Could You really drive without a (road) map?

Transcription

1 38 th Euroheat & Power Congress May 2017, Glasgow, United Kingdom Could You really drive without a (road) map? Urban Persson Halmstad University (SE) Organised by

2 Could You really drive without a (road) map? Sure, where are the keys?! Wherever You get is where You re going Improvisation: Ad-hoc-ability! But, no, not really : Not, if You have a predefined destination Not, if You need to get there in time! Not, if You are traveling with others Not, if the future of the world depends upon it!

3 Presentation overview Heat Roadmap Europe Project Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions and realising the potential Roll out and gear up The pre-studies: Mapping and modelling DH expansion Full speed ahead Country assessments (HRE3 & HRE4) and web map services City skyline on the horizon Empowering urban areas and the future of heat mapping Conclusions Devoted drivers and look into Your own garage

4 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Energy Roadmap 2050 Electrification of heat markets? Connolly D, Vad Mathiesen B, Alberg Östergaard P, Möller B, Nielsen S, Lund H, et al. Heat Roadmap Europe 2050: First pre-study for EU27. Brussels, Euroheat & Power, 2012 (p. 18).

5 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Energy Roadmap 2050 Electrification of heat markets? Local synergy options? Local excess heat? no aggregate local conditions Business-as-usual scenarios Fewer possibilities for radical technological changes! Connolly D, Vad Mathiesen B, Alberg Östergaard P, Möller B, Nielsen S, Lund H, et al. Heat Roadmap Europe 2050: First pre-study for EU27. Brussels, Euroheat & Power, 2012 (p. 19).

6 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Local heat distribution infrastructures for improved efficiency! Heat demands Settlement structures Expansion potentials AGFW. Verfahren zur Entwicklung einer digitalen Wärmebedarfskarte für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Approaches to develop a digital heat demand map for Germany). Forschung und Entwicklung, Heft 14. Der Energieeffizienzverband für Wärme, Kälte und KWK e. V. Frankfurt am Main, 2010 (Figure 3-1, p. 21).

7 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Local heat distribution infrastructures for improved efficiency! Heat demands Settlement structures Expansion potentials Local demands provided by local assets! Heat resources Frederiksen S, Werner S. District Heating and Cooling: Studentlitteratur AB, Lund, 2013: Figure 2-2. Example of illustration of the fundamental idea of district heating with respect to diversity in heat supply. Original illustration source: Svensk Fjärrvärme (Swedish District Heating Association).

8 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Local heat distribution infrastructures for improved efficiency! Heat demands Settlement structures Expansion potentials Local demands provided by local assets! Heat resources Heat atlases Source: aermedichtekarte_baden_wuerttemberg_250m.jpg

9 Rear mirror view Understanding local conditions: Local heat distribution infrastructures for improved efficiency! Heat demands Settlement structures Expansion potentials Local demands provided by local assets! Heat resources Heat atlases Geographical information systems and energy models! Left: Screenshot of an ArcGIS project file used in the mapping part of the Heat Roadmap Europe 4 project. Right: Illustration of the EnergyPlan Model tool, from: Lund H, Mathiesen BV. Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems The case of Denmark in years 2030 and Energy. 2009;34(5): (Figure 2).

10 Rear mirror view Realising the potential: Urban areas provide high heat and cold demand densities European District heating at modest current heat market shares (buildings): 11% national (2015) ~20% urban Source: Persson U, Werner S. Heat distribution and the future competitiveness of district heating. Applied Energy. 2011;88:

11 Rear mirror view Realising the potential: Three-fold directly feasible expansion of DH in EU cities! Source: Persson U, Werner S. Heat distribution and the future competitiveness of district heating. Applied Energy. 2011;88:

12 Roll out and gear up The pre-studies Energy efficiency measures introduced on both supply and demand sides of the energy system results in equal decarbonisation as heat savings alone - but at lower total energy system costs! HRE Second pre-study (2013) Smart energy systems provide flexibility by increased transferability between main infrastructures. Gas and power infrastructures are continental - Heat infrastructures are local! HRE initial ideas ( )

13 Mapping and modelling DH expansion Roll out and gear up

14 Roll out and gear up Mapping and modelling DH expansion District heating market shares by 2050 Energy Roadmap 2050: ~0.5 EJ (EE scenario) Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE2): ~5.0 EJ Connolly D, et al. Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system. Energy Policy. 2014;65:

15 Roll out and gear up Mapping and modelling DH expansion District heating market shares by 2050 Energy Roadmap 2050: ~0.5 EJ (EE scenario) Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE2): ~5.0 EJ Costs for heating of buildings Optimization Energy savings vs. energy recovery Most expensive energy savings avoided ~15% lower heat sector costs Connolly D, et al. Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system. Energy Policy. 2014;65:

16 Roll out and gear up Mapping and modelling DH expansion District heating market shares by 2050 Energy Roadmap 2050: ~0.5 EJ (EE scenario) Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE2): ~5.0 EJ Costs for heating of buildings Optimization Energy savings vs. energy recovery Most expensive energy savings avoided ~15% lower heat sector costs ~10% lower total system costs Connolly D, et al. Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system. Energy Policy. 2014;65:

17 Full speed ahead Country assessments (HRE3 - Stratego) Five EU Member States CZ, HR, IT, RO, UK Stratego strategy: More heat savings in buildings Replace NG with DH in urban areas Rural areas: comparison of individual heating alternatives (HP el, Radiator el, Boilers bio and oil ) Utilisation of excess and renewable heat resources Source: Connolly D, et al. Enhanced Heating and Cooling Plans to Quantify the Impact of Increased Energy Efficiency in EU Member States. Translating the Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology to Member State Level. Work Package 2. Main Report: Executive Summary. Stratego: Enhanced Heating and Cooling Plans. Project No: IEE/13/

18 Full speed ahead Country assessments (HRE3 - Stratego) Heat savings: 30-50% DH (from 0-25% today): 40-70% DH supply from renewables and excess heat: 35-60% Source: Connolly D, et al. Enhanced Heating and Cooling Plans to Quantify the Impact of Increased Energy Efficiency in EU Member States. Translating the Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology to Member State Level. Work Package 2. Main Report: Executive Summary. Stratego: Enhanced Heating and Cooling Plans. Project No: IEE/13/

19 Full speed ahead Web map services (HRE3)

20 Full speed ahead Web map services (HRE4)

21 Full speed ahead?

22 Full speed ahead No real transition so far!

23 Full speed ahead No real transition so far! Reduced fossil shares, more waste and biomass, ok! Where is the radical technological change?

24 City skyline on the horizon!

25 City skyline on the horizon Here is the radical technological change!

26 Empowering urban areas City skyline on the horizon Source: Riahi L. District Energy in Cities: Unlocking the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

27 City skyline on the horizon Empowering urban areas The heat/cold synergy opportunities present in cities should be well understood world wide today Heat mapping supports this understanding The scientific community can provide heat mapping services based on principal knowledge of the energy system, the mechanisms, the parameters in play but cannot itself carry out transition!

28 City skyline on the horizon Empowering urban areas Maybe we need to ask: WHO is driving? Transition calls for devoted and persistent drivers! Heat synergy infrastructures require long-term views In this sense, technical research & development (incl. mapping) is not the primary issue Policy and funding issue! Intent and implementation issue!

29 City skyline on the horizon The future of heat mapping Continental mapping: General understanding, theoretical potentials Overview and plausibility studies at national level Local mapping: Specific understanding, technical/economical potentials Viability and feasibility studies of heat synergy projects City topologies, BIM data, 3D Modelling (CityGML)

30 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

31 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

32 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

33 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

34 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

35 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

36 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

37 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

38 The future of heat mapping City skyline on the horizon Source:

39 Conclusions Devoted drivers Transition to more district energy in European cities Realistic and cost-effective approach for improved efficiency Heat mapping has illustrated the local perspective of district energy Future mapping goes local, merges with building information models and 3D modelling of city infrastructures No transition so far, but reduced fossil footprint in European DHS Look into your own garage Progressive policy making Long-term visions, long-term collaborations, recognised mutuality Awareness, appreciation, attitudes Influence of cultural contexts on energy systems preferences! You can change nobody else, only yourself!

40 38 th Euroheat & Power Congress May 2017, Glasgow, United Kingdom Thank You! This presentation is based partly on original research performed within the Heat Roadmap Europe project, the Stratego project (both with basic funding from the European Commission), as well as work performed within the Danish 4DH research centre with basic funding from the Danish Innovation Fund. For more information: 4DH research centre: Heat Roadmap Europe: See also papers on Heat Roadmap Europe: Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions Organised by