made a clear commitment to the aerospace industry since political changes in the 1990s, founding the Hungarian Aviation Industry Foundation (HAIF) in However, it is also likely benefitting from the growth of its neighbour, Germany. Elsewhere in the table, Malaysia has replaced Egypt as the tenth fastest growing aerospace trader (figure 4), suggesting further relocation of manufacturing of aviation components from China to other, cheaper locations. Figure 5 Producing the goods: Top ten aerospace export products by country by 2014 value 1 US Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers/other gas turbine engines $50.16bn 2 France Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $43.07bn 3 US Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $39.24bn 4 US Parts of aircraft, spacecraft $26.78bn 5 Germany Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $21.48bn 6 UK Parts of aircraft, spacecraft $13.37bn 7 France Turbo-jets, turbopropellers/other gas turbine engines $12.93bn 8 UK Turbo-jets, turbopropellers/other gas turbine engines $12.09bn 9 Germany Turbo-jets, turbopropellers/other gas turbine engines $10.03bn 10 Germany Parts of aircraft, spacecraft $9.32bn 6 Aerospace Trade Barometer

7 Figure 6 Bringing in growth: Top ten aerospace import products by country by 2014 value 1 US Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers/ other gas turbine engines $26.61bn 2 France Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $18.50bn 10 China Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers/ other gas turbine engines $5.23bn 9 US Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $5.30bn 3 Germany Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $17.51bn 8 Singapore Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers/ other gas turbine engines $5.57bn 4 US Parts of aircraft, spacecraft $16.41bn 7 China Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites $7.77bn 5 France Parts of aircraft, spacecraft $12.31bn 6 Germany Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers/ other gas turbine engines $9.14bn 7 Aerospace Trade Barometer

8 Castrol eye view: Germany flying high Germany s increasing investment in the aerospace sector will help it to improve its global positioning over the next five years, cementing it as a top trading nation by both value and speed of growth. Several large aerospace companies are already based in the country including Airbus Deutschland, MTU Aero Engines, Rolls- Royce Deutschland and Liebherr-Aerospace Lindenberg. This gives the country a huge amount of influence on the wider industry. As a large German employer, Rolls Royce in particular plays a leading role in engine partnerships with other German companies, as well as utilising an extensive supply chain across the nation. Through their strong ties with Cottbus, Dresden, Darmstadt and Karlsruhe universities, the company is also investing heavily in its skills base and technology training for German students. Overall picture: Aerospace trade growth Since the last Aerospace Trade Barometer, forecast growth is predicted to double from 2% to 4.3% over the next five years. Whilst the aerospace sector experienced significant and relatively stable growth after the financial crisis, with an increase in global value terms from $286 billion in 2001 to $577 billion in 2012, the barometer suggests net declines from 2013 forecast until The reason for this drop may be the weak global trade environment and its subsequent effects on airfreight. The growth lag identified in the last CGTB will continue for the next three years with a pick up in It certainly won t be blue skies for many nations as annualised growth in France and the UK is forecast to decline France by 8.31% between and the UK by 4.85% over the same period. As the largest aerospace trader, global patterns of trade roughly follow those of the US. Although US trade in aerospace is expected to decline over the next couple of years, the barometer predicts significant accelerations in growth for countries that are beginning to manufacture high-end products, such as Vietnam, Hungary and Iraq. 8 Aerospace Trade Barometer

9 About the Castrol Global Trade Barometer The Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB) and its sub-barometers are constructed from the sectoral trade flows between the world s 50 largest trading nations. The CGTB is an aggregate barometer of all trade across all sectors. Each sub-barometer measures the trade flows between countries for a particular sectoral grouping. The Aerospace Trade Barometer measures how trade and trade growth in goods has changed up to the end of the last quarter. It is also a forecast of how that barometer is expected to change over the next five years on a rolling basis, with the next four quarters forecast on a quarterly basis, and the subsequent four years forecast on an annual basis. In contrast to trade forecasts based on the drivers of GDP, the CGTB is built upon the key drivers of global trade itself, including trade trends, relevant macroeconomic and market influences (such as GDP, oil prices, inflation and foreign direct investment), and the effect of the business environment on trade (such as regulation, demographics and access to capital and finance). This gives us deep, accurate and actionable insight into the nuances of global trade in the near term. By taking into account the drivers of global trade we are able to give a pragmatic view providing market intelligence to support decision-making based on what is really happening on the ground. The Aerospace Trade Barometer covers all goods sectors and sub-sectors related to aerospace including turbo-jets, aircraft, spacecraft and satellites, aircraft parts, instrument panel clocks, and gliders. The forecasts within the CGTB are based on investment grade data covering 200 countries and 10,000 sectors worldwide. The data is interpolated from UN Comtrade, IMF, ITC and country statistical office data. Forecasts for annual and annualised growth are based on twenty parameters that cover short, medium and long-term drivers of trade. Data for these parameters is taken from international sources including Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, UNCTAD, WTO, IMF, ILO and the World Bank. The barometer is independent of political and behavioural factors, except as priced in by markets. 9 Aerospace Trade Barometer

10 Overall More information The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is designed to increase the understanding of global trade and its impacts on your industry. If you have any questions about the ideas presented in the report and would like to meet with a Castrol representative, please contact daniel.davies2@uk.bp.com ( ). This report is one of a series, which tracks the performance of global trade and provide a regular five-year forecast of future trade patterns. Further details can be found at Media enquiries The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is designed to increase the understanding of global trade and its impacts on your industry. If you have any questions about the ideas presented in the report and would like to meet with a Castrol representative, please contact: daniel.davies2@uk.bp.com ( ). Questions on data Castrol regrets it is unable to deal with enquiries about the data in the Castrol Global Trade Barometer. Quoting from the barometer Publishers are welcome to quote from this barometer provided that they attribute the source to the Castrol Global Trade Barometer. However, where extensive reproduction of tables and/or charts is planned, permission must first be obtained. Acknowledgements Report content Man Bites Dog Design Pixeldot Legal Notice Whilst this report has been prepared in good faith, no warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The information given in this report is of a general nature. It is not intended to amount to, and should not be relied on as being, commercial, economic or professional advice for any specific purpose, issue or transaction. No liability is accepted for any such reliance. This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including trade and shipping patterns, product supply, demand and pricing, political stability, general economic conditions, legal and regulatory developments, availability of new technologies, natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage, and many other factors. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and we undertake no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Castrol, the Castrol logo and related marks are trademarks of Castrol Limited. Produced by Castrol Limited. Registered in England & Wales, no Registered office: Wakefield House, Pipers Way, Swindon, Wiltshire, SN3 1RE, United Kingdom Castrol Limited. All rights reserved. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is based on methodology and data provided by our specialist trade economist partner. This report should therefore be considered independent from, and not necessarily consistent with, the BP Energy Outlook. 10 Aerospace Trade Barometer