The EPA Regulatory Cascade: What Can State Legislatures Do?

Transcription

1 The EPA Regulatory Cascade: What Can State Legislatures Do? Change picture on Slide Master American Legislative Exchange Council Washington, D.C. December 2, 2010 PRESENTED BY Peter Glaser Troutman Sanders LLP th Street, NW Suite 1000 Washington, DC

2 Cap and Trade is Dead What Is Administration Plan Next? Obtain Same Result Through Regulation: We may end up having to do it in chunks, as opposed to some sort of comprehensive omnibus legislation. Pres. Obama interview with Rolling Stone, 9/28/10

3 The EPA Regulatory Train Wreck

4 Environmental Regulatory Timeline for Coal Units Ozone SO2/NO2 CAIR Water Revised Ozone NAAQS Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap CAIR Vacated CAIR Remanded Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS NO2 Primary NAAQS SO2 Primary NAAQS Proposed CAIR Replacement Rule Expected CO2 Regulation Final CAIR Replacement Rule Expected Effluent Guidelines proposed rule expected SO2/NO2 Secondary NAAQS 316(b) final rule expected Effluent Guidelines Final rule expected Next Ozone NAAQS Revision 316(b) Compliance 3-4 yrs after final rule Effluent Guidelines Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 PM-2.5 SIPs due ( 97) CAMR & Delisting Rule vacated Begin CAIR Phase I Annual NOx Cap Begin CAIR Phase I Annual SO2 Cap Proposed Rule for CCBs Management PM2.5 Next PM- Final 2.5 Rule for NAAQS CCBs Revision Mgmt HAPs MACT proposed rule 316(b) proposed rule expected HAPS MACT final rule expected Final EPA Nonattainment Designations Ash PM-2.5 SIPs due ( 06) New PM-2.5 NAAQS Designations Begin Compliance Requirements under Final CCB Rule (ground water monitoring, double monitors, closure, dry ash conversion) Hg/HAPS Beginning CAIR Phase II Annual SO2 & NOx Caps HAPS MACT Compliance with Compliance 3 yrs CAIR after final rule Replacement Rule CO2 Beginning CAIR Phase II Seasonal NOx Cap 4

5 And This Is Just a Small Part of It In the next year or two, EPA will be proposing GHG gas regulation of everything: from large industrial and manufacturing facilities to cars, trucks and buses, to farm equipment, to any kind of mobile equipment like fork lifts and lawn mowers, to ships and boats EPA as the regulator of everything, because everything runs on fossil fuels 85% of domestic energy

6 What Will This Accomplish? Nothing Because Developed Country emissions are relatively level, while Developing Country emissions are rising steeply: a coal plant a week in China

7 EPA Projection of Atmospheric GHG Concentrations if U.S. Acts Unilaterally or With Developing Countries Unilateral U.S. action achieves almost nothing If developing countries don t reduce until 2050, GHGs still accumulate in atmosphere To stabilize emissions, developing countries must significantly reduce at the same time as developing nations (the G8 scenario)

8 EPA Admits: No Benefits from EPA Regulation of GHGs Auto Rule (according to EPA analysis): - CO2 in atmosphere will be reduced by 2100 by 2.9 ppm (vs. almost 400 ppm today) - global mean temperature will be reduced by C Stationary Source Rules. EPA: we don t know, we haven t studied it

9 What Will All the Regulations Cost? EPA has not studied that either Job losses? Effect on GDP? Number of businesses relocating overseas? They don t know But independent studies show 15-33% of coal-fired electric generation is in peril in next few years, threatening reliability of electric grid

10 Administration s Climate Change Policy?

11 Emissions vs. Growth Emissions Down 60% Source: epa.gov/airtrends/images/comparison70.jpg, epa.gov/air/emissions and

12 % % 7.3 7% 6.7 8% Retail Electric Rates and Use of Coal for Electricity % % 5.7 1% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % < 8.0 > > 9.5 Hydro % % % % % % % % % NH % VT % MA % RI % CT % NJ % DE % MD % FL %

13 What Can a State Legislature Do? Raise your voice EPA and the Administration need to understand that Middle America is pushing back First quarter may be decisive state resolutions asking EPA to pause on new rulemakings except in case of health or environmental emergency For now, economic recovery must come first