SPSC 2011 and 2012 Study Requests to WECC/TEPPC: Update for January 2013

Transcription

1 SPSC 2011 and 2012 Study Requests to WECC/TEPPC: Update for January 2013 # SPSC Request & Description TEPPC Case Study Program application 1 1. Reference Case: Utility IRPs and Plans (10- year) 2 2A. Scenario DSM-1: West- Wide High DSM/DG Scenario (10- year) 3 3. Alternative California Import and Westwide REC Trading Policy Scenarios Assume utility plans/irps, and current state, provincial and federal policies (i.e. adjusted loads) Adjust loads assuming aggressive DSM and DG policies across Western Interconnection. 3 part request: (a) instate generation only; (b) increase CA imports to 45-50% of net short; (c) unbundled REC to meet RPS policy 10-Year Study Requests in PC TEPPC Incorporate information from the LRS data submittals, most recent utility IRPs, resource plans, and performance standards for emissions; Apply load forecasts based on BA submittals and considering additional impacts of state/provincial and federal policies on energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation (DG) 2022 PC4 From 2022 PC1, develop high DSM/DG case per SPSC 2011 study request and evaluate transmission needs 2022 PC2 From 2022 PC1, revise CA net-short assumption to include largely in-state renewable resources 2022 PC3 From 2022 PC1, revise CA net-short assumption to include 45-50% out-of-state resources 4 4. Lower Renewable Generation Future renewable development falls short of RPS levels by 50% 2022 PC1B From 2022 PC1, replace incremental renewable resources with a resource portfolio based on the assumed acceptance of unbundled renewable energy credits (RECs) to meet RPS targets PC16 RPS Off-Ramp Case. Used as part of the 2022 Stress Test series of cases. Limit 2022 renewable generation to WECC class: (0) existing; (1) under Halted due to complications of modeling RECs 1

2 # SPSC Request & Alternative Southwest Solar Development Scenarios 6 6. Plant Retirements in the Low Carbon Cases 7 7. Increased Utilization of the Existing Grid Scenario 8 8. Variable Generation Integration Analysis Description TEPPC Case Study Program application High level of solar development in SW under following: (a) concentrating SW solar becomes competitive to wind, (b) very competitive to wind; (c) more expensive than wind. Attain low carbon 17% reduction by 2020 with carbon adder and coal plant announced retirements identified by: (i) state/provincial policy/regulation, and (ii) utility announcements or plans Model actions to increase efficiency of the grid such as: (a) EIM; (b) Joint Initiatives; (c) synchrophasors; (d) volt var optimization and conservation voltage reduction Develop screening tool to evaluate the technical feasibility and cost of integrating variable generation with assistance from NREL construction; (2) additions with regulatory approval/review, interconnection agreement, or expected on-line within 7 years. Remove Common Case renewables in class (3) meet NERC criteria for Future Planned or Other Resources; (4) meet NERC criteria for Conceptual Resources 2022 PC3B-1 From 2022 PC3, model increased concentration of solar resources in the Southwest, at least commensurate with concentration of wind resources PC5 To achieve carbon reduction targets of the benchmarks of 17% by 2020, build upon the 2020 carbon reduction case by applying coal plant retirements identified by: (i) state/provincial policy or regulation; and (ii) utility announcements or plans PC8-2 From 2022 PC1, model the possible impact synchrophasors and other advanced grid technologies may have on increasing the utilization of the existing grid Develop a screening tool to evaluate the technical feasibility and cost of integrating generation assumed in cases with substantial variable generation. Dropped, lower priority and did not pursue NREL technical assistance Halted, obsolete since 2022 incorporated coal retirements Halted, no data to model how synchrophasors and others impact grid use Halted, not able to develop viable methodology 2

3 # SPSC Request & Description TEPPC Case Study Program application 1 Stress Test of Transmission Assumptions Proposed 5 cases designed to stress the grid assuming CCTA additions by 2022: (a) lower loads; (b) 10% higher loads; (c) shift 2000 MW from NW to solar in SW; (d) shift 2000 MW wind in NW to WY/MT; (e) Federal RPS increases renewable energy by 23,000 GWh or 15.7%. 10-Year Study Requests in 2012 PC1-5 High-load Sensitivity 10% increase in WECC annual energy and peak (2.2% CAGR) PC4 of 2011 Low-load Sensitivity Program PC8 California Stress Test Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in CA and no change to 2022 PC9 PC10 PC11 PC12 PC13 PC14 PC15 Arizona Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in AZ and no change to 2022 New Mexico Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in NM and no change to 2022 Wyoming Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in WY and no change to 2022 Montana Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in MT and no change to 2022 Washington Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in WA and no change to 2022 Oregon Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in OR and no change to 2022 Nevada/Utah Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in NV and UT, and no change to 2022 PC16 RPS Off Ramp Stress Test PC17 Colorado Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in CO and no change to 2022 PC18 Idaho Stress Test -- Add 6,000 GWh of renewable resources in ID and no change to

4 # SPSC Request & 2 Reliability Check on the 2022 Description TEPPC Case Study Program application Pursue reliability analysis of 2022 through WECC s TSS group or other methods if necessary Have reliability check performed on TEPPC study case in Request submitted to TSS and creating power flow analysis 3 Model the 2022 with Real World Limitations 4 Economic Evaluation of New Relocation Cases Improve modeling to reflect real world constraints such as: (a) improve hurdle rates and expand number of hurdle zones; (b) force BAs to balance own area; (c) limit BAs to dispatch generation to itself or neighboring BA; (d) limit location of new generation to areas with physical transfer capacity Endorsed past resource relocation cases and proposed analysis of shifting generation to meet loads in 3 load centers: (a) Phoenix; -- shift 12,000 GWh of AZ solar Arizona to three alternative areas: (i) NM wind, (ii) WY wind, and (iii) NV solar. (b) Portland/Seattle -- shift 2,000 MW of Columbia Gorge wind to: (i) MT wind, and (ii) WY wind. (c) Northern CA shift 6,000 GWh CA renewables to: (i) Columbia Gorge wind; (ii) MT and WY wind, and (iii) NV geothermal energy.. PC43 PC19 PC20 PC21 PC22 PC23 Place incremental generation in areas where there is sufficient physical transfer capacity to deliver resources for all hours of year. Iterate to areas where ATC is available. California Resource Option From PC1-5, add with individual transmission projects Southwest Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add Centennial West and others Wyoming Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add Zephyr; TransWest Express; Chugwater Express; Bonanza Express; High Plains Express and WY-CO Intertie Montana Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add Grasslands Northern Plains Tie; Chinook; Path 8 Upgrade; MSTI; SWIP N. East of Broadview Upgrade Northwest Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add High Priority 4

5 # SPSC Request & Description TEPPC Case Study Program application PC24 PC25 PC26 PC27 PC28 PC29 Selkirk Bell-Ashe; Nicola Chief Joe; Selkirk Ashe DC; Selkirk Buckley DC. Nevada/Utah Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add 230/345 kv from N. NV to N. CA; 500 kv from N.NV to S. CA; Solar Express; West Desert Express Colorado Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add High Plains Express and others Wyoming Firmed Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add 12,400 GWh of renewable energy and gas fired generation located in WY in combination with transmission projects from PC21: Northwest Firmed Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add 12,400 GWh of renewable energy and use modeling techniques to firm with BC hydro and associated transmission projects in PC23 Southwest Firmed Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add 12,400 GWh of renewable energy and pumped storage projects and associated transmission. Colorado Firmed Resource Option -- From PC1-5, add 12,400 GWh of renewable energy and gas fired generation located in CO, 5

6 # SPSC Request & Description TEPPC Case Study Program application 20-Year Reference Case 20-Year Scenario DSM-1: West- Wide High DSM/DG 20-Year Scenario DSM-2: Geographically Targeted High DSM/DG Low Carbon Case (Reiterated from 2010) Breakthrough Technology Cases (Reiterated from 2010) Assume utility plans/irps, and current state, provincial and federal policies (i.e. adjusted loads) Extend 10-year High DSM/DG case out an additional 10 years Identify most congested paths in 20- year Reference Case and use targeted DSM/DG to mitigate congestion Attain carbon reduction of 42% below 2005 level by 2030 With NREL assistance, SPSC agreed to pursue following breakthrough cases: (a) solar PV; (b) offshore wind; (c) enhanced geothermal 20-Year Study Requests 2032 Reference Case -- Characteristics that would be expected in 2032 if the assumptions that drove the 2022 were to continue for an additional 10 years From 2032 Reference Case, develop high DSM/DG case per SPSC 2011 study request and evaluate transmission needs Develop a series of studies in which High DSM/DG resources are placed only in those specific regions where it would likely alleviate transmission congestion identified within the 2032 Reference Case To achieve carbon reduction targets of 42% by 2030, apply coat plant retirements identified by: 1) state/provincial policy or regulation; and 2) utility announcements or plans; and plants expected to face significant upgrades to meet air quality regulations for conventional pollutants being promulgated by the EPA. Evaluate how electrification in other sectors of the economy increase electric loads. Evaluate the impacts of breakthrough technologies on transmission congestion; including deep water offshore wind; enhanced geothermal, and low cost solar PV TBD TBD 6