Renewables and Hybrid Systems for Energy Access

Transcription

1 Renewables and Hybrid Systems for Energy Access Sarah Berendes Off-Grid Power Conference at Intersolar Europe 20th of June 2018 Reiner Lemoine Institut

2 The Reiner Lemoine Institut ggmbh (RLI) Overview Not-for-profit research institute 100% owned by Reiner Lemoine Stiftung (RLS) Based in Berlin, established in 2010 Managing director: Dr. Kathrin Goldammer 25 researchers + students Mission Scientific research for an energy transition towards 100 % renewable energies Reiner Lemoine Founder of the Reiner Lemoine Foundation Reiner Lemoine Institut 1

3 Research fields at RLI Transformation of Energy Systems We analyze and optimize future scenarios with an energy supply largely based on renewable energy sources. Off-Grid Systems Off-Grid We support Systems the development of sustainable energy supply for remote regions. Mobility with Renewable Mobility with Energy Renewable Energy We study sustainable mobility concepts through sophisticated implementation and optimization of renewable energy systems. Reiner Lemoine Institut 2

4 Research fields at RLI Transformation of Energy Systems We analyze and optimize future scenarios with an energy supply largely based on renewable energy sources. Off-Grid Systems Off-Grid We support Systems the development of sustainable energy supply for remote regions. Mobility with Renewable Mobility with Energy Renewable Energy We study sustainable mobility concepts through sophisticated implementation and optimization of renewable energy systems. Strategic planning Geographic Information System Energy System Modelling Financial Assessment Market Potential Analysis Reiner Lemoine Institut 3

5 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 4

6 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 5

7 Motivation for improving electricity access Sustainable Development Goal to improve Living conditions Health care Education Economic activities Reiner Lemoine Institut 6

8 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 7

9 Motivation for electrifcation Reiner Lemoine Institut 8

10 Global electrification statistics International Energy Agency. (2017). World Energy Outlook Special Report. Reiner Lemoine Institut 9

11 Motivation for electrifcation Reiner Lemoine Institut 10

12 Motivation for electrifcation Reiner Lemoine Institut 11

13 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 12

14 Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Hybrid Mini-Grids Solar Home Systems Reiner Lemoine Institut Reiner Lemoine Institut 13

15 Hybrid and Renewable Energy Access Trends Pay-as-you-go systems (PAYGO) Decentralization Smart meter GIS based site selection Mini-grids private public partnerships Prosumers Big data Digitalization Reiner Lemoine Institut 14

16 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 15

17 Nigerian Energy Support Program (NESP) Data Population data Polling units School data Power grid data Nightlights Household sizes Load profiles GDP data Other socioeconomic data Technical parameter Cost parameter Power grid data Prioritization criteria Tool / Model Cluster Identification Electricity Demand Projection Simulation of Electrification Options Least-Cost Planning Results per Cluster Location Size Population Status of electrification Peak load Consumption per year Annual load profile in hourly increments Optimal size of minigrid Costs of mini-grid Optimal grid pathway Cost of grid extension Preferable least-cost electrification option Small-scale or Mini-grid or Grid-extension Reiner Lemoine Institut 16

18 Nigerian Energy Support Program (NESP) Data Population data Polling units School data Power grid data Nightlights Household sizes Load profiles GDP data Other socioeconomic data Technical parameter Cost parameter Power grid data Prioritization criteria Tool / Model Cluster Identification Electricity Demand Projection Simulation of Electrification Options Least-Cost Planning Results per Cluster Location Size Population Status of electrification Peak load Consumption per year Annual load profile in hourly increments Optimal size of minigrid Costs of mini-grid Optimal grid pathway Cost of grid extension Preferable least-cost electrification option Small-scale or Mini-grid or Grid-extension Reiner Lemoine Institut 17

19 Step I: Cluster identification - population Population raster data Adding a buffer zone Data Pixels with a population above 7 are depicted in light colors A buffer zone of 500 m is added around each of the consumer clusters Data set compiled by population raster (red), schools (green) and polling units (blue) Merged and dissolved data set cluster Merge and dissolve of input data Processing Calculate population per cluster Scaling according to number of students Scaling according to total population per state Result Consumer cluster data set Reiner Lemoine Institut 18

20 Step II: Electricity demand projection Data Cluster data Load measurements Literature-based data Socio-economic data GIS tools and statistical algorithm calculate individual daily load profile for each cluster Processing Daily load curve is replicated Seasonal load curve is added Random variability is added and load is rescaled Result Final annual profile per cluster Reiner Lemoine Institut 19

21 Step III: Modelling of electrification options Mini-grids Data Solar resource data Economic and technical data (diesel, PV, battery, grid) Load data Processing Dispatch model to supply load every hour of the year by PV, diesel and /or stored electricity Result Techno-economic and environmentally optimized configuration of mini-grid Sizes of PV, diesel, battery, costs of supply, RE-share Reiner Lemoine Institut 20

22 NESP Results: Electrification Plans and Mini-Grid Finder Reiner Lemoine Institut 21

23 Agenda Introduction Status Quo Renewable and Hybrid Solutions Energy Access Market Analysis & Site Selection Conclusion & Outlook Reiner Lemoine Institut 22

24 Electrification Challenges and Opportunities 2030: New Policies Scenario Baseline Scenario of International Energy Agency Number of people without access to electricity projected to fall by 36% ~ 390 Mio. people International Energy Agency. (2017). World Energy Outlook Special Report. Reiner Lemoine Institut 23

25 Electrification Challenges and Opportunities 2030: New Policies Scenario Baseline Scenario of International Energy Agency Number of people without access to electricity projected to fall by 36% ~ 390 Mio. people Still, no energy access for: 8 % of world population ~ 674 Mio. people without access 90 % of which will be in rural areas International Energy Agency. (2017). World Energy Outlook Special Report. Reiner Lemoine Institut 24

26 Looking Forward Off-grid on track! Blechinger et al. (2015): Marktpotentiale von PV- Diesel-Hybrid-Systemen, PV-Symposium, Bad Staffelstein, Reiner Lemoine Institut 25

27 Looking Forward Off-grid on track! 3.5 billion $ from Development Funding Institutions (DFIs) in Q PV sales to non-oecd countries are booming 52 Mio. people targeted for energy access by Enel, Engie, Iberdrola, and Total Reiner Lemoine Institut 26

28 Thank you for your attention! License Except where otherwise noted, this work and its content (texts and illustrations) are licensed under the Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) See license text for further information. Tel: +49 (0) Web: Please quote as: Renewables and Hybrid Systems for Energy Access Reiner Lemoine Institut CC BY 4.0 Reiner Lemoine Institut 27