The Role of Space Community in the support of GFCS with the development of an Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space

Transcription

1 The Role of Space Community in the support of GFCS with the development of an Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space Dr Wenjian Zhang, D/OBS, WMO Robert Husband, EUMETSAT John Bates, CEOS-CGMS WG Climate, NOAA

2 Sixteenth WMO Congress Resolution 19 (Cg-XVI, 2011) DEVELOPMENT OF AN SPACE ARCHITECTURE FOR CLIMATE MONITORING Challenges and Opportunities 1: Promotion role of GFCS for Space Architecture Development Considering: The underpinning role that observations will play in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), Decides that an architecture for climate monitoring from space should be developed, to provide a framework for the sustained & coordinated monitoring of the Earth s climate from space; Invites CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO & WCRP to collaborate with the WMO Space Programme on the development Agriculture Health Water Disaster Risk Reduction

3 Why do we need a Climate Monitoring Architecture? To provide a structured and comprehensive view as to what Climate Data Records are available from Earth Observation satellites To create the conditions for delivering further Climate Data Records through best use of existing data holdings To optimise the planning of future satellite missions and constellations in order to expand existing and planned Climate Data Records, in terms of both coverage and record length, and address possible gaps

4 Opportunity: Global promotion through GFCS to convince governments for enhanced and sustained space observations 50+ years development of WMO Space-based observations Excerpt from President J.F. Kennedy s address to the UN General Assembly, 25 September 1961, he said: Here, with new scientific tools like modern computers and satellites, the atmospheric sciences require worldwide observations and, hence, international cooperation -lead to World Weather Watch Program decision at WMO Cg-4 (1963) Space Architecture for Climate needs greater governmental & Intl Org support

5 WMO is coordinating New baseline with three orbital planes in the 2025 Vision for WMO Space Global Observing System 气象灾害监测预警 - 张文建

6 Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO, WCRP, GFCS, all end users CEOS-CGMS-WMO ad hoc group on Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space, Chair: Mark Dowell A report: Strategy Towards an Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space The strategy presents a proposed logical architecture that represents a first step in the development of a physical architecture. Outline of the report Executive Summary and recommendations Introduction, Objectives & Targets Climate Monitoring Principles, Requirements & Guidelines State of the Art Beyond research to operations Climate Architecture definition Mechanisms for Interaction Roadmap for way forward Recommendations

7 GFCS Use-driven Requirements to Space Agencies is Through CEOS-CGMS WGClimate

8 Earth Environment I1 An end-to-end Architecture Design for monitoring climate for both long-term trend & extreme events in real time Sense Earth Environment Observations A1 Create and Maintain Short/Medium Term Climate Data Records A2 Create and Maintain Longterm Climate Data Records A3 Create and Maintain Higher-Level Climate Information (e.g. CDR analysis or modelbased reanalysis) A8 Interim Climate Data Records ECVs Sensing Climate Record Creation Applications Climate Data Records Climate Information Records Operational Climate Monitoring A4 Long-term Climate Variability & Climate Change Analysis A7 Reports Decision-Making Seasonal outlook Decision-Making Decisions (including adaptation Attribution & O1of events mitigation policy and planning) A5 Climate indices Instrument level Observation level Product level Service level

9 Essential Climate Variable - Precipitation Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) GPCP is an international, inter-agency effort to provide CDR-quality global precipitation analyses at monthly, pentad and daily time scales. Climatology ( ) GPCP data used in > 1500 journal articles mm/d GPCP CDR Objectives 1) To successfully update, streamline and integrate the GPCP production code for automated sustained production, 2) Develop an interim CDR for GPCP monthly for operational climate analysis. 3) Derive sector-focused climate information records driven by decision making needs 9

10 Interim CDR GPCP Monthly Analysis for July 2014 for Routine Monitoring mm/day An Interim CDR of monthly, global precipitation (within 10 days of the end of the month) is being produced 10

11 Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations Operational + R&D missions; Space + Surface Research + Operations Longest surface T instruments measurements (>140 years) Against 30 years average ( )

12 The Space Architecture will Integrate operational and R&D satellites building synergies for enhanced climate observing capabilities: Example: Geostationary pollution monitoring - health TEMPO Sentinel-4 GEMS Courtesy Jhoon Kim, Andreas Richter Spatial coverage of funded spectrometers Policy-relevant science and environmental services enabled by common observations

13 GCOS Sponsors & Partners of observing components GCOS assesses progress and requirements, advises on implementation, and reports to UNFCCC on the status of observing systems for climate.

14 Challenges and Opportunities 3: Document broader requirements Services Requirements: The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Implementation Plan (WMO extraordinary Session, October 2012) adds another dimension to the requirements directly link to the user s application areas: agriculture and food security, water resources, health and disaster risk reduction Assessment Requirements: The IPCC s 4th Assessment Report (2007) underscores the urgent need for critical climate data, and an international architecture supporting them, to observe and monitor the global water cycle and the global carbon cycle. Climate Modelling Requirements: Model initialisation and definition of boundary conditions Model development and validation Observing and Data Requirements Climate Observations:Essential Climate Variables (GCOS ECV Inventory) defined by Global Climate Observing System (GCOS-82, 2003), Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) It is clear that the requirements extending beyond the capabilities of one-time research missions and operational satellite systems in existence today.

15 WMO Standard Practice: Rolling Review of Requirements - to identify new observing requirements & gaps of new initiatives (GFCS, Architecture.) Requirements Requirements Requirements Requirements Derived variables Performances Gap Analysis on observations Statement of Guidance and Implementation Plan for observing capabilities (Actions, Recommendations) Space and ground-based capabilities Members organizations and programmes 15

16 Gaps and deficiencies identified through the GFCS IP WMO OMM Inadequate atmospheric observations, limited space and surface-based remote sensing capabilities, and the absence of operational monitoring of some important air quality, radiation, etc ; Inadequate observational coverage of important oceanographic variables (ocean currents, mass flux, ocean salinity, and sea ice parameters); Inadequate terrestrial observing networks (river discharge, ground water, lake levels, permafrost, glaciers and ice caps) and absence of designated networks for soil moisture, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Fraction of Absorbed Photo-synthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) and above ground biomass Weather Climate Water 16

17 World Requirements: Climate Conferences Global Climate Observing System Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) World Climate Conferences 1990 WCRP World Climate Research Programme. SCIENCE 2000 GCOS Global Climate Observing System. OBSERVATIONS 2009 GFCS- Global Framework for Climate Services. SERVICES These programmes report directly to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and there Parties are expected to support them. GCOS (2010) Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC. 1 October GCOS-138, 2014 Geneva, 180 pp 17

18 Observations for Climate Change Mitigation & for adaptation to climate variability & change GCOS, in collaboration with the Land Cover Project Office from the Global Observation for Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD), has organized an international workshop to consider the climate observation requirements to support actions for climate change mitigation. Focus on Land Use (Agriculture) and Forest Workshop Representatives website: from UNFCCC, FAO, ICRAF, ESA, IPCC, etc. php?name=observationsformitigation

19 Inventory Questionnaire Joint activity CEOS, CGMS and WMO call issued in May 2012 Questionnaire form through a web interface 45 total questions based on 5 topics (General, Usage, Stewardship, Properties, Access) Responses requested at the dataset level Addresses both existing/past missions and future/planned mission in two separate questionnaires Each single entry takes on average 25 minutes to complete ~220 dataset entries as of March 2013 with good representation across domains

20 Inventory Statistics ECV Timelines 20 WGClimate Meeting, Geneva, February 2013

21 Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Margaret Chan (L) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud (R) --Pose with the Atlas of Health And Climate, during a press conference on the extraordinary session of World Meteorological Congress, 2012 in Geneva. --With droughts, floods and hurricanes like the one bearing down on New York affecting the health of millions of people each year, WMO and WHO health agencies presented an overview of how climate data can help protect public health.

22 Service requirements: Content, Presentation, Delivery media, Timeliness, Continuity, User support, Training,.. Product requirements: Type (numerical, graphical, binary, alert), Algorithm, Spatial/temporal resolution, Quality control Technical challenges : from user requirements into missions/instruments/observations/products/info USERS needs Services info needs USERS satisfaction ECV Products and climate extremes Observational requirements: Geophysical variable, Unit, Domain, Spatial resolution, Temporal resolution, Uncertainty Specifications: Instrument type, Orbit, Scanning mode, Spectral bands, Channel width, SNR, Observation & Monitoring Instruments Datasets Source, Format, Projection, Segmentation, Quality flag, Compression, Metadata

23 Challenges and Opportunities 4: Turning Observations into Knowledge Climate Products & Information

24 Challenges and Opportunities: from observations to infomation Long-term quality controled records for climate monitoring & services Longest surfac Trend = 0.17 K Dec -1 Combined Linear (Combined)

25 Challenges and Opportunities 5: Free and Open data Policy Key Role of Space Community in support of GFCS support global Free and Open data Policy Framework: WMO OMM GFCS needs Governments and Space Agencies support for free and open exchange of climate-relevant surface and space data, products & info.

26 Challenges and Opportunities 6: Realize Benefits through applications - User engagement Understanding Analysis Observations Consequences Monitoring Initialization Validation Models Predictions The Architecture with enhanced observations will motivate advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

27 --Number of satellite-borne instruments data were assimilated routinely by ECMWF --Expect enhanced satellite data utilization for improved climate prediction performance for Climate Services

28 Road Map How & Who Define, Validate and Obtain Consensus on Overall Approach (including logical representation) Short-term (within 2 years) Describe Current and Planned Implementation Arrangements (ECV-by- ECV) within an Inventory Current status Medium-term (2-4 years) Use the Inventory & GFCS to Develop a Coordinated Action Plan to Address Identified Gaps/Shortfalls

29 Summary The initiative to develop a climate monitoring architecture has attracted widespread support from EO space agencies, with consensus achieved on the overall approach now in the implementation phase. built-in compliance assessment to requirements, traceability, flexibility, consistency The architecture will provide the foundation for implementing the Observations and Monitoring pillar of GFCS, thus sustaining the provision of observations for climate services.

30 Thank You

31 WMO Space Programme contribution at both ends of the chain Space Segment analysis building on OSCAR/Space Identify CGMS missions with potential to deliver FCDRs (with ET/SAT) Encourage CGMS commitment to deliver and sustain such FCDRs Highlight gaps & prompt actions Usage scenarios in GFCS priority areas Identify end user requirements for climate services in key areas Infer the product requirements and specifications (with ET-SUP) Highlight gaps and prompt actions