GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH

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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol125, No12 Mar1, ,2 (11, ; 21, ) :, HadCM3 GCM, IPCC, 100,,, % %, A2 ( ) 510 % 1117 % 81 1 %, B2 ( ) 712 % % 216 % : ; ; ; ; : (2006) ( GH G), [1 ],, ( ) [2,3 ], [4,5 ],,, [ 6,7 ] 1996, [ 8 ] 1998, [9 ] 2002 [10 ],, GCM ( ), Thornt hwaite, : ; : : ; ( ) : (19692),,,, 40 E2mail

2 2 : 269, 1500mm 200mm, m 3, m 3, m 3 82 %,,,,,, [11 ],, , m m m 3[12 ] [13,14 ],,,, HadCM3 GCM, 2, ( E) ( R) ( E0 ) ( P),,,, (<) [15 ] ( E/ P, ) ( Schreiber OL dekop Bodyko Turc ),, Zhang 2001, [16 ] E P = 1 + w < 1 + w <+ 1 < : w w 1, (1) (1) ( 1) ( ) ( ), (1), w, ( 2),,,,,, arez [ 17 ], <= E0 F( <) = E P P, Koster Su2 R = P - E (2)

3 < P E0 (3) (4) (2) E = F( <) P + P <F ( <) (3) <= E0 P - E0 P 2 P (4) R = P[1 - F( <) + <F ( <) ] - E0 F ( <) (5) Ri = gr + Ri = gr + ( Pi - gp) [1 - F( <i) + <i F ( <i) ] - ( E0 i - ge0 ) F ( <i) (6) : gr, Pi, gp, F, gi, F, E0, ge0 Zhang, F 3 F ( <) = 2 w < + 1 < w (1 + <+ 1 < ) 2 (7) ( ), Hargreves [18 ], 6 ( 1) 56 ARC/ IN FO GIS Krig2 ing [19 ] ,, , Zhang

4 2 : 271 ( R 2 ) ( C E) 1 6 Tab11 Six sub2regions in the Yellow River Basin GCM HadCM3, IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) A2 B2 [1 ], A2,,, B2,, (km 2 ) IPCC 23 GCM ( ) GCM, GCM, (Downscaling), Delta [20 ], GCM ( ) ( ),, ,, Delta, GCM 56 GIS, ( 2) 2 ( mm) Tab12 Annual mean precipitation under different scenarios for each sub2region ( mm) A B Delta, GCM, GCM GCM,, , GIS ( 3) (6),,

5 ( mm) Tab13 Annual mean potential evaporation under different scenarios for each sub2region ( mm) A B W [16 ],,,,, 4 W, 3000m,,,,, 1175mm, 30, ( 4), (2416 %) (2313 %),,,,, 2162 % 4 Tab14 Optimized plant available coeff icient and relative statistical characteristics W Rma (mm) Rms (mm) Rms/ Rma r CE STDs/ STDa : Rms, Rma, STDs, STDa,,,,, Zhang,

6 2 : HadCM3,, ( 2) A2, B2, , ( ), ( ) HadCM3 ( 3), A2 B2, 5 ( mm) Tab15 Potential changes in runoff for each sub2region and the Yellow River Basin ( mm) A B ,,, A2 2, B2 48 %, 119 %(A2) 016 %(B2), A2, ,, B2, 3 ( ), 3, % 519 % 2212 % ( 5),, A % 3710 % 4318 % B2, % 2212 %, ,, 416 %1 A % 1117 % 811 %, m m m 3 B2 712 % % 216 %, m m m 3

7 mm, m [21 ] 2151mm, m 3 6,, Zhang, HadCM3 GCM, IPCC 2,,, % % A m 3, B m 3 GCM, [22 ],, : [ 1 ] IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC). In : Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al1 (eds1). Contribution of Working Group to t he Third Assessment Report of IPCC1 Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, [ 2 ] Loaiciga H A, Valdes J B, Vogel R, et al1 Global warming and t he hydrologic cycle1 Journal of Hydrology, 1996, 174 : [ 3 ] Arnell N W1 Climate change and global water resource1 Global Environmental Change, 1999, 9 : [ 4 ] Forch G, Garde F, Jensen J1 Climate change and design criteria in water resources management : A regional case study1 At mospheric Research, 1996, 42 : [ 5 ] West macott J R, Burn D H1 Climate change effect s on t he hydrologic regime wit hin t he Churchill2Nelson river ba2 sin1 Journal of Hydrology, 1997, 202 : [ 6 ] Chiew F H, Whetton P H, McMahon T A, et al1 Simulation of t he impact s of climate change on runoff and soil moisture in Australian catchment1 Journal of Hydrology, 1995, 167 : [ 7 ] Kamga F M1 Impact of greenhouse gas induced climate change on t he runoff of t he Upper Banue River ( Came2 roon). Journal of Hydrology, 2001, 252 : [ 8 ],,..,1996,51 ( ) : [ 9 ],..,1998,17 (4) : [ 10 ], Kiyoshi T, Yuzuru M..,2002,22 (2) : [ 11 ].. :,20001 [ 12 ] Xu Z X, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H, et al1 Sustainability analysis for Yellow River water Resource using t he system dynamics approach1 Water Resource Management, 2002, 16 : [ 13 ] Muzik I1 A first2order analysis of t he climate change effect on t he flood frequencies in a subalpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall2runoff model1 Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 267 : [ 14 ] Menzel L, Burger G1 Climate change scenarios and runoff response in t he Mulde catchment (Sout hern Elbe, Ger2 many)1 Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 267 : [15 ] Arora V K1 The use of t he aridity index to assess climate change effect on annual runoff1 Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 265 : [ 16 ] Zhang L, Dawes W R, Walker G R1 Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catch2

8 2 : 275 ment scale1 Water Resource Research, 2001, 37 (3) : [ 17 ] Koster R D, Suarez M J1 A simple framework for examining t he interannual variability of land surface moisture flues1 Journal of Climate, 1999, 12 : [ 18 ] Hargreaves G H1 Defining and using reference evapot ranspiration1 Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, ASCE, 1994, 120 (6) : [ 19 ] Oliver M A, Webster R1 Kriging : a met hod of interpolation for Geographical Information System1 International Journal of Geographic Information Systems, 1990, 4 (4) : [ 20 ] Hay L E, Wilby I L, Leavesley G H1 A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for t hree mountainous basins in t he United States1 Journal of t he American Water Resource Association, 2000, 36 (2) : [ 21 ],,,.. :,19981 [ 22 ] Stott P A, Kettleborough J A1 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty2first century tempera2 ture1 Nature, 2002, 416 (6882) : Analysis on potential effects of global climate change on natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin ZHAN G Guang2hui 1,2 (11 School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing ,China ; 21 Soil and Water Conservation and Combating Desertification, Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Beijing ,China) Abstract :Water scarcity is one of t he most challenging issues in nat ural resources at pres2 ent and in f ut ure, especially in arid and semi2arid regions1 In t he Yellow River Basin, rap2 id growt hs of pop ulation, urbanization, and industrialization have caused ever2increasing co mpetitio n for water1 Any kind of changes in water reso urce caused by glo bal climate change will have significant implicatio ns to such a water shortage basin1 This st udy was conducted to evaluate t he potential effect s of global climate change on t he mean nat ural an2 nual runoff in t he Yellow River Basin under different climatic scenario s of HadCM3 GCM based on t he evaporation ratio f unction of t he aridity index, which considers bot h climate and soil surface characteristics1 Six sub2basins were divided based o n t he runoff p roducing properties1 The mean precipitation and evaporation of of each sub2basin were obtained based on 56 stations wit hin and around the Yellow River Basin1 The f ut ure chan2 ges in climate were t he relative changes bet ween baseline ( ) and different peri2 ods ( , , ) generated by GCM model1 The delta change met hod was to get t he climate change for each station1 Simulations using HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios indicated t hat t he changes in annual runoff varied from region to region wit hin t he range of % to more than 203 %1 In general, the potential changes in annual run2 off decreased f rom east to west1 For t he Yellow River Basin, t he mean annual runoff in2 creased up to 510 %, 1117 %, and 811 % for t he A2 scenario, and t he changes were 712 %, 2311 %, and 216 % for B2 scenario by t he year of 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively1 Key words :climate change ; aridity index ; nat ural runoff ; t he Yellow River Basin