Nitrogen Outlook. Forward-Looking Statements. Fertilizer Industry Roundtable. Presented to:

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1 Presented to: Fertilizer Industry Roundtable By: Michael Bennett, President and CEO Terra Industries Inc. Forward-Looking Statements Information contained in this presentation, other than historical information, may be considered forward-looking. Forward-looking information reflects management's current views of future events and financial performance that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to, the following: changes in financial markets, general economic conditions within the agricultural industry, competitive factors and price changes (principally selling prices of nitrogen and methanol products and natural gas costs), changes in product mix, changes in the seasonality of demand patterns, changes in weather conditions, changes in governmental regulations and other risks described in the "Factors That Affect Operating Results" section of Terra's current annual report. 2

2 U.S. Market Natural gas prices: still among the highest and most volatile in the world. FY 22/23 ending inventories of NH 3, UAN, and urea reached or set record low levels. Unless natural gas prices drop below $3.5 for a consistent period the U.S. will set the floor on NH 3 world prices for the next 2-3 years. U.S. agricultural demand is stable while non-fertilizer nitrogen demand is increasing. Ammonia capacity will continue to diminish in the Gulf Coast area over the next 2-3 years due to natural gas pricing. In FY 23/24, records will be set on NH 3 and urea import levels. 3 U.S. Gas Production is Expected to Increase in 23, Remain Flat in TCF Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy, September 23 4

3 Natural Gas Import Sources 5, 4,5 Projections BCF 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 LNG Imports: 22: 229 BCF 23: 488 BCF 24: 584 BCF 1, LNG Pipeline Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy, September, Near-Term for Natural Gas Supply: Cautious optimism because of the following expectations: Production increases in 3 (result of strong drilling) Net imports (including LNG) increases in 24 Storage adequate at start winter 23 (3 Tcf) Consumption: Little change in totals for 23, 24 Wellhead price: $5 per Mcf in 23, decreasing $1 in 24 Consumer prices: Higher this winter vs. last; expect relief starting in 2Q 24 Caveat: Extremes in market or weather conditions would change this outlook Source: Energy Information Administration 6

4 U.S. Total Natural Gas Dry, Proved Reserves (Bcf) Decade Year- Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9 197s 27,413 28,33 2, s 199,21 21,73 21,512 2, , , , , ,24 167, s 169, ,62 165,15 162, , , , , ,41 167,46 2s 177, ,46 Source: Energy Information Administration 7 Annual Energy 23 with Projections to 225 Lower 48 natural gas reserve additions, (trillion cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration 8

5 Annual Energy 23 With Projections to 225 Lower 48 natural gas production in three cases, (trillion cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration 9 Annual Energy 23 with Projections to 225 Projected lower 48 natural gas wellhead prices in three cases, 21 and 225 (21 dollars per thousand cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration 1

6 Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Imports Projected to Expand through 225 History Projections Net Imports TCF Consumption Production Natural Gas Net Imports, 21, 25 (Trillion Cubic Feet) Source: Energy Information Administration 11 In the Long Run Natural gas reserves in North America are adequate to meet production forecasts. LNG and other natural gas imports will increase. The price fence posts of natural gas economics may not change significantly. LNG projects will compete with chemical projects for global natural gas supplies. North America will continue to lose chemical production. 12

7 Domestic Demand (million short tons) Ammonia Urea UAN 32% Fertilizer Year 23/24 22/ Variance.5.4 Source: Terra estimates 13 Domestic Demand Agricultural 1 Stable planted acres of major N-consuming crops (millions of acres) Corn Wheat Cotton Rice * 25* 27* * Forecasted Source: Doane Ag Services 14

8 Domestic Demand Industrial Industrial Demand is Growing (millions of short tons) Source: Terra estimates NH3 Fertilizer Consumption NH3 Non- Fertilizer Consumption NH3 Direct Application 15 Global Drivers Fertilizer World population is forecasted to increase by 2% per year over the next 1 years. Per capita income growth in developing countries will drive per capita food consumption. Limited real acres to be brought into production, stimulating the need to maximize yields. Industrial Continual demand for upgrading lifestyles will increase need for caprolactam, acrylonitrile, and urea resins. Environmental clean-up across industrialized countries. N.A. natural gas prices moderating to allow reasonable values to maintain growth. 16

9 World Fertilizer Demand: (Million tonnes N) West Europe 1 Central Europe FSU 8 Africa North America 6 Central America South America Middle East 4 South Asia SE Asia 2 East Asia Oceania e 27e Source: British Sulphur Consultants 17 Fertilizer and Technical Demand Forecast: (Thousand tonnes N) West Europe Central Europe 12 FSU 1 8 Africa North America Central America 6 South America 4 2 Middle East South Asia SE Asia East Asia Oceania Source: British Sulphur Consultants 18

10 Ammonia Capacity Forecast by Region (Million product t/y) Change World Total West Europe Central Europe FSU Africa North America Central America South America Middle East South Asia SE Asia East Asia Oceania Source: British Sulphur Consultants 19 World Ammonia Supply/Demand Balance (Million tonnes N) Operating Rate (%) Ammonia Capacity Total Ammonia Requirement Y-on-Y Change in Capacity Y-on-Y Change in Demand Lowest operating rates: Previously FSU Changing to North America and Western Europe Source: British Sulphur Consultants 2

11 Construction of Offshore Manufacturing Facilities 2.5 Additions to Ammonia Export Capacity (million tonnes) Source: Fertecon Ammonia, 22 (3) 21 Construction of Offshore Manufacturing Facilities 5 4 (million tonnes) Early 9s Less from Iraq, Kuwait, Romania; more from FSU Mid 9s More from Middle East, FSU Urea Export Trade More from Romania, FSU, Egypt and Malaysia, and China starts to export More from Argentina & Venezuela More from Middle East 28 onward Possibly more from Latin America Source: Fertecon Urea, 22 (3) 22

12 Conclusions Domestic demand growth will be driven by industrial applications, with agricultural demand stable. Global nitrogen demand should continue to increase about 2%/year. Planned global capacity additions should support but not exceed expected demand growth. North American natural gas supply can support a domestic industry well into the future. LNG will compete with feedstock chemicals for capital and inexpensive natural gas. North American stand-alone ammonia and urea plants directly competing with imports will likely close in the near- to medium-term. Logistically and product-advantaged North American plants likely have a good future. 23