Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay

Transcription

1 India s Future Power System : Challenges and Opportunities Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay Keynote Address at ICCRIP 2016 Plenary Session II organized by NICMAR, Pune - October 22, 2016

2 Are our electricity supply systems sustainable? 2

3 Global Trends Unbounded Growth? GEA Ch 3 3

4 Rockstrom et al, Nature

5 Long term global temperature record Rockstrom et al, Nature

6 Carbon Dioxide Concentrations 6

7 History Of Electric Power Generation Darjeeling Power Station 13 kw Hydro power station Damodar Valley Corporation & Electricity Supply Act formed by Govt. of India Total Installed capacity- 1713MW (15kWh/ capita) JNNSM Kudankulam MW 100 kw DC Power Systems Emambagh Power Station CESC Thermal power station 1,362 MW Tarapur 1 st Nuclear power plant (2x160MW =320MW) Rajastan Atomic Power Plant(300MW +4x220MW) Kaiga Generating Station- (4x220MW ) TATA Power 4000 MW Power plant, Gujarat Edison Westinghouse, Tesla-AC power plant 7

8 Installed Capacity - India 2016 (as on ) Diesel, 919 Renewables (Res.), Waste to Power, 115 Solar Power, 6998 Hydro (Res.), Biomass & Bagasse, 4831 Small Hydro power, 4275 Wind power, Natural Gas, Nuclear, 5780 Coal, MW All India installed capacity Source: GOI, Ministry of Power, India (powermin.nic.in) MW Total Renewable installed capacity Source: MNRE, Govt. of India ( 8

9 Human Development Index (HDI) HDI and Electricity consumption (2013) Netherlands Switzerland Australia United States Russia India Pakistan 2035 India India World Very High HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kwh) 9

10 Renewable share? What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector? How much can renewables and nuclear supply? 10

11 India s INDC #1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030 #2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund) #3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest 11

12 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity 8 Renewable Generation Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

13 Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind % Biomass & Bagasse % Small Hydro % Waste to Energy % 504 Solar PV % 9233 Total % *as on MNRE website: 13

14 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 14

15 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 15

16 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 16

17 3 Rs./kWh 6 Rs./kWh 9 Rs./kWh Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) Bloomberg,

18 Comparison of Supply technologies Generation Technology SIZE RANGE (GW) COSTCrores / MW Rs/ kwh CAPACITY FACTOR AREA (m 2 /GWh) CO 2 Equivalent (gc0 2 /kwh ) WATER l/mwh COAL CCGT SOLAR PV SOLAR THERMAL HYDRO NUCLEAR WIND

19 1 MW Solar Plant IIT Bombay 19

20 Building Integrated PV Entrance canopy of CleanTech Park 2, Singapore Organic PV 12% Roofed walkway with HeliaFilm at the Seletar Airport Singapore 30 m 2 flexible 7% 20

21 21

22 Printed PV VICOSC s new solar cell printer installed at CSIRO 22

23 National Solar Thermal Power Facility Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay Thermal Storage Generato r Turbine Solar Field Thermic Oil Loop Heat Exchanger Condenser CLFR Direct Steam Cooling Water Circuit Pump Expansion Vessel Pump Water/ Steam Loop Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power Plant Simulator snapshot Consortium Members Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site KIE Solatherm 23

24 242 4

25 25 2 5

26 Prototype for 24 x 7 Solar Thermal Power Development of indigenous heliostat Development of improved LFR with steam storage using PCM Development of molten salt loop and stratified storage Solar tower DESE- IIT Bombay Partners: Clique Consultants, Mumbai KGDS Renewable Energy, Coimbatore Sponsored by NETRA NTPC Ltd Temperature C flow condition Flow Flow No Flow No Flow Heat transfer fluid is molten salt 3 2 Molten salt Pump for H.X Superheated steam Molten salt Pump for tower 1 Stratified molten salt Storage Heat Exchanger 4 Water 26

27 TEAM SHUNYA SOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE

28 House in Versailles 26th June, 2014 Team Shunya 70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty 28

29 House assembly process 29

30 Team Shunya s Solar House H Naught 30

31 Total Installed Capacity of Solar and Wind Energy (GW) Existing Capacity (GW) Targets for the Future (GW) China USA India Japan Germany 31

32 Plan Layout 32 32

33 A portion of the ELU map of Ward A of MCGM Corresponding Satellite Imagery for the area from Google Earth Analyzed in QGIS To determine -Building Footprint Ratios - Usable PV Areas For Sample Buildings Source: R. Singh and Banerjee,

34 0:01-1:00 1:01-2:00 2:01-3:00 3:01-4:00 4:01-5:00 5:01-6:00 6:01-7:00 7:01-8:00 8:01-9:00 9:01-10:00 10:01-11:00 11:01-12:00 12:01-13:00 13:01-14:00 14:01-15:00 15:01-16:00 16:01-17:00 17:01-18:00 18:01-19:00 19:01-20:00 20:01-21:00 21:01-22:00 22:01-23:00 23:01-24:00 MUs Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs PV Generation Capacity Factor for Mumbai Axis Tracking Axis Highest eff. 1-Axix Median eff Fixed 19 deg. Annual Average with 1-Axis Tracking 1 19 deg. Fixed Highest eff deg. Fixed Median eff Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: R. Singh and Banerjee,

35 Gujarat Wind 1 st April :47 pm Installed Capacity 3542 MW Gujarat Wind 3 rd March :00 pm 35

36 A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, draft 36

37 Analysis using SAM Intermediate Consumption SAM Final Demand From Decomposition Analysis Scenarios for Sectoral Growth From Optimisation or Manual Endogenous Exo gen ous Δf Constraints Resource, Emissions Multiplier Decomposition Investment Δx = M A *Δf Energy Supply SAM Coefficients New Production New SAM Energy Demand 37

38 Non Fossil Electricity INDC Target Achievable Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability Financing issues Initial capital Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts Storage costs problems with high penetration -Capacity credit? Need for R&D and indigenization Impact on Employment 38

39 End-Note Solar Thermal Facility goal to enable design and development of future indigenous cost effective plants,facility developed, not sure about future usage, Sub-critical technology development efforts,manufacturing capability development Employment -SC coal, Storage Financing the energy sector level playing field for distributed energy Rapid deployment Solar PV need to enhance, indigenous PV industry, emphasis on roof-top PV, system studies, forecasting Variability and Intermittency Hybridisation, Storage, Demand Response Innovation, Technology Development Capital Requirements, Land, water Centralised vs Decentralised 39

40 References GEA, 2012 Chapter 3 : Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. T. Kanitkar et al 2015: Tejal Kanitkar, Banerjee, R. Banerjee and T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries, Volume 26, June 2015, 56 61, June Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, New Delhi, website: Ministry of Power, Government of India, R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015: Singh, R., and Banerjee, R., Estimation of rooftop solar photovoltaic potential of a city, Solar Energy, Vol. 115, , May Rockstrom et al, Nature pdf Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, draft 40

41 Acknowledgment Solar power team+ Team Shunya Pankaj Kumar Rhythm Singh Tejal Kanitkar Jani Das Ajit Paul Abraham Balkrishna Surve Thank you 41