GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION. April 2017

Transcription

1 GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION April 2017 Chairman of the Advisory Board More info, contact Guillaume Fouché

2 PARIS Picture: UNFCCC 1

3 PARIS The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet. Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG Together we have opened the door to a sustainable and climate-safe future for all. Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC This is a turning point. This gives us the best possible shot to save the one planet we got. Barack Obama, US President The Paris Agreement has been an unprecedented historic success. Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy It is a sign of hope. It can have a positive influence on the living conditions of billions of people. Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany Today's agreement signals nothing less than a renaissance for humankind. Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly 2

4 GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GTCO2) Pre-COP21 pledges Historical emissions Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3

5 GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GTCO2) Pre-COP21 pledges INDC trajectory 45 Historical emissions Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4

6 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 1975 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 5

7 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1980 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 1980 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 6

8 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1985 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 1985 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 7

9 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1990 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 1990 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 8

10 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1995 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 1995 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 9

11 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 2000 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 10

12 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2005 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 2005 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 11

13 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2010 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 2010 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 12

14 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2015 (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas 2015 Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 13

15 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas BNEF Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 14

16 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE) Renewable energy 10,000 5,000 Nuclear 1,000 Natural gas BNEF 2040 IEA 450ppm Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 15

17 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE) Renewable energy Illustrative Paris scenario before 2100 Nuclear 10,000 5,000 1,000 Natural gas BNEF 2040 IEA 450ppm Coal Oil Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 16

18 ENERGY MIRACLE We need an energy miracle Bill Gates February 2016 Picture: Bloomberg 17

19 SOLAR MIRACLE? $/W (DC) 50 Costs down 150 x MW Installed 100,000 10,000 1, Cumulative installations up 115,000x Volume installed (MW) - RH scale Crystalline silicon PV module price (2015 $/W(DC)) - LH scale Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 18

20 RENEWABLES SHARE OF TOTAL SYSTEM GENERATION, (% OF SYSTEM TOTAL) SOLAR WIND 25.0% 12.5% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.05% 0.0% 0.03% 0.0% 0.01% 0.0% 0.0% Seven doublings 25.0% 12.5% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 15 years 15 years 0.1% Four doublings Note: Y-axes are logarithmic with base 2 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, UNEP 19

21 CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS LONGER BLADES LOW-WIND TURBINES AT HIGH-WIND SITES SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES HIGHER TOWERS Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas 20

22 GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS, (%) 60% 50% 299MW 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada Note: Averages are capacity-weighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 21

23 2011 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV US$ 6.2 cents/kwh US$ 17 cents/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons 22

24 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power January US$ 3.0 c/kwh Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Chile Solarpack Corporation August US$ 2.91 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons 23

25 WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W) ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST* ($/MWH) , LEARNING RATE 24.3% 512 LEARNING RATE 19% SOLAR COSTS HAVE FALLEN >99% SINCE % since WIND COSTS HAVE FALLEN 60% SINCE ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. Current price is $0.4/W Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%. *Data is for Northern Europe. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 24

26 PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED) Solar PV (unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction) 160 Onshore Wind (unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction) % - 50% 80-35% - 60% KEY : tariffs : non-tariff price signals : auctions EMEA Other LatAm Brazil India South Africa Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 25

27 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT & CAPACITY ADDITIONS 500 Spend more, get more Spend the same, get more 160GW GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn Forecast $175bn $205bn $207bn GW $128bn 40 $62bn $88bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 26

28 INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, ($BN) Renewables excluding large hydro 150 Fossil fuels Large hydro Nuclear Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP 27

29 RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT BY REGION ($BN) China United States Europe '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 ASOC (excl. China & India) AMER (excl. US & Brazil) Middle East & Africa '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 Brazil India '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15' '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15' '04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16 Note: New investment value adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 28

30 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION, 10 YEARS TO 2015 (%) Denmark 69% 61% Canada Canada 76% 9% 67% US 13% 14% 16% UK 26% 5% Spain 37% 21% France 17% 12% Germany 36% 12% Italy 40% 20% 16% 10% China China 22% Japan Japan 11% 25% 15% 0% Lowest 50% Mid 100% Highest 89% Brazil 71% Brazil 79% S. South Africa Africa 2% 1% 3% India India 6% 17% 18% Australia 16% 10% 17% Note: Includes hydro Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29

31 US COAL CONSUMPTION VS GAS AND RENEWABLES, PRIMARY ENERGY (MTOE/YR) Gas Thermal coal Renewables inc. hyrdo Source: EIA 30

32 MATCHING SUPPLY AND DEMAND IS DONE DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THE TIMESCALE Years to Months Days to minutes Seconds to minutes I. PLANNING FOR EXTREMES III. CONTROLLING FREQUENCY Demand II. CONTINUOUS BALANCING Variable supply 31

33 New technologies Incumbent technologies BALANCING THE GRID UHV Supergrid (GEIDCO) Interconnectors Demand response Electric vehicles 2016 Future Years to weeks Weeks to hours Hours to seconds Coal-fired generation Gas-fired generation Nuclear Reservoir hydro Pumped hydro Interconnection Renewable generation Software solutions Electrochemical storage Thermal storage Mechanical storage Chemical storage Power to gas Ammonium H2 Biomass /biogas Flow batteries Biofuel Smart Grid and Gridchain Batteries Heating/cooling solutions Gravity systems Solar CSP Flywheels Compressed air Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32

34 ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT Image: Tesla 33

35 ELECTRIC VEHICLES CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE WORLDWIDE, billion ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN USE WORLDWIDE, END million (to scale) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 34

36 BNEF BATTERY PRICE LEARNING RATE ($ PER KWH) $/kwh 10,000 LEARNING RATE 19% 1, EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PRICES HAVE FALLEN 73% since ,000 10, ,000 Cumulative production (MWh) Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average for the year. Prices are nominal. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35

37 BEV MODEL AVAILABILITY, Tesla Model X Audi Q6 E-tron SUVs Land Rover Defender M-B B Class Toyota RAV4 Jaguar I-Pace VW Budd-e Mitsubishi ex M-B EQ Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans Mahindra everito Honda Clarity CODA EV Kia Ray Hyundai BlueOn M-B E-Cell Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf BMW mini e Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-miev Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV200 Hyundai Ioniq Pugeot Partner BYD e6 JAC iev4 Smith Edison M-B SLS edrive Renault Fluence VW e-up Qianto Q50 ChangAn Eado M-B Vito Renault Kangoo BMW i3 VW e-golf Venturi Fetish Mullen 700e BYD e5 Renault Zoe ZE Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 Tesla Roadster Chevy Bolt Tesla Model S GLM G4 Aston Martin RaridE Exagon Furtive Audi R8 E-tron Tesla Model 3 VW ID Porsche E-sport Note: Not exhaustive; excludes Indian and Chinese models Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;Images: various 36

38 SHANGHAI, CHINA Photo: 37

39 HONG KONG Photo: Greenpacks 38

40 DELHI Picture: Wikimedia Commons 39

41 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO Photo: Shinil GCP 40

42 SAO PAULO, BRAZIL Photo: Thomas Hobbs 41

43 LOS ANGELES, USA Photo: UCLA 42

44 PARIS, FRANCE Photo: D NNI$/Creative Commons 43

45 LONDON, UK Photo: HHRCA 44

46 GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE AND EV ANNUAL SALES, (M VEHICLES SOLD PER YEAR, %) m vehicles sold per year By 2040, up to 50% of new cars will be EVs % of new car sales 100% 90% 80% 70% m vehicles sold per year Shared vehicle Scenario % of new car sales % % 80% 80 70% 60 60% 50% 40 40% 20 30% 20% 0 10% $20 oil Scenario ICE + HEV BEV PHEV EV % of new sales 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook Low Oil Price scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025). High scenario assumes greater vehicle utilisation. Low scenario assumes $20 per barrel oil price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 45

47 CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN) Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment calculation methodology Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 46

48 CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN) Average $300 billion Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment calculation methodology Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 47

49 ELECTRIFICATION OF GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND STRUCTURE OF FINAL ENERGY (BN TOE) Heat Nontransport fuels Transport fuels Electricity % 15% 10% 5% ELECTRICITY SHARE OF FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (%) +0.25% per year On current trends, the world economy will be 100% electric by the year % Note: TOE is tonnes of oil equivalent Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 48

50 PERFORMANCE OF LARGEST EU COAL-BASED EMITTERS, (MT) Source: Sandbag 49

51 THERMAL COAL CONSUMED IN POWER GENERATION (MT/YR) WORLD EXCLUDING ASIA ASIA 3,500 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1, Note: Assumes coal quality of 6,000kcal/tonne Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 50

52 PRESIDENT TRUMP Image: Bloomberg 51

53 PESSIMISM This is the way the world ends. This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper. TS Eliot The Hollow Men,

54 PESSIMISM Go ahead and play the blues then, if it makes you happy Homer Simpson Philosopher 53

55 UK COAL CONSUMPTION (MT/YR) BNEF NEO 2016 forecast Source: BEIS, Prof. David Rutledge, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 54

56 CHOICE Our energy future is not fate, but choice Amory Lovins Founder, Rocky Mountain Institute 55

57 OPTIMISM I'm not sure whether the optimists or the pessimists are right, but I do know this: it is the optimists who will get something done. Craig Venter 56

58 Thanks! MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system More info, contact Guillaume Fouché