Director of Planning and Studies

Transcription

1 Economic Development and the Growth in Electricity it Demand Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning and Studies Abu Dhabi Water Wt and Electricity it Company (ADWEC) ae MEED Abu Dhabi Conference th 16 th November 2011 Beach Rotana Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company Tel: Fax:

2 Electricity Demand and Economic Activity Theoretical Background Econometric Studies have consistently shown Electricity Demand is highly correlated with measures of Economic Activity : GDP Industrial Output Service Sector Output Real Personal Disposable Income Labour Force Correlation varies by stage of Development and Composition of GDP. Not necessarily a 1 : 1 relationship (e.g. Service v Industry sectors). High Electricity Prices reduce correlation (e.g. OECD). Few substitutes for electricity. Electricity Demand is a Good Short-Term Leading Indicator of Economic Activity. 2

3 2011 Electricity Demand Data Abu Dhabi s Electricity Peak Demand : MW +12% (7,683 MW) Abu Dhabi s Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +14% (August 2011 / 2010) Electricity Exports (FEWA / SEWA) : + >300 MW +19% ( 2,066 MW) (Global = Abu Dhabi + Exports) Global Peak Electricity Production : MW +14% (~9,800 MW) Global Monthly Electricity Demand / Output : (MWh) +16% (August 2011 v August 2010) International Comparison China Electricity Consumption : + 9.1% p.a. (August months) China GDP (1:1 relationship) : + 9.1% 1%p.a. (2011 Q3 v 2010 Q3) Abu Dhabi s Electricity Demand Growing Faster (%) than China. 3

4 Electricity Demand v Economic Activity Abu Dhabi s Electricity Peak Demand : MW +12% Abu Dhabi s Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +14% (August 2011 / 2010) Abu Dhabi Economy Source: (Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development October 2011) : ~ 4.5% p.a. (2011) Source: (Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development October 2011) : ~ 4.5% to 5% p.a. (2012) Abu Dhabi Airport (2011 Q3) Passenger Traffic : + 15% p.a. (2011 Q3 v 2010 Q3) Cargo Volume : + 7% p.a. (2011 Q3 v 2010 Q3) Conclusion : Electricity Demand Growing 2 3 times faster than Economic Activity. 4

5 ( ) Actual Peak Electricity Demands 2011 Annual Peak Demands (MW) Growth Peak Date Emirate of Abu Dhabi 5,616 6,255 6,885 7, % 15th August 2011 (16:53) Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Internal UAE Exports) 6,620 7,680 8,563 9,749 1, % 15th August 2011 (16:53) Peak Exports (Internal UAE) 854 1,275 1,737 2, % 17th July 2011 Emirate of Abu Dhabi + UAE Exports + GGC Exports 9, v 2008 Annual Peak Demands (MW) v v 2008 Average Per Annum Emirate of Abu Dhabi 11.4% 10.1% 11.6% 37% 11.0% Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports) 16.0% 11.5% 13.9% 47% 13.8% Peak Exports 142% 34.2% Exports Peak Exports (MW) Growth 2011 v 2008 Average Per Annum FEWA (including FE ) , % 25% SEWA % 62% DEWA th February 2011 (09:00) GCC Export (maximum contract) 100 September contract with Bahrain. Exports to GCC (Bahrain) for first time, previously all electricity exports to Northern Emirates Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW in 2012 for first time 5

6 Emirate of Abu Dhabi Rising Peak Electricity Demand Growth Average : 8% p.a Average : 7% p.a. Pre-ADNOC Supply Very little ADNOC (Oil GDP) related electricity demand before Provides a good historic i proxy for Non-Oil GDP s electricity it demand d growth. Future Mega Projects / Industrial electricity demand expected to result in growth rate > 7% p.a Average : 10% p.a. Electricity demand has grown > 10% in 4 out of 5 years. Post-2006 electricity demand has grown faster than pre Last 3 years Average : 11% p.a. (2011 v 2008) Conclusion Abu Dhabi s Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years. Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW in 2012 for first time 6

7 Electricity Demand Forecasting Structure ADWEC s electricity demand forecast prepared on a broad GDP sector basis. Exports (~2,100 MW) Internal UAE Exports : FEWA / SEWA / FE (~2,066 MW 2011) External GCC Exports : ADWEC s exports to Bahrain August 50 MW / September MW. ADNOC (Oil and Gas Sector) ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) (~500+ MW 2011). Industry (~600 MW 2011) Industry Emirates Steel ZonesCorp Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD). ChemaWEyaat (Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company). ADBIC (Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation). Residential / Service Sectors (~6 6,140 MW 2011) Government Residential (e.g. Al Raha Beach / Al Reem Island). Commercial Tourism (e.g. Yas Island / Saadiyat Island / Abu Dhabi Airport) Workers Accommodation. 7

8 ADWEC s Northern Emirates Exports In March 2011, H.H. President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates electricity and water sector. As a result of that announcement, ADWEA provided ADWEC with new electricity export forecasts to use for planning purposes. ADWEC s 2011 peak exports of 2,066 MW were broadly similar in size to : FEWA capacity (approximately 1,300 MW) ) SEWA capacity (approximately 2,400 MW) Total = (approximately 3,700 MW) ADWEC s Peak Exports to Northern Emirates > +80% ( ). ADWEC s 2013 Exports Forecast exports = 3,800+ MW and will exceed: a) Sum of current FEWA + SEWA capacity. b) Abu Dhabi s 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW). c) Bahrain or Jordan s 2010 peak demands of around 2,700 MW. 8

9 ADWEC's Global Electricity Demand Forecast Winter 2010 / 2011 Early Years : Likely to be dominated by increases in electricity demand from : Electricity Exports to Northern Emirates (FEWA / SEWA) ADNOC (Oil and Gas GDP). Later Years electricity demand from Industry Residential / Commercial Mega Projects likely to become steadily more important as Plan 2030 delivered. Annual Electricity Demand to Flatten due to development of : ADNOC Industry since these electricity demands are less sensitive to temperature. Energy MWh demand to grow faster than Peak MW demand. 9

10 ADWEC Fuel Demand Forecast Before Deducting the Contribution of Nuclear / Renewables to Reducing Fuel Demand Volumetric Gas demand (Mscft) Global l yearly Consumption Mscft 563, , , ,773 1,000,702 1,111, ,187, ,307,809 1,375,657 1,457,956 1,539,728 Average daily Consumption Mscft 1,544 1,839 1,924 2,495 2,742 3,045 3,245 3,583 3,769 3,994 4,207 Peak Daily Consumption. Mscft 1,848 2,091 2,272 2,938 3,228 3,585 3,831 4,219 4,438 4,703 4,967 ADWEC Energy Demand forecast ( Btu's) Global yearly Consumption BBTu 588, , , ,758 1,045,733 1,161, ,241, ,366, ,437,561 1,523, ,609, Average daily Consumption BBTu 1,613 1,922 2,011 2,608 2,865 3,182 3,391 3,744 3,939 4,174 4,396 Peak Daily Consumption. BBTu 1,932 2,185 2,374 3,070 3,373 3,747 4,004 4,409 4,637 4,915 5,190 After Deducting the Contribution of Nuclear / Renewables to Reducing Fuel Demand Volumetric Gas demand (Mscft) Global yearly Consumption Mscft 563, , , , ,361 1,094,393 1,166,796 1,155,510 1,121,096 1,105,738 1,094,306 Average daily Consumption Mscft 1,543 1,837 1,917 2,470 2,711 2,998 3,197 3,166 3,071 3,029 2,998 Peak Daily Consumption. Mscft 1,848 2,088 2,259 2,913 3,197 3,539 3,774 3,801 3,739 3,737 3,745 ADWEC Energy Demand forecast ( Btu's) Global yearly Consumption BBTu 588, , , ,279 1,033,883 1,143,641 1,219,302 1,207,508 1,171,545 1,155,496 1,143,550 Average daily Consumption BBTu 1,613 1,919 2,003 2,582 2,833 3,133 3,341 3,308 3,210 3,166 3,133 Peak Daily Consumption. BBTu , , , , , , , ,972 3, , ,913 Nuclear / Renewables reduces 2020 Peak Fuel Demand Forecast by around 25% 10

11 Summary High correlation between Electricity Demand and Economic Activity. Relationship not 1:1, depends on economy s composition / development. Abu Dhabi s electricity demand growth has increased in recent years. Abu Dhabi s electricity demand is growing faster than China (%). Electricity demand expected to continue to grow. Global Peak electricity demand to exceed 10,000 MW for first time in Flattening of the demand profile as ADNOC / Industrial demands develop. Electricity Energy Demand (MWh) to grow faster than peak demand (MW). 11

12 Thank You 12