Water Implications of Advanced Energy Choices: Understanding the challenges and opportunities

Transcription

1 Water Implications of Advanced Energy Choices: Understanding the challenges and opportunities DU RESCUE (Renewable Energy Science CommUnity and Enterprise) Committee Renewable Energy Speaker Series May 4, 2011 Robin L. Newmark Director, Strategic Energy Analysis Center

2 Hot, Flat and Crowded (Thomas Friedman, 2008) Global Warming Water resources increasingly stressed Rise of the middle class all wanting to consume like Americans, with resource implications! Population growth Between now and 2020, there will be another 1 billion people in the world. If Tom gives each of them a 60W light bulb, it will require about 20 new 500-MW coalburning power plants, just so they can turn on their light bulb. That requires about 160 billion gallons/day (nearly 500 acre-ft) of water to produce. If I give them each a glass of water, it will require almost 200 acre-ft!

3 Hot, Flat and Crowded: Colorado in 2050 Global Warming Rise of the middle class? Can this be sustained? Currently receive only 17 inches of precipitation annually Population growth Mean temperature may rise o F Mountain climates projected to migrate upward in elevation Desert Southwest climate to progress up into the valleys of the Western Slope. Average annual precipitation may show little change, but a seasonal shift in precipitation emerges. Strong decline in lower-elevation snowpack (<8200 ), modest for higher elevations Earlier spring runoff, reduced late-summer flows Population at ~7 million (up from ~5 million today) Demographic shifts (urban sprawl?) Source: Colorado s Population in 2050, NPG, Inc., 2001 Source: Climate Change in Colorado, Western Water Assessment, 2008

4 Energy and Water are linked: Energy for water and water for energy Energy production requires water Thermoelectric cooling Hydropower Extraction and mining Fuel Production (H 2, ethanol, biofuels) Emission controls Water production and distribution require energy Pumping Treatment Transport

5 Water for Energy Water needed to produce household electricity exceeds direct household water use GALLONS PER PERSON PER DAY 510 for food production includes irrigation and livestock 465 to produce household electricity Range: 30 to 600 depending on technology 100 direct household use includes bathing, laundry, lawn watering, etc. Source: derived from Gleick, P. (2002), World's Water

6 Water challenges are nationwide 30% 10% 15% 10% 30% 5% 50% 15% 20% 40% 30% 20% 35% % Projected Population Growth ( ) Source: NETL (2002) Source: USGS Circular 1200 (Year 1995), EPRI 2003

7 Millions of Tons of Oil Equivalent The dominant energy trends are increased fuel use and increased CO 2 emissions 385ppm (2008) Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil (feedstock) Oil Coal Wood Renewables We have never used less of any fuel If all future demand were met by zero carbon sources, we d have the same graph Holdren, 2008

8 Actual emissions for track along the upper range of IPCC emissions scenarios 30.8 billion tons in 2006

9 McKinsey & Co global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual 2030: lots of options considered This is one assessment of potential options and their impacts 140 Source: McKinsey&Co, 2009

10 Global emissions relative to different GHG concentration pathways: indications for rapid response A 10-yr delay in taking abatement action would make it virtually impossible to keep global warming below 2 o C (McKinsey, 2009) Current US goal Aggressive 2ºC goal R. Aines, 2009, after McKinsey & Co., 2009 Some have proposed to address gaps by direct capture of CO 2 from the atmosphere

11 Substantial amounts of water are used in fuel extraction/processing Future energy development will put new demands on water resources Hydrogen Many new technologies are water intensive, increasing demands on water resources: - Biofuels - Hydrogen Water Used for Fuel Extraction and Processing Shale gas uses substantial water (per well values): Drilling: Biofuels 60,000 (Fayetteville) 80,000 (Marcellus) -1,000,000 gal (Haynesville) Frac fluids: 3,800,000 gal (Marcellus) 2,300,000 gal (Barnett) Source: GWPC and ALL (2009), Veil, 2010 Constraints will grow for energy development and power plant siting Gal/MMBTU Source: DOE Report to Congress (2007)

12 We will likely continue to use fossil fuel resources because they are plentiful and we are used to them Proved Recoverable World Reserve Estimated World Resource Natural Gas More than 5,000 Tcf Coal 984 billion tons Methane Hydrates Up to 270 Million Tcf Oil Just over 1 trillion barrels Proved recoverable reserves should last most of the 21st century World Energy Council 1998 Survey of Energy Resources

13 Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) involves multiple processes some have water implications

14 Sustainability metrics: water requirements for electricity generation technologies Differences result from both generation and cooling technologies Renewables Nuclear Adding CCS Source: Macknick et al., 2011

15 New regulations: Estimated EPA ruling impacts Targets Potential Compliance Strategy CATR/NAAQS SO 2, NO x, PM, Ozone Scrubbers, low-no x burners, SCR, fuel switching, inter- and intrastate trading of credits, dispatch Utility MACT Mercury, acid gases, toxins Fabric filters, scrubbers, activated carbon injection, fuel switching Coal Combustion Residuals Storage and disposal of coal residuals Special impoundment lots and/or landfills Water (316b) Heavy water withdrawal (to protect wildlife) Closed loop cooling towers, dry cooling, advanced technology

16 Proposed regulations: implications for investments, retirements Plants potentially required to retrofit or retire EPA regulations State environmental review, permitting regulations Others? 16

17 Synergistic opportunities: Simultaneous CO 2 removal and fresh water production (Decarbonation/Desalination) Separate fresh water along with CO 2 from flue gas - perform two separations in one operation Modern 1 GW IGCC plant s CO 2 : 7.5 million m 3 Treating 7.5 M m 3 of displaced brine to create fresh water could: Help manage pressure in the saline aquifer Provide half the plant s operating fresh water (includes cooling) Source: Aines/Bourcier/Wolfe

18 Advanced designs provide opportunities Dry Cooling Examples From Water-Constrained Regions South Africa: World s largest dry cooling (coal) power station at Matimba (Royal Society of South Africa,1998) Bilibino, FSU: Creative solution to seasonal water scarcity - 4 small graphite reactors, each with a dry cooling tower used in the winter (Horak, pers. comm) Incremental costs over all-wet cooling (Choi and Glicksman, 1979): Fossil (800MWe) Nuclear (1200MWe) high back pressure turbine 11% 22% conventional turbine 15% 25%

19 Advanced designs provide opportunities Using reclaimed water Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station: the only nuclear facility that uses 100% reclaimed water for cooling Maintains zero discharge ; no water discharged to rivers, streams or oceans Water Reclamation Facility: 90 MGD tertiary treatment, reclaiming treated secondary effluent Yearly cost for water treatment is <5% O&M Source:Robert Lotts, ANS 2006 (Arizona Public

20 Water intensity of transportation fuels is likely to increase 20

21 Life cycle assessments: where are the greatest impacts? Example: LCA of Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol-global warming potential and environmental emissions GWP FOR 2022 E85 ACROSS FEEDSTOCKS TOTAL LIFE CYCLE WATER USE FOR 2022 E85 Source: Heath et al.,

22 Energy for Water The Water/Wastewater Sector is already a major user of electricity Percent of U.S. Electricity Generation Used by Industry Source: DOE, Water/Waste Water Paper&Pulp Chemical Petroleum Refining Will increase in future

23 Kwh/m^3 Use of non-traditional water resources is growing Power Requirements For Treatment 10 9 Today The Future Conventional Treatment Brackish NF Brackish RO Sea Water RO (From EPA 2004, Water Reuse 2007, Mickley 2003) (Einfeld 2007) Desal growing at 10% per year, waste water reuse at 15% per year Reuse not accounted for in USGS assessments Non-traditional water use is energy intensive Courtesy, Mike Hightower

24 New water supplies require energy Water Supply Options Fresh Water Importation ( miles) Energy Demand (kwhr/kgal) Seawater Desalination w/reverse Osmosis Brackish Groundwater Desalination Reverse Osmosis Treatment Pumping and concentrate management Total Aquifer Storage and Recovery Pre-treatment (as needed) Post-treatment (as needed) Pumping Total *CPUC pilot program: efficiency credits for energy imbedded in saving water Courtesy, Mike Hightower

25 Separation science: opportunities to reduce the energy requirements for treatment Reverse osmosis: Electrodialysis: Energy Use, MJ/m 3 Fresh / Impaired * Thermal methods

26 NREL is unique: the only DOE national laboratory dedicated solely to renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies Sustainability is a key concept of our energy future Energy-water nexus is addressed in many ways: Water use individual technologies, technology pathways, life cycle assessments Water savings Efficiency, conservation, technology implementation programs Integration - RE with water/wastewater/treatment - RE in energy system portfolios - Energy and water flows in the built environment 26

27 Strategic Energy Analysis Risk and Uncertainty Integrated Assessments Analyze energy scenarios and/or the benefits and impacts of energy plans, programs, portfolios, or policy options Economics, Markets and Finance Evaluate implications of markets, financial instruments and economic factors Systems Overall system performance and technology interfaces in the context of the overall system Technology/Components Analyze technology and component performance and cost Resources Assess resource availability and characteristics

28 The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model offers the high geospatial granularity needed for renewable resource supplies 356 wind/csp resource regions 134 Power Control Areas (PCA) 17 annual time slices 23 2-yr time periods

29 20% Wind By 2030 Study Results

30 Analysis: Evaluation of impacts of a proposed 20% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on the energy sector using ReEDS model Contributions to power generation capacity in a 20% RPS case Contributions to meeting total load in the 20% RPS case Source: Logan et al., 2009

31 Water impacts: initial study assumptions Scenarios in support of a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) focused on utility-scale solar energy development 1. Current energy policy only (currently formulated state RPS goals, no carbon policy, no national RPS) Technologies: Conventionals: Coal (pulverized and IGCC), Gas-CC, Gas-CT, nuclear Renewables: utility-pv, CSP, wind (onshore/offshore), bio, geo, hydro Storage: Compressed air energy storage, pumped-hydro, batteries Technology costs from Black and Veatch, fuel projections from AEO 2010 Regional resource limitations, exclusions based on land considerations (resource intensity, slope, protected lands, incompatible land use (e.g., wetlands, urban areas)) 1 Information on the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) can be found at

32 Scenario results ReEDS optimizes electric sector system cost every 2 years, using a 20-yr investment period Expands generation capacity and transmission capacity to ensure that regional demand and reliability requirements (planning and operating reserves) are met Water consumption factors for individual technologies are applied to results by PCA region These results, from a single scenario, are illustrative of the potential evolution of the electricity sector

33 Water consumption Water intensity Power sector water use decreases in scenario by Gal/MWh <0 Gal/MWh <0 >400 >400 Nationally, water intensity is reduced by 33%; some areas see increases Gallons <0 Gallons <0 Total generation has increased 38%; water consumption has declined 7% overall; some areas see increases >30 billion Source: Newmark et al., 2010 >30 billion

34 2050 scenario breakdowns by generation technology Electricity Generation Wind Solar-CSP Solar-PV Biopower Geothermal Hydro Coal Gas Co-fire Nuclear Generation is dominated by fossil generation (renewables represent a modest 25% of portfolio) Water Consumption Renewables responsible for only ~10% of water consumption Wind Solar-CSP Solar-PV Biopower Geothermal Hydro Coal Gas Co-fire Nuclear Source: Newmark et al., 2010

35 Biopower 2050: a local phenomenon, with relatively minor water implications % Generation % Power sector water consumed <0% <0% >50% Total water consumed Relatively low impact, except in NE, NW >50% Gallons <0 >1 Billion Source: Newmark et al., 2010

36 CSP 2050: deployed primarily in the SW* Wet-cooled CSP Percent of Total Generation Gallons <0 Hybrid-cooled >50 Billion <0% >25% Dry-cooled Gallons <0 >50 Billion Gallons <0 Source: Newmark et al., >50 Billion

37 CSP 2050: Cooling technology can affect water needs Wet-cooled CSP Percent of Total Generation % Consumption <0 <0% >50 >25% Dry-cooled CSP using dry cooling can result in a relatively minor proportion of power sector water consumption overall % Consumption <0 >50 Source: Newmark et al., 2010

38 Wind 2050: strong midwest focus* GWh <0 Significant wind deployment is anticipated >1000 Water requirements are negligible; Opportunities exist for significant avoided water use, especially in the midwest *Note high concentrations over the Ogallala aquifer % Generation <0% >50% Source: Newmark et al., 2010

39 If 25% of coal plants implement carbon capture*, water consumption is expected to increase % Increase <0% >25% At a penetration of 25%, carbon capture increases national water consumption by 18% *using current technologies Source: Newmark et al., 2010

40 What have we learned? Scenario analyses such as these suggest how water demands by the power sector may evolve. - Refinements and specific studies can provide additional detail Technology choices make a difference - Examples: wet vs. dry cooling for CSP, CCS impacts Regional aspects are important Critical next steps: linking results to water availability NOTE: This assessment does not take potential climate change impacts into consideration

41 The Times They Are a-changing Energy resources Increasing global competition and volatility, energy security issues New resources needed and deployed: conventional, unconventional and renewable Water resources Increasing demands, management challenges New resources needed: conventional and unconventional Climate change/policy change Increasing convergence of political and public opinion Observable changes, clearer delineation of risks Emerging CO 2 markets, finance/insurance interest Already driving actions Sustainable options are desired These result in tremendous challenges and opportunities! Courtesy ErgoExergy Ross Dam

42 Opportunities exist for technology innovation to move us beyond current approaches Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. --Albert Einstein

43 Special Thanks Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Department of Energy (DOE), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Department of the Interior (DOI), Matt Mowers, Donna Heimiller, Nate Blair (NREL) Or contact Robin Newmark