Dr. Jacobus Hofstede. Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior

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2 CPSL I Tasks: describe administrative structures and organisation develop common knowledge basis define and apply hydrological scenarios compilation and first appraisal of best environmental practices for coastal protection under different scenarios Composition: coastal defence and environmental administration

3 National administrative structures Common knowledge basis Analysis of changes Impact of changes Best Environmental Practice Options Conclusions and Recommendations

4 Common knowledge basis the Wadden Sea comprises of sand sharing systems the systems show a great variance the systems have a high resilience to changes

5 Barrier island Salt marshes Tidal flats

6 Scenarios (till 2050) Scenario 1: a continuation of current sea level rise of about 10 cm per 50 years Scenario 2: a sea level rise of 25 cm per 50 years (the intermediate and most realistic scenario) Scenario 3: sea level rise of 50 cm per 50 years (worst case scenario) => with or without increasing storminess source: IPCC 2001

7 Ecological impacts Generally, changes caused by sea level rise and/or increasing storminess will not easily be distinguishable from changes resulting from the high natural variability, which is a specific feature of the Wadden Sea system. Moreover, there will be large differences in changes occurring in the different tidal basins. Because the Wadden Sea has a high resilience to changes it was considered plausible that the Wadden Sea will be able to adapt to a sea level rise up to some 25 cm per 50 years (the most realistic scenario), without substantial changes. Beyond such levels probably a breakpoint will occur because the capacity of the system to balance the changes will become exhausted. The group estimates that, under the worst case scenario (50 cm per 50 years), the size of the tidal flats might decrease by 15% (720 km 2 ), the tidal basins becoming more the character of tidal lagoons.

8 Morphological consequences

9 Impacts on coastal protection Realistic scenario: the group expects an increase of costs for dike maintenance and strengthening of at least 5 to 15% Worst case scenario: the costs to maintain dike safety may increase by 75% in Germany and even more in The Netherlands and Denmark. Also the costs for other coastal defence measures, such as sand nourishment and salt marsh works will increase considerably. Another important consequence of increased sea level is that possibilities for discharging fresh water from the mainland into the sea will become less and that additional sluicing, pumping and/or fresh water storage capacity is needed.

10 Measures

11 CPSL I: Conclusions 1: the Wadden Sea has a high natural variability 2: the Wadden Sea has a high resilience to changes 3: after a breakpoint (which is different for every tidal basin), significant changes will occur 4: coastal protection measures may alleviate, not prevent impacts of SLR and storminess. 5: there still is a lack of qualified data

12 CPSL I: Recommendations Policies: start to develop long-term interdisciplinary policies for coastal protection, nature protection and economic development, e.g., by the establishment of regional management plans Best Environmental Practices: feasibility studies of the BEP-options chosen in CPSL I within a long-term perspective Public Perception: develop a communication strategy with the aim of starting a discussion with the public on possible climate impacts in the Wadden Sea Research and Monitoring: research into the sediment budget as well as the links between geomorphological and biological changes should be conducted. Evaluate the TMAP parameters for their suitability to monitor impacts of climate change in the Wadden Sea

13 Outlook CPSL II Time frame: Autumn Autumn 2004! Composition: similar to CPSL I tasks: the elaboration of BEP measures on (1) safety standards, (2) benefit-cost, (3) natural assets, (4) public acceptance, (5) legal aspects, and (6) harmony with other interests. associated integrated policies => Wadden Sea Forum Scenarios: below breakpoint and above breakpoint