Clean Energy Project Exchange

Transcription

1 2008 ACEEE/CEE Market Transformation Symposium Clean Energy Project Exchange Roger Duncan General Manager Austin Energy 721 Barton Springs Rd. - Rm. 573 Austin, TX Roger.Duncan@austinenergy.com (512)

2 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Austin Energy: Reducing the Carbon Footprint Energy Conservation Renewables Green Buildings and Updating Building Codes Austin Climate Protection Plan 2

3 What energy projects will provide the largest reduction in CO 2 emissions in the shortest time at the least cost? 3

4 This project exchange will assist utilities, businesses, and policy- makers in choosing energy projects that will reduce carbon quickly at the lowest cost. 4

5 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Utilities, Businesses, and Governments Must Make Energy Project Choices Should a utility build a wind farm, a nuclear power plant, or invest in DSM programs? Should a corporate board of directors allocate resources to green power programs, on-site renewable energy, or energy efficiency? And what kind of energy efficiency program is best suited? Should a local government provide incentives for building codes or energy efficient transportation? 5

6 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Prioritizing is Crucial The difference between good and optimal in prioritizing energy projects could mean the difference in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars Choosing the most effective projects early will mean the difference between saving or losing decades in stabilizing carbon concentrations in the atmosphere Must balance several constraints including costs, deliverability, and rapid changes in technology 6

7 Primary Technologies DSM Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Ocean 7

8 Allocating Energy Reducing Measures CFLs Conventional Hybrid Autos Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles 8 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

9 Example Target Markets Seattle and Cleveland 9 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

10 Option 1: Split measures evenly between markets Measures Target Markets CFLs Seattle Hybrids PHEVs Cleveland 10 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

11 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Option 2: Split measures to curb the most carbon emissions in each market Measures Target Markets CFLs Seattle Hybrids PHEVs Cleveland 11

12 Clean Energy Priorities Fuel Mix May Vary Due to: Renewable Inventory of Region Supply Availability Public Consensus Water Resources Time Constraints 12 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

13 Prioritizing your Energy: Criteria for Comparison If a central purpose is to reduce carbon, then a key calculation is the carbon return on investment (CROI) CROI how much carbon is removed from (or not placed in) the atmosphere for each dollar spent 13

14 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Simple Version of CROI X Y K X = current amount of carbon produced from a certain fuel/technology Y = carbon expected to be produced from the cleaner fuel/technology K = cost of the energy project 14

15 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Clean Energy Priority Tool: Energy matrix lists costs used for comparison and generating technologies Generating CROII $/ Fuel Cost LCOE Capacity Technology kw Factor Levelized Cost Of Electricity amount invested to cover operating Coal costs plus annualized capital costs of operating a generating facility Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar 15

16 Further examples of criteria for comparison Generating Technology Time to Construct Deliver -ability Water Usage Environ. Impacts Reg./Tax Incentives Coal - Pulverized Coal Natural - Gas Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Nuclear - IGCC w Carbon Capture Solar and Sequestration Wind - Concentrated Solar Solar Power - Photovoltaic * Thin film 16 * Silicon Roger Duncan 3/13/08

17 Generating Technology PC Coal Data is updatable and CROII transparent $/kw Nuclear 1,849 1,849 2 to 1,510 3 Fuel Cost 1.54/MMBtu 1 LCOE Capacity Factor Wind 29% Conc. Solar 1 EIA, Coal Production in the U.S.-An Historical Overview October Steve Specker, EPRI, Generation Technologies in a Carbon-Constrained Constrained World 29% 4 to 44% (2010) 5 5 EIA, Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2006, March 2006, p.135. Natural Gas 6.39 /k Wh Gas Turbine World, January-February 2007, P. 54 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

18 Prioritizing the Criteria Generating Technology CROII $/kw Fuel Cost LCOE Wind 29% 1 Nuclear Conc. Solar 1,849 to 1,510-1,840 Capacity Factor 29% - 44% (by 2010) 3 Natural 2 Gas PC Coal 1.54/ MMBtu 6.39 / 5.99 /kwh 18 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

19 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Similar Working Projects Power Across Texas University of Texas at Austin, Center for International Energy and a Environmental Policy Michael Webber, Ph.D. - Associate Director, Program Development Texas Online Energy Tool The Millennium Institute T21 USA Model Collaboration with Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas-USA and State University of New York s College of Environmental Science and Forestry A quantitative tool for comprehensive policy planning - understand energy issues and to show how those issues relate to society, economy and a the environment The Carbon Buster s Home Energy Handbook,, Godo Stoyke Carbon Busters Personal strategy for slowing climate change and saving money 19

20 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Versions Available Version 1 1 Data Base Version 2 Interactive Version 3 Scenario Analysis Version 4 Clean Energy Project Exchange 20

21 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Utility Tool Allow utility to quickly prioritize energy choices based on specific criteria and actual bids Rank generating technologies by CROI or other preferred criteria Communicate actual data, new technology investments and carbon reduction achieved 21

22 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Business Tool Provide a cost/benefit tool to assist in energy efficiency measures and carbon reducing solutions Compare feasibility of different solutions for energy needs Provide current legislation affecting businesses and relevant carbon regulations 22

23 Roger Duncan 3/13/08 Government Tool Provide up-to to-date information on energy regulations and legislation with special attention on carbon Identify financial incentives and limitations for different technologies Highlight market barriers to technologies and carbon reducing potential Provide a framework to enhance energy related policy decision-making 23

24 Next Steps Austin Energy is currently working to establish Version 1.0 and the subsequent versions will evolve accordingly 24 Roger Duncan 3/13/08

25 Discussion 25