Climate Change and the Future Nordic Energy System

Transcription

1 Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources Reykjavik, Iceland, 7 June 2006 Climate Change and the Future Nordic Energy System with focus on the system Linköping Sweden Mikael Togeby Ea E A/S Copenhagen Denmark

2 Direct and in-direct impact of climate change on the system Climate change Direct (extreme events) In-direct In-direct Impact on economic activities Changes in average values for temperature, wind and precipitation. Changed probability for extreme event: Storms, droughts, floods, extreme cold or hot temperatures. Changes in policy due to climate change Will only have marginal impact compared to e.g. the economical and technological development Could have serious impact on the system Can have very important impact, e.g. by ing strong reduction on CO2 emissions

3 Energy system development Outline of possible long-term developments for the Nordic system due to economic, technical and political changes Stationary system focus on the system 2050 Three scenarios A medium-path scenario: a continuation of current trends modest economic growth balanced policy

4 Interplay among components in the system Hydro Distributed Solar Nordic Heating Cooling

5 and supply Hydro Distributed increases due to industrialization and enhanced standard of living in many countries. Nordic Increased and limited cheap Solar supplies make carriers more expensive. Fossil-fuel use decreases. Heating Cooling Better conditions for biomass production helps enhancing biofuel supply.

6 Energy conversion Hydro Solar power decreases: Distributed low efficiency, increasing fossil-fuel costs, expensive Renewable increases: Nordic biofuel, wind power, solar underground New technologies emerge: solar cells, fuel cells Carbon dioxide capture at power Heating Cooling plants and storage in oceans or Hydrogen an carrier : gasification of biomass / electrolysis e.g. vehicle fuel

7 Market, Nordic power grids Hydro more linked to continental Europe. A common Long distance power transmission between Solar countries increases. Power electronics, Flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS), superconducting cables flow controlled systematically: allows a high share of wind power. Efficient Distributed combined heat and power () production Nordic : common in all Nordic countries? Heating Cooling

8 Energy Nordic Hydro consumption per capita now much higher than EU average Solar and its seasonal variations. Increasing temperatures reduce space- Cooling in summer increases, but less Distributed Heating Nordic Cooling

9 Energy conservation Energy is used Hydro more efficiently. Heat can be recovered for repeated use in industry and for. used Solar for heat production can be replaced by fuels, district or solar. Heat-driven cooling Industrial consumption Waste decreases heat to continental level. Distributed Heating Nordic Cooling

10 Distributed, Hydro Distributed Nordic Solar Communication technology helps consumers change their. Heating Cooling Small-scale (and heat) production, e.g. fuel cells Delay to reduce peak Automatic control to avoid expensive periods Activate small-scale at high prices Dynamic nodal Waste pricing heat Places have different prices due to local and supply.

11 System relationships More expensive carriers make renewable Hydro and conservation more profitable. Solar operation cost Nordic use increases operation and CO 2 emissions from the power plants with highest More connection to continental power system raises Nordic prices to continental level. Distributed Reduces consumption Heating Nordic Now: coal-fired In the future: natural-gas-fired condensing plants Cooling

12 Impact of -side measures Hydro reduce primary Distributed supply but not the benefit. Switching from for reduces seasonal Solar variations of consumption. Switching from to district increases the heat sink for production. Heating Nordic Cooling

13 Balancing wind power Hydro Distributed Possible wind power Solar capacity Interplay between - fluctuating wind power - hydropower dams - and in the same and neighbouring areas - transmission capacities can help absorbing wind variations. Heating Nordic Cooling

14 Security of supply Hydro Solar To secure supply Distributed Heating Many sources and technologies Nordic Preference for local resources, often renewable Cooling

15 Alternative scenarios An extreme free scenario High economic growth Little environmental regulation High Large power plants: fossil fuel condensing power new large hydroelectric and nuclear plants An environmental scenario Low : high efficiency less heavy industry Firm policy instruments: renewable reduced CO 2 emissions. Distributed Low- buildings internal DC micro grids Domestic resources security of supply Robustness - share of hydropower free : low environmental: high

16 Conclusion The direct impacts of climate change have less influence on the system than other transitions. Events occur that we cannot even imagine. Hydro Distributed Solar Nordic Heating Cooling