CAAFI General Meeting: Aviation Alternative Fuels and the Environment

Transcription

1 CAAFI General Meeting: Aviation Alternative Fuels and the Environment September 30, 2009 Nancy N. Young Vice President, Environmental Affairs 1

2 Why Airlines Want Alternative Fuels Energy Security/Supply Reliability Potential to Help with Energy Costs/Volatility Competition to Petroleum-Based Fuels Million bbl per day U.S. Consumption U.S. Production 63% Total Imports % Environment 2

3 Why Airlines Want Alternative Fuels Environment Corporate Ethic Carbon Emission Controls Means of further reducing carbon output and cost exposures from carbon pricing Potential for Reducing Emissions with Local Air Quality Impact 3

4 Climate Change Perception Versus Reality Perception Aviation is a major climate change contributor Reality Aviation is a relatively small contributor Domestic US commercial aviation = 2% GHGs (source: EPA) Worldwide aviation = 2% man-made CO 2 (source: IPCC) The airlines and industry are working on further reductions Challenges/Concerns Aviation demand is projected to grow, and therefore so are aviation emissions but this must be kept in context Most likely IPCC scenario estimates global aviation 3% CO 2 and 5% climate change impact in 2050; even so, we know we must work to decrease this 4

5 Self Determination to Limit GHG Emissions Four Means of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Aviation Technology Operations Infrastructure Improvements Economic Regulation ( Market-Based Measures ) Taxes/charges Emissions trading Airlines Already Are Motivated to Get as Much Reduction as Possible from the First Three Airlines are Driven to Be Extremely Fuel Efficient Fuel is our #1 cost center 5

6 Fuel Efficiency = Emissions Efficiency Airlines Excellent Fuel Efficiency Record US airlines improved fuel efficiency ~110% between 1978 and 2008* 2.7 billion metric tons of CO 2 savings = taking ~19.5 million cars off the road each of those years* From 2000 to 2008 Reduced absolute fuel burn and emissions ~ 5.5%* Increased passengers and cargo 17%* To Continue to Improve, Must Be Able to Invest *Fuel/savings/traffic source: U.S. DOT Form 41; automobile equivalent calculations from 6

7 Technology, Operations and Infrastructure Technology Enhance existing fleet (e.g., winglets) Invest in newer aircraft R&D for engines & airframes (50% cut in USG funding past 10 years) Invest in alternative fuels Operations Weight reduction Maintenance (like engine wash) Operational procedures within existing ATM Infrastructure Invest in equipage for U.S. NextGen & Single European Sky/SESAR We need NowGen! 7

8 Positive Financial Incentives Can Help Stimulate R&D and Technology Deployment... But Harmful, Punitive Economic Measures Are Proliferating EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Emissions Taxes Waxman-Markey & Other US Proposals 8

9 Key Concerns with Punitive Measures Negative Impacts on the Airline Industry s Ability to Invest in Improvements within the Industry How Best to Split up Carbon Pie? Aviation is an extremely fuel- and GHG-efficient economic engine Consistency with International Law and Policy International aviation is subject to treaty ( Chicago Convention ) to enhance harmonization and avoid trade wars; so an international approach is needed 9

10 The Way Forward... Global, Sectoral Approach for Aviation Makes sense international industry Context: International Negotiations with Domestic Acceptance or Mirroring Countries are working on a post-kyoto deal International negotiations slated to culminate in Copenhagen in December 2009 with a deal Negotiations now expected to extend into 2010 ICAO Working on Possible Approaches for International Aviation ICAO High Level Meeting Oct. 7-9, 2009 Will feed into Copenhagen discussions and beyond Also, work ongoing through ICAO Assembly in Sept

11 The Way Forward (cont.) What Is the Approach? Framework set by ICAO & accepted within larger climate change treaty negotiations Collective aviation-specific emissions targets Fuel efficiency improvements that result in annual average improvement of 1.5% through 2020 Make the growth of the industry s emissions carbon neutral beginning in 2021 Aspirational goal of 50% reduction in emissions in 2050, relative to 2005 levels All subject to government investment and do no harm so technology, operations & infrastructure improvements flourish 11

12 CO Emissions Baseline Baseline Low Carbon Fuels Low Carbon Fuels How Do We Meet Our Targets? Alternative Fuels Are a Critical Element Notional Example Ongoing Ongoing Fleet Fleet Renewal Renewal / / Technology Technology Development Development ATC/NowGen/ Operational Improvements ATC/NowGen/ Operational Improvements Forecasted Forecasted Emissions Emissions Growth Growth Absent Absent Reduction Reduction Measures Measures CO2 Emissions Carbon Neutral Growth and Reduction Timeline Carbon Neutral Growth and Reduction Timeline 12

13 Context for a Global Sectoral Approach Countries Are Working on a Post-Kyoto Deal International negotiations slated to culminate in Copenhagen in December 2009 with a deal Negotiations now expected to extend into 2010 ICAO Continues to Work on Possible Approaches for International Aviation ICAO High Level Meeting Oct. 7-9, 2009 Will feed into Copenhagen discussions and beyond Also, work ongoing through ICAO Assembly in Sept Country-Specific Legislation should Be Made Consistent 13

14 Potential Way Forward (cont.) Reflecting the Global, Sectoral Approach in U.S. Policy Any U.S. climate legislation should accept this as the approach for aviation Not a carve out, but a carve in The U.S. must Implement accelerated NextGen, including federal funding for aircraft equipage, training, etc. Fully support development and deployment of aviation alternative fuels Reinstate (and increase) R&D and investment for aircraft technology Do in context of solid energy policy, including stable fuel supplies and appropriate control of commodity futures speculation 14

15 Aviation s Local Air Quality Improvements Emissions Index 1980 = PM 10 CO HC SO x NO x Source: FAA 15

16 Local Air Quality Challenges Remain EPA Making National Ambient Air Quality Standards More Stringent Increasing Concerns Regarding Particulate Matter Alternative Fuels Offer the Potential to Help Address This Aircraft and ground service equipment, at the tailpipe 16

17 Demonstrating Environmental Benefit Local Air Quality Emissions Alternative fuel can result in lowering the amount of emissions with local air quality impacts that are emitted from the aircraft engine e.g., lower sulfur in the fuel = lower SO 2 emitted Carbon Emissions Achieving significant carbon benefit in aviation for the foreseeable future requires environmental improvement across the life cycle of the fuel Emissions of carbon measured at the tailpipe may not be that different than from traditional fuel as today s combustion engines need the carbon energy source Dr. Lourdes Maurice Will Address 17

18 Look Up! If You Want to Feel Good About the Future, We Are America s Airlines Connecting and Protecting Our Planet SM 18