Outlook for electricity trading in Brazil

Transcription

1 Outlook for electricity trading in Brazil The situation in the Brazilian Grid Bernardo Afonso Salomão de Alvarenga Chief Trading Officer May /XX

2 TheBrazilianGrid Market outlook (Average MW) Average MW Actual (up to April 2008) Forecast Average annual growth rates (%) 2/19

3 TheBrazilianGrid Installed capacity, December 20 (MW) Power (MW) % S/SE/ C-W Hydro 85% 92% N/NE Thermal Brazil Power (MW) Percentage South/Southeast/Center-West Hydro 57,117-83% Thermal 11,323-17% Total 68, % North / Northeast Hydro 19,560-92% Thermal 1,792-8% Total 21, % All Brazil - total grid Hydro 76,677-85% Thermal 13,115-15% Total 89, % Itaipu: takes into consideration only the Brazilian share of output (7,000 MW). International : excludes all (Argentina, Uruguai, Venezuela). 3/19

4 TheBrazilianGrid Installed capacity, December 2012 (MW) Power (MW) Power (MW) Percentage % 81% 77% S/SE/C-W N / NE Brazil Hydro Thermal South/Southeast/Center-West Hydro 61,141-81% Thermo 14,086-19% Total 75, % North and Northeast Hydro 20,382-77% Thermo 6,094-23% Total 26, % All Brazil - total grid Hydro 81,523-80% Thermo 20,180-20% Total 101, % Itaipu: takes into consideration only the Brazilian share of output (7,000 MW). International : excludes all (Argentina, Uruguai, Venezuela). 4/19

5 The Brazilian grid s capacity to serve Storage Southeastern Region (%) Maximum energy stored in the Southeastern System = 189,969 Mwmonth Actual (to April 2008) Risk aversion curve for the Southeast 5/19

6 The Brazilian grid s capacity to serve Settlement price for differences ( PLD ) R$/MWh Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 PLD Average Médio PLD Mensal month Annual Média Anual average 6/19

7 The Brazilian grid s capacity to serve Annual risk of energy deficit (%) Analysis made in Feb SE/C-With S NE N Risks for deficits above 5% of the market 7/19

8 The Brazilian grid s capacity to serve Annual risks of energy deficit (%) Analysis made in May SE/C-W S NE N Risks for deficits above 5% of the market 8/19

9 The Brazilian grid Structural energy balance (average MW) 70,000 60,000 50,000 Average MW 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Resources 55,168 57,057 60,178 62,098 63,447 Load 52,471 56,196 58,964 61,634 64,165 Balance 2,623 1,408 1, (%) 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 1.4% -0.4% Does not take into account reduced output at thermal plants and in natural gas supply 9/19

10 The question of Natural Gas: Natural Gas thermal plants in supply Structural energy balance (average MW) 60,000 Average MW 40,000 20, Thermal (NG) 6,178 6,417 6,491 6,525 6,529 Others 48,990 50,640 53,687 55,573 56,918 Load 52,471 56,196 58,964 61,634 64,165 Balance 2,623 1,408 1, (%) 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 1.4% -0.4% Does not take into account reduced output at thermal plants and in natural gas supply 10/19

11 The question of Natural Gas: consumption (thousand m 3 /day) Consumption of natural gas in Brazil Growth in the period: Automotive 32.15% p.a. Thermal 18.19% p.a. Res./Commerc./Other 11.59% Industrial 10.13% p.a. Industrial Automotive Thermal Res/Commerc./Other Sales of the distributors up to Nov. 20 Source: IBP. 11/19

12 The question of Natural Gas: Supply vs. Demand Consumption of natural gas in Brazil in 20 million m 3 /day Import GSA Bolivia SUPPLY DEMAND Import BG Bolivia Import Cuiabá Bolivia Avarage Flow Jan-Dec 20 INDUSTRIAL VNG THERMAL Import Argentina Availability REFIN/CHEM OTHERS Production Reinjection Burning Research NG liquids (C2+) Sources: ANP, Abegas, ONS. 12/19

13 The question of Natural Gas: Supply vs. Demand forecast to 2012 million m 3 /day LNG Bolivia NG Brazil NG Thermal Industrial Other uses (*) Considers only maximum dispatch of the thermal plants Other uses: vehicle, residential/commercial. refineries, fertilization plants. Source: Petrobras Business Plan. 13/19

14 The question of Natural Gas: Petrobrás Self Production until 2012 million m 3 /day 10 out of 20 projects are recent discoveries (after 2002) Associated gas Non-associated gas Source: Petrobras Business Plan. 14/19

15 The Brazilian grid Structural energy balance (average MW) 70,000 60,000 Average MW 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Resources 55,168 57,057 60,178 62,098 63,447 Load 52,471 56,196 58,964 61,634 64,165 Balance 2,623 1,408 1, (%) 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 1.4% -0.4% Does not take into account reduced output at thermal plants and in natural gas supply 15/19

16 The Brazilian grid Structural energy balance (average MW) 65,000 60,000 Average MW 55,000 50,000 45, Resources 55,168 57,057 60,178 62,098 63,447 Load 52,471 56,196 58,964 61,634 64,165 Balance 2,623 1,408 1, (%) 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 1.4% -0.4% Does not take into account reduced output at thermal plants and in natural gas supply 16/19

17 The Brazilian grid Structural energy balance (average MW) 65,000 60,000 Average MW 55,000 50,000 45, Resources 51,728 54,747 58,983 61,874 61,997 Load 52,471 56,196 58,964 61,634 64,165 Balance , ,168 (%) -1.4% -2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -3.4% Takes into account reduction of output in the thermal plants and natural gas in accordance with the Petrobras Commitment Undertaking. 17/19

18 The Brazilian grid Structural energy balance (average MW) Electricity market Additional needs Average GW In operation + tendered SANTO ANTONIO JIRAU Takes into account reduction of output in the thermal plants and natural gas in accordance with the Petrobras Commitment Undertaking. Sources: ONS/CCEE May 2008 study; EPE PDE, ; and Cemig Research. 18/19

19 Investor relations Tel: (55-31) Fax: (55-31) Referências para esta apresentação: MME/EPE, ANEEL, ONS, Seminários e Conferências. 19/19