National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Updates on Carbon Storage Risk Management

Transcription

1 National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Updates on Carbon Storage Risk Management NRAP Technical Director, Presenter: Grant S. Bromhal (NETL) Technical Task Leads: Dylan Harp (LANL); Josh White (LLNL); Erika Gasperikova (LBNL); Diana Bacon (PNNL); Nicolas Huerta (NETL) Lab Leads: Chris Brown (PNNL); Robert Dilmore (NETL); Susan Carroll (LLNL); Curt Oldenburg (LBNL); Rajesh Pawar (LANL) CO 2 CARBON MANAGEMENT WKSP December 3, 2018 Midland, TX

2 National Risk Assessment Partnership Objective: Building tools and improving the science base to address key questions related to environmental impacts from potential release of CO 2 or brine from the storage reservoir, and potential ground-motion impacts due to injection of CO 2 NRAP leverages DOE s capabilities to quantify storage risks amidst system uncertainties, to help remove barriers to full-scale CO 2 storage deployment. Technical Team Stakeholder Group 2

3 NRAP Tool Suite available for download NRAP Toolset: A suite of computational tools to inform decision making for geologic carbon storage sites amidst uncertainties. NRAP Tools Available at: nrap 3

4 Addressing risk and cost barriers NRAP leverages DOE s capabilities to help quantify uncertainties and risks necessary to remove barriers to full-scale CO 2 storage deployment. risk-related site uncertainties and monitoring costs $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Costs PISC monitoring operational permitting site characterization NETL: Grant et al., 2014 (driven by area of review or AoR) 4

5 NRAP s Integrated Assessment Model simulates carbon storage system behavior. Probability of Exceeding Simulates long-term, full-system behavior (reservoir to aquifer/atmosphere) Results can be used to: Compute risk profiles (timedependent probability of leakage and GW impact) Quantitatively estimate storage permanence amidst system uncertainty Identify key drivers of risk in context of uncertainty Leakage Rate > 1 tonne/yr Leakage Rate > tonne/yr NOTE: Hypothetical cases for demonstration purposes only Time, years Ref: Bromhal et al, IEAGHG,

6 Reservoir Evaluation & Visualization (REV) Tool Generates pressure and CO 2 plumes size relationships over time Facilitates determination of Area of Review (AoR) Visualizes reservoir behavior probabilistically Uses pressure and saturation values from reservoir simulation(s) - modular design accommodates different file types Outputs plume sizes through time and pressure values in specified grid blocks at each time step. Functions for a single realization or accepts multiple simulations and outputs probabilistic values for defined thresholds. NRAP POC: Seth King (NETL, AECOM) 6

7 NRAP analyzed key risk-based metrics for the reservoir component. Size of CO 2 plume injection Rate of growth for early phase Rate of growth for long-term phase Plume radius at end of injection Size of pressure plume Maximum size of plume Various pressure thresholds, relevant to: Brine rise Fault-slip criteria Pressure at a location Maximum pressure increase Bromhal et al., 2014 Size of CO 2 Plume Size of Pressure Plume Pressure at at a Location 7

8 Wellbore Leakage Analysis Tool (WLAT) addresses vertical migration. Evaluates existing wells for leakage potential Explores leakage response as a function of well disposition Evaluates the implications of permeable overburden zones Models migration of brine and/or CO 2 outside of storage reservoir Inputs of reservoir pressures and saturations Predicts flowrate into overlying reservoir and groundwater aquifer Incorporates chemistry to identify flowrate changes as a function of time NRAP POC: Nik Huerta (NETL) 8

9 Number of wells Well Leakage Scenarios in WLAT Cemented Wellbore with Thief Zone Well Leakage Scenarios in WLAT Well Permeability (m 2 ) Open Wellbore (Pan et al., 2011) (Jordan et al., 2015; Harp, et al., 2016) Brine leakage through Fractured Cement Multi-Segment Well (Huerta, et al., 2016) (Nordbotten, et al., 2004) 9

10 Aquifer Impact Model (AIM) Rapidly estimates volume of aquifer impacted by a leak Distinguishes between CO 2 and brine leaks Used to determine impact of threshold criteria. Inputs migration rate and concentrations from wellbore or similar models Includes two different end member aquifer types Incorporates flow and chemistry Metrics include: ph, TDS, metals concentrations, organics concentrations NRAP POC: Diana Bacon (PNNL) 10

11 New Integrated Assessment Model capabilities Leaky wellbore Leakage scenario Shallow aquifer Seal Probabilistic leakage risk calculations Reservoir Parametric study Risk assessment update using monitoring data New ROMs focus on predicting above zone monitoring interval (AZMI) behavior 11 11

12 Temperature anomaly (ºC) IAM developed for risk management Seal integrity Wellbore integrity Leak mitigation Integrated risk assessment and risk management Enabling a Tiered AoR approach Unreacted cement Fracture Flow (a) Mechanical deformation (b) Precipitation 12

13 Modeling of monitoring capabilities Phase I Integrated Assessment Model IAM-CS Phase II Multiphysics models Monitoring data Input for geophysical modeling Inversion output 13 13

14 Designing better monitoring networks Probability of detection using monitoring response DREAM v2 ERT module Beta released Considers both remote and point source monitoring parameters in a novel way More flexible user input including compatibility with OpenIAM output Proposed monitoring well locations Two-stage monitoring design solution 14

15 Induced Seismicity Management Short-term seismic forecasting and ground motion estimation tools available Studying approaches to actively manage induced seismicity Generating a protocol for induced seismicity for carbon storage in 2019 Studied impact of effectiveness of different techniques (e.g. pressure control) for managing seismicity at problematic sites. 15

16 Tools development & release Annual tool user forum (2 nd in August 2018) As new versions of existing tools become available: Post to tools web site regular users Conferences, papers, tech lines As new tools are developed: Same as new versions, plus Webinar and tutorials posted Periodic (~annually) updated release for all new tools and versions since previous coordinated release 16

17 Thank You! Questions and Comments? 17