Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

Transcription

1 Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe Peter Berrill 1,3, Anders Arvesen 1, Yvonne Scholz 2, Hans Christian Gils 2 and Edgar Hertwich 1,3 1 Industrial Ecology Programme, (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway 2 Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR) 3 School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University International Energy Workshop, UCC 2 June 2016 peterberrill@gmail.com

2 Outline Starting Point & Methodology Electricity Technology Comparison Focus on European system Look at World Perspective Insights

3 Starting point Electricity becoming more important in the world energy system What are environmental, health and resource use implications of: A massive expansion of low-carbon electricity? Business As Usual? Any combination/scenario between..

4 Methodology: Life Cycle Assessment

5 CH 4 SO 2 Nat. gas extraction

6 CH 4 SO 2 PO 4 3 Ni, Mg Nat. gas extraction Coal Mining

7 CH 4 SO 2 Eutrophication Ecotoxicity Nat. gas extraction PO 4 3 Ni, Mg Coal Mining

8 Climate Change Particulate Matter Formation Eutrophication Ecotoxicity CH 4 SO 2 PO 4 3 Ni, Mg Nat. gas extraction Coal Mining

9 Model 2010 Model 2030 Model 2050 Methods THEMIS IEA ETP scenarios Expert judgment Literature NEEDS scenarios Energy and material flow quantities, prices Energy and material flow quantities for few sectors Ecoinvent Economy-wide energy and economic changes EXIOBASE GTAP Regional aggregation Technology system life cycle inventories 2010 Technology system life cycle inventories 2030 Technology system life cycle inventories 2050 CLRTAP Evolution of emission levels Gibon et al. 2015, Environ. Sci. Technol., doi: /acs.est.5b01558

10 Technology Comparisons UNEP (2016) Green Energy Choices: The benefits, risks, and trade-offs of low-carbon technologies for electricity production

11 Technology Comparisons Solar (Concentrated Solar Power, PV) Wind (Onshore, Offshore) Natural Gas Coal With/without Carbon Capture & Storage Hydropower

12 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (gco 2eq /kwh) UNEP (2016) Green Energy Choices: The benefits, risks, and trade-offs of low-carbon technologies for electricity production

13 Human Health Impacts (DALY/TWh)

14 Land Occupation (m 2 a/mwh)

15 European Case Europe s electricity system in REMix. Least cost optimisation model Includes transmission grid and energy storage Parameters: CO 2 prices ( 50/ton, 150/ton) and renewable energy production: 0-140% of total demand (before curtailment)

16 Generation Mix Natural gas Renewables Coal w/ccs Renewables Berrill et al. (2016)

17 Climate Benefits of Renewable Energy Natural Gas Renewables -90%

18 Climate Benefits of Renewable Energy Coal with CCS Renewables -66%

19 Particulate Matter Formation Impacts Natural gas Renewables Coal with CCS Renewables

20 Freshwater Eutrophication Impacts Natural gas Renewables Coal with CCS Renewables

21 Freshwater Ecotoxicity Impacts Natural gas Renewables Coal with CCS Renewables

22 Metal Depletion Impacts Natural gas Renewables Coal with CCS Renewables

23 Land Occupation Impacts Natural gas Renewables Coal with CCS Renewables

24 World Case

25 IEA Blue Map vs business as usual scenarios Hertwich et al (2015)

26 Insights Renewables reduce GHG and also human health impacts, and ecosytem damage. Wind more than solar...but material demands are higher CCS can reduce GHG emissions, but leads to higher impacts elsewhere Additional impacts from grid extensions, and energy storage are minor

27 QUESTIONS?

28 QUESTIONS?

29 Model Structure of table Foreground Economy Final demand Physical units LCI database 0 Physical units VA Foreground str. 0 Process stressor matrix MRIO database 9 reg. 138 sect. Value added Emissions in air, water, soil 9 regions China India OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Pacific Economies in transition Latin America Asia Africa and Middle-East Monetary units

30 REMix Projections