Christoph Jugel, Director Energy Systems German Energy Agency / Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena) DENA STUDY INTEGRATED ENERGY TRANSITION

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1 Christoph Jugel, Director Energy Systems German Energy Agency / Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena) DENA STUDY INTEGRATED ENERGY TRANSITION Brussels, October 16 th 218

2 THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE PROTECTION Development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany : Mio. t : 1.43 Mio. t (= -16%) 217: 95 Mio. t (= -27%) 217: 95 Mio. t Mio. t CO 2 ä % (25) EL8 / TM8-95 % (25) EL95 / TM95 Historisch 2

3 THE DENA STUDY INTEGRATED ENERGY TRANSITION FACTS & FIGURES 24 advisory board members more than 6 partners more than 2 experts directly involved 5 scenarios 1 dena study 2 phases 27 sessions 15 remote conferences 18 months 3

4 THE INTEGRATED ENERGY TRANSITION A HOLISTIC APPROACH Energy transition as integrated approach on all levels - regional - national - European - global energy sector building sector Integrated optimisation over all sectors Balancing with trends & facets (e.g. digitalisation, acceptance ) transport sector industry sector Optimisation of markets and infrastructures dena 4

5 DENA STUDY INTEGRATED ENERGY FIVE SCENARIOS MODELLED Reference (RF) Climate Targets Electrification (EL) 8 % 95 % Technology Mix (TM) 8 % 95 % Ambitious projection of past and current trends in politics an technology Quick and extensive electrification of most energy uses in buildings, industry and mobility Broad variation of energy carriers, infrastructures and applications in all sectors no binding climate goals (but CO 2 price in all sectors) EUR/tCO CO2-Preis RF Historie Climate paths with two ambition levels (8 and 95 percent) Mio. t CO 2 -eq 5

6 RESULTS & RECOMMENDATIONS Our key findings

7 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK NEED TO DEFINE THE 25 TARGET Greenhouse gas emissions by sector M t CO % 215 RF EL8 TM8 RF EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 Historie History % 64 Andere Other Verkehr Transport Industrie Industry Gebäude Buildings Energie Energy 95% The transformation paths to achieve the climate protection targets differ significantly between 8 or 95 percent. We have to decide today, whether we allow remaining emissions for 25 of 25 m t CO 2 (8 % target) or 64 m t CO 2 (95 % target). Climate protection goals require immediate activation of all actors. Intermediate goals are important to meet the overall budget for carbon emissions.

8 ENERGY DEMAND STRONG ELECTRIFICATION IN ALL SECTORS End energy demand of electricity by sectors TWh/a RF EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 Historie History 25 Verkehr Mobility Industrie Industry Gebäude Buildings All consumption sectors have an increasing demand for electricity (around 36 TWh higher in EL scenarios than in the TM scenarios). Increasing final energy efficiency and the complementary use of power fuels prevent even higher power requirements. 8

9 SECURITY OF SUPPLY BROADEN THE INSTRUMENT BASE Demand for secured power generation capacities GW about 6 GW difference The need for secured power will grow in all scenarios by 25, as electricity demand increases. Compared with TM scenarios, EL scenarios have significantly higher demand for secured power (around + 6 GW!) RF EL8 TM8 RF EL8 TM8 Historie History The secured power is provided by storage, demand side management and gas power plants. Verkehr Mobility Gebäude Buildings Industrie Industry Andere Other Saldo Balance 9

10 THE 3 PILLARS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION EFFICIENCY & REN. POWER & POWERFUELS An ambitious energy efficiency strategy and a reduction of final energy consumption are absolutely necessary to achieve the energy transition targets and the economic policy goals for reduced dependence on imports and energy prices Energy efficiency is a prerequisite for climate protection and economic growth Energy and resource efficiency as well as a strengthening of the circular economy can counteract the trends to increase energy consumption through economic growth and increased consumption. Energy efficiency needs to be assessed more systemically 1

11 THE 3 PILLARS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION EFFICIENCY & REN. POWER & POWERFUELS Installed capacity of renewable power generation GW In each target scenario, more than 3 GW of RES capacity will be installed in 25. EL scenarios nearly 4 GW. The largest contribution is by onshore wind energy (at least 17 GW in all scenarios) and photovoltaics (at least 114 GW). 215 RF EL8 TM8 RF EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 Historie History hydropower biomass photovoltaics onshore wind offshore wind 11

12 THE 3 PILLARS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION EFFICIENCY & REN. POWER & POWERFUELS Growing demand for renewable synthetic energy carriers TWh/a A successful energy transition requires not only energy efficiency and renewable power but also power fuels as a third pillar. In all target scenarios, there will be a significant need for climate-neutral synthetic fuels (power fuels) from 23 onwards RF EL8 TM8 RF EL8 TM8 RF EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 RF EL8 TM Deutschland Germany EU-Ausland Countries Nicht-EU-Ausland Non Countries EL95 TM95 Power Fuels are also produced in Germany, but mostly imported from European and non-european countries. 12

13 INFRASTRUCTURES CONTINUE EUROPEAN GRID INTEGRATION Cross-border Net Transfer Capacities (NTC) GW ,9 +22,8 GW 28,1 Heute Today - 22 Leitstudie EU-Nachbarländer Countries The German energy system continues to be integrated into the European internal energy market and closely linked international energy markets. All scenarios show an intensive exchange of power with neighbour states. The TM scenarios show net electricity exports (2-3 TWh/a) in 25, while the EL scenarios show considerable net electricity imports (136 TWh/a by EL95). 13

14 INFRASTRUCTURES: TECHNOLOGY MIX SHOWS LOWER COSTS OF POWER GRID EXPANSION Accumulated investment costs in electricity grids in Mrd. Euro bn Further development and expansion of power grids is no regret measure. Investment needs in power grids significantly lower in technology mix scenarios 1 5 RF EL8 TM8 Höchstspannung Extra-high voltage offshore Offshore Höchstspannung Extra-high voltage onshore Onshore Hochspannung High voltage Mittelspannung Medium voltage Niederspannung Low voltage Summe (Investment needs for energy infrastructures for gas and liquid fuels remain stable). 14

15 INFRASTRUCTURES & ENERGY CARRIERS CONTINUE INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION Net energy imports in 25 TWh/a Strom Electricity PtX Power Fuels Andere Other 858 Energy imports are reduced by almost 3/4, especially of fossil fuels. In the 95%-scenarios, fossil fuels are used only as raw stock (182 TWh). Energy autonomy is not achieved (also not goal of the energy transition) RF EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 Historie History 25 15

16 KEY FINDINGS TECHNOLOGICAL BIAS INCREASES COSTS Accumulated total additional costs compared to reference bn bn bn. EL8 TM8 EL95 TM95 Kapitalkosten* Capital costs FOM-Kosten** costs Primäre Primary Brennstoffkosten fuel costs Infrastrukturkosten Electricity / Gas infrastructure Strom/Gas costs Andere Other infrastructure Infrastrukturkosten costs PtX-Importkosten import costs Stromimportkosten Electricity costs Total Summe Scenarios with a broad mix of energy sources, infrastructures and applications are significantly less expensive and more robust than forcing electricity as a priority energy source. The largest cost block includes investments in generation plants and infrastructures as well as efficient applications these are also economic opportunities. 16

17 KEY FINDINGS BRIEFLY Paths open to a range of technologies are more robust and cost-effective Transformation paths that are more broadly based on existing structures are more socially accepted and require less total investment. Paving the way early on As early as 23, the paths of transformation differ significantly, therefore define targets and instruments in this legislative period of the German Government. Take advantage of the opportunities and potential for Germany The energy transition and climate protection are global trends; the structural change will take place in any case. As a driver of innovation, Germany can benefit fully from the opportunities. 17

18 KEY FINDINGS: SEE BOTH CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION With increased efforts in all sectors, the Paris targets can be achieved. A broad mix of energy sources enables more cost-effective and robust transformation paths. The expansion and integration of renewable energies must be accelerated. Power Fuels complement energy efficiency and the expansion of renewable energies. A reliable planning horizon turns the necessary structural change into a modernization opportunity. The building stock and energy sector require the highest investment, the transport transition needs multiple pillars. A successful energy transition is embedded in international developments. Social acceptance and freedom of choice are crucial for success of this transition. 18

19 THANK YOU! Christoph Jugel Director Energy Systems