India Base Case: 2050

Transcription

1 for a Low-Carbon Analysis for India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented By: Vaibhav Chaturvedi Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presentation at ICSS 29 Tokyo, February -7, 29 and Climate Change paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios Three aspects of Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land and biodiversity Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and health Climate change through sustainable development lens For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development (Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 27) Analytical Framework Integrated Modelling Framework India Base Case: 2 DATABASES Socio-Economic, - Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints AIM CGE Model End Use Demand Model ANSWER-MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB) 1

2 India: Demographic Transition Population (Million) Year: 2 Pop: 121 Million % % % 8 Growth Rate 2.1% % Population (million) (Million) 1-6 years Yrs Base Scenario Assumptions Base Scenario 1. GDP Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2-2 Economy: 23 times larger than 2 2. Population 2: 121 Million 2: 193 Million 3. 6 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or CO2) W/m2 Radiative Forcing Savings Rate ?? Labor Force (Million) % % 2.4% 36 Growth Rate % % 1-6 years Yrs Year: 2 Pop: 193 Million Base Year 2=1 2 Annual Growth Rate 2-: 7.3% Annual Growth Rate 2-32: 8% GDP US $/person Per Capita Income Population (Million) Population (million) Energy and Carbon: Base Case Assumptions From 2-2: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth:.9% Increase in 2 over 2 Economy 23 times Population 1.6 times Mtoe 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Other Renewables Nuclear Energy Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass Million Ton CO2 8, 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, Carbon Emissions Modeling Alternate Visions of Low Carbon 1, Annual Improvement From 2-2: Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%) Carbon Intensity: 3.7 (%) Decarbonization of Energy: -.7 (%) Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity Direct Investment in Energy Projects: 21-3: US$ 1.2 Trillion 23-: US$ 2.3 Trillion 2

3 Alternate Visions Stabilization Target and Visions 1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption: ppmv CO2e Concentration o C temperature increase (:) 2. Two Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2 to 2) 1. Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of path 2. Sustainability Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Actions What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments? Vision I: Managing Climate via Path 1. Top-down/Supply-side actions 2. High Carbon Price as main instrument 3. Climate Focused Technology Push Million Ton CO2 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cumulative Mitigation:62.6 Billion Ton CO Carbon Tax $/tco2 Others Device Efficiency Renewable Energy CCS Electricity Fuel Switch Vision II: Managing Climate via Path 1. Low Carbon Price 2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions 3. Behavioural Change 4. Diverse Technology Portfolio Million Ton CO2 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Others CCS Transport Mode Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Electricity (Fuel Switch) Energy Technology Mix in 2 Mtoe 1,2 1, Coal Base Case Dev. + Tax Sustainability Oil Gas Total Energy Demand Base 34 Mtoe C+T 294 Mtoe Sust. 24 Mtoe Hydro Nuclear Share of Renewable Base 24 % C+T 34 % Sust. 47 % Biomass Renewable

4 Energy and Carbon Intensities CO2 Mitigation: Global and India Energy and Carbon Intensities Base CI 7 CO2 Emissions: Global and India 4 CT CI LCS CI 4 6 Base Case assumes global 6 ppmv CO2e stabilization Carbon Intensities (CI) EI (toe/million INR) CI (tco2/million INR) Index 2 = India Base Case Global Base Case India Carbon Tax ( ppmv CO2e) ppmv CO2e Energy Intensities (EI) CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories Price CO2 (US $/tco2) CO2 Price Modeling for Sustainability Vision: Restructure Private and Public Choices and Behavior Focus on Long-term Drivers for Bifurcation Aligning long-term market signals for co-benefits Multiple Instruments Base Case 2 4

5 Urban Choices Choice of Automobiles Rush Hour Traffic in India Rising Incomes and Small Cars Land-use Planning Infrastructures Building Choices Service Networks Tata Nano: $2 QQ: $4 Choice of Transport modes Dematerialization Bus Rapid Transport System 7 1 Steel Cement Steel Technologies for Train Corridors 6 4 Demand (Million Ton) Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand Demand (Trillion Lumen hrs) Demand (Million Ton) Lighting Paper 3 Public Transport: Metro Rail

6 Bahrain Qatar South-Pars Saudi Arabia Yemen Somalia Iran United Arab Emirates Bandar-e-Abbas Oman Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Herat Afghanistan Delaram Kandhar Nangal Ludhiana Bathinda Ambala Quetta Sangrur Multan Pakistan Sonipat Delhi Faridabad Bareilly Nepal Iranshahar Khuzdar Shahjahanpur Auraiya Kanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jhansi Kota Karachi VijaypurGuna Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Nadiad Jhabua Anand Rajkot India Chotila Bharuch Olpad Surat Valsad Dadra Panvel Pune ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri Maldives Solapur Gadag Palmaner Hassan Chennai Mangalore Chittoor Bangalore Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Kochi Kayankulam Tutikorin Kokinada Vijaywada Nellore Sri Lanka Patna Gaya Vishakhapattnam China Bhutan Bangladesh Kolkata Dispur Myanmar (Burma) Indonesia Laos Thailand Malaysia Co-benefits of Alternate Choices Co-benefits of LCS Transition through Million tso Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions Base Case Path + High Carbon Price + Low Carbon Tax Co-benefits of Regional Co-operation MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Legend Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Proposed Gas Basin Ѻ Ѻ Ѻ F F Energy CO 2 Equiv. SO 2 6 Exa Joule.1 Billion Ton Million Ton Total Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1) Conclusions: An Alternate Scenario Storyline and Modeling Framework 6

7 Low Carbon Conclusions: Modeling LCS with Sustainability Aim Low Carbon Drivers Interventions Technological Innovations Social/Institutional Management Aligning Markets Co-benefits Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Sustainability Avoid Lock-ins Modify Preferences Back-casting Targets National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition Moving from Margin to Mainstream vision matters to LCS transition Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable Paradigm Shift towards Co-benefits and Co-operation : Modeling policy myopia, coordination failures, information asymmetry with focus on moving to efficient frontier and pushing the frontier Modeling to gain co-benefits as a positive-sum game (shift modeling focus to cooperation rather than competition) Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future Even under LCS transition through sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower COMMENTS! 7