GHG Emissions from Bioenergy: A longer-term View

Transcription

1 GHG Emissions from Bioenergy: A longer-term View Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division, Darmstadt Office Oeko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology) presented at the JRC-INTA Expert Consultation GHG Emissions from Biofuels and Bioenergy Buenos Aires March 29-30, 2011

2 GHG Emissions of Bioenergy

3 System Approach for LCA

4 GEMIS Database Energy Materials Transport technical data emission data cost data direct job data Linking of unit processes creates life-cycles

5 EU Bioenergy Note: data shown exclude LUC

6 EU Bioelectricity: BioCH coal-fired ST, EU gas-fired CC, EU ATN CON MED biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen ATN biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen CON biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen ATN SCR-gasified ICEcogen CON SCR-gasified ICEcogen CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC

7 EU Bioelectricity: BioCH coal-fired ST, EU coal-fired ST, EU ATN CON MED biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen ATN biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen CON biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen ATN SCR-gasified ICEcogen CON SCR-gasified ICEcogen CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC

8 EU Bioelectricity: Solids coal ST, EU 2010 coal ST, EU 2030 gas-cc, EU 2010 gas-cc, EU 2030 wood chips forest cogen SE wood chips forest cogen ORC wood-pellets cogen- Stirling wood-chips-forest FBcogen-ICE wood-chips-forest FBcogen-microGT wood-chips forest acfbcogen-ice wood chips forest press.fb CC wood chips forest press.fb CC-cogen straw-cogen-bp straw-cogen-se straw-cogen-orc CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC

9 EU Bioheat: Noe: data shown exclude LUC gas heat, EU oil heat, EU SRC-chips-heating SRC-chips-heating ATN SRC-chips-heating CON SRC-chips-heating miscanthusheatplant miscanthusheatplant MED miscanthusheatplant GHG emissions in g/kwh th switchgrassheatplant switchgrassheatplant ATN switchgrassheatplant CON giant-reedheatplant MED switchgrassheatplant CO2 eq. CO2 data for 2010

10 EU Bioheat: gas-heating oil-heating SRC-chips-heating SRC-chips-heating ATN SRC-chips-heating CON SRC-chips-heating miscanthusheatplant miscanthusheatplant MED miscanthusheatplant switchgrassheatplant switchgrassheatplant ATN switchgrassheatplant CON giant-reedheatplant MED switchgrassheatplant CO2 eq. CO2 data for 2030 GHG emissions in g/kwh th Noe: data shown exclude LUC

11 What about ILUC?

12 iluc Factor share in world land mix for agricultural exports region, crop, previous land use REF HIGH LOW EU, rapeseed, arable land 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% EU, rapeseed, grassland 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% AR/BR, soybean, grassland 20% 20% 21% 23% 20% 26% AR/BR, soybean, savannah 0% 0% 2% 3% 6% 0% ID, oil palm, grassland 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 5% ID, oil palm, degraded land 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% ID, oil palm, trop. rain forest 3% 3% 4% 4% 8% 0% EU, wheat, arable land 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% EU, wheat, grassland 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% US, maize, arable land 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% US, maize, grassland 26% 25% 30% 33% 33% 33% BR, sugarcane, arable land 7% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% BR, sugarcane, grassland 9% 14% 18% 26% 24% 18% BR, sugarcane, degraded land 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% BR, sugarcane, savannah 5% 4% 3% 2% 4% 0% iluc factor [t CO 2 /ha/year] maximal iluc iluc25% iluc50% world mix : export shares of countries (AR/BR, EU, ID, US) for agro products (rape, maize, palm, soy, wheat), yield and trade data from FAOSTAT trend projections ( ), and scenarios (2030)

13 ILUC: Dynamic View Needed Future iluc can become low: Dampening ILUC through REDD (if adequately implemented and financed) free land from intensification (baseline, tradeoffs!) LUC policies in key countries (AR, BR, ID, ZA ) Prioritizing low-iluc feedstocks: wastes/residues (2nd generation) unused/degraded land (with biodiversity/social safeguards) iluc is no fate

14 Conclusions on Bioenergy Bioenergy can be used to aim for maximum GHG reduction at reasonable cost Up to 2020, best use is electricity and heat, less for transport fuels (see BUBE of IEA Bioenergy/IEA RETD) Up to 2050, strict climate targets might require shifting to biofuels for trucks, ships and aviation bioenergy with CCS to reduce atmospheric CO 2 Cultivation of perennial crops on low-carbon land: sequestration of atmospheric C in soils reduces deforestation pressures (development alternatives, access to modern energy)

15 Conclusions on LCA LCA useful for unit comparison of systems without major changes (ceteris paribus) Material Flow Analysis (MFA) more adequate approach to reflect future system changes: Technology and market dynamics are important to consider in scenarios ( future corridor ) Policy can influence dynamics (e.g. for LUC) MFA needed to substantiate shaping of future biomass markets and technology portfolios

16 Access and Contact Using and distributing GEMIS is free Software & database + tours available from website: (GEMIS version 4.7 to be released in April 2011, version 5 in 2012) Contacts Data: u.fritsche@oeko.de Help/seminars: u.draude@oeko.de Program: l.rausch@oeko.de

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