Calculator. DRECP Stakeholder Meeting. Sylvia Bender. /

Transcription

1 Acreage Scenari Calculatr DRECP Stakehlder Meeting Ontari, Califrnia May 17, 2011 Sylvia Bender Electricity Supply Analysis Divisin / David Vidaver /

2 Calculatr Purpse Estimate t future reductins in GHG emissins frm electricity sectr t meet AB 32 gals Estimate different renewable futures t achieve reductins Estimate acreage needed fr renewable generatin t realize reductins NOT t frecast r prescribe a future 2

3 Calculatr l Excel spreadsheet, designed t be flexible, user-defined, in tw sectins: (1) Calculating Future Need fr Renewable Energy (2) Calculating Needed Acreage Three illustrative future scenaris: Reference Case, High and Lw Bkend Cases 3

4 (1) Calculating at Future Need Key Demand-Side Factrs and Plicies RPS ranges 57% t 87% acrss cases Demand grwth frm ecnmic/demgraphic factrs and reduced by energy efficiency prgrams Demand grwth frm electrificatin f the transprtatin sectr Full electric and hybrid vehicles Prt electrificatin, high-speed rail 4

5 (1) Calculating Future Need Cmbined heat and pwer (cgeneratin) A share may be cnsumed n-site, the remainder exprted t the transmissin grid fr utility purchase On-site cnsumptin is deducted frm demand fr RPS purpses and may be exempt frm electricity sectr carbn cap Custmer- side distributed generatin (small rftp slar) Deducted d frm demand d fr RPS purpses 5

6 (1) Calculating Future Need Zer Carbn Generatin Resurces Existing renewables Large hydr Nuclear Other ut-f-state zer carbn resurces Allwable Carbn Resurces* Cmbined heat and pwer energy exprted t grid Natural gas-fired generatin * Quantity allwed a functin f GHG reductin target, allwed ffsets, thermal efficiency 6

7 (2) Calculating Needed Acreage Renewable Technlgies Central statin slar thermal Central statin slar PV Utility-side distributed generatin (large rftp t 20MW grund-munted slar) Wind Bimass Gethermal Custmer-side distributed generatin (rftp slar up t 1.5 MW) Specifies MW f each technlgy in the scenari 7

8 (2) Calculating Needed Acreage Characteristics f technlgies vary with chice f technlgy Capacity factr (annual utput per MW f nameplate capacity) MW (nameplate)/acre Share f renewable energy that can cme frm utf-state 8

9 Reference Case Assumptins Demand grws 15%/ 1.5%/year; EE reduces by 081% 0.81% 5.2 millin EVs and hybrid; high speed rail 8% ffsets = 53,000 GWh gas-fired generatin allwed New renewable energy needed = 200,000 GWh Large prtin f existing renewables still perating; all nuclear still perating CHP = 6,500 MW; half used n-site Custmer DG = 3,000 MW new abve 2030 CSI gal 7,400 Btu/kWh gas perfrmance 25% un-delivered d renewables frm ut f state t 9

10 Technlgy (MW) Reference Case (67% RPS) Central Statin Slar Thermal 9,000 Central Statin PV 9,000 Wind 10, Gethermal 3,000 Bimass 3,000 Utility-Side Distributed ib t Slar 9,000 Custmer-Side Distributed Slar* 6,000 Ttal New Distributed Generatin* 12,000 CHP 6,500 New Renewable Energy Needed (GWh) 200,169 Share Obtained 99.2% Acreage 571,676 *3,000 MW f custmer-side distributed slar is existing small rftp slar frm Califrnia Slar Initiative that is already embedded in Energy Cmmissin demand frecast 10

11 Lw Acreage Assumptins Reduced demand grwth at 1.35%/year; 2.6 millin EVs and hybrids; n high speed rail 10% ffsets = 57,900 GWh gas-fired generatin New renewable energy needed = 140,000 GWh Zer carbn resurces (inc. nuclear plants) and CHP perating same as Reference case Custmer DG = 6,000 MW new abve 2030 CSI gal (reduces ther renewable e e resurces by 5,300 GWh) Imprved gas efficiency (allw 3,000 GWh mre gas-fired generatin) Un-delivered d renewables still 25% 11

12 Technlgy (MW) Lw Acreage Case (57% RPS) Central Statin Slar Thermal 3,500 Central Statin PV 3,500 Wind 4,500 Gethermal 2,750 Bimass 2,750 Utility-Side Distributed Slar 9,000 Custmer-Side Distributed Slar* 9,000 Ttal New Distributed Generatin* 15,000 CHP 6,500 New Renewable Energy Needed (GWh) 138,016 Share Obtained 102.1% 1% Acreage 256,201 *3,000 MW f custmer-side distributed slar is existing small rftp slar frm Califrnia Slar Initiative that is already embedded in Energy Cmmissin demand frecast 12

13 High Acreage Assumptins EE impacts reduced t 0.65%/year 26 millin EVs and hybrids and high speed rail New renewable energy needed = 360,00 GWh 5% ffsets = 7,100 GWh less gas-fired generatin Nuclear facilities nt available = need 42,000 GWh CHP = 8,500 MW needed t meet; 70% exprted; (increases need fr renewables by 3,900 GWh) Custmer DG = same as Lw acreage case 7,800 Btu/kWh gas perfrmance (reduces gas-fired generatin by 2,700 GWh) Still 25% un-delivered d renewables 13

14 High Acreage Case Technlgy (MW) (87% RPS) Central Statin Slar Thermal 15,000 Central Statin PV 15,000 Wind 22,000 Gethermal 5,000 Bimass 5,000 Utility-Side Distributed Slar 18,000 Custmer-Side Distributed Slar* 9,000 Ttal New Distributed Generatin* 24,000 CHP 8,500 New Renewable Energy Needed (GWh) 357,876 Share Obtained 99.2% Acreage 1,166,127 *3,000 MW f custmer-side distributed slar is existing small rftp slar frm Califrnia Slar Initiative that is already embedded d in Energy Cmmissin i demand d frecast 14

15 Key Drivers in Scenaris Lad grwth assumptins matter mst in need fr new in-state renewables: Electrificatin Ecnmic/demgraphic grwth Impact f energy efficiency n demand Presence r absence f nuclear plants = 42,000 GWh baselad energy Plicy change t shift targeted GHG reductins in electric sectr by 10 percentage pints wuld add anther 26,000 GWh Plicy change t zer new ut-f-state renewables wuld add 42, ,000 GWh acrss cases 15

16 Clsing Thughts ht Calculatr estimates acreage fr renewables within cnfines f a defined cap n carbn emissins in electricity sectr Tremendus uncertainty lking ut 40 years - three hypthetical scenaris here Tl fr thinking abut a cmplex future, nt fr prducing the answer Calculatr has n gegraphic cmpnent System peratinal uncertainties nt addressed 16