Benjamin K. Sovacool, Ph.D Professor of Energy Policy Director of the Sussex Energy Group Director of the Center on Innovation and Energy Demand

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1 Contestation and Contingency in the Nordic low-carbon energy transition Invited Seminar to the Energy Policy Group at the University of Exeter, United Kingdom, May 10, 2016 Benjamin K. Sovacool, Ph.D Professor of Energy Policy Director of the Sussex Energy Group Director of the Center on Innovation and Energy Demand

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5 Primary data sources:

6 The need for better energy systems

7 A diversification challenge Amount = 5,600 mtoe Amount = 22,000 TWh Amount = 89 mbd Global Final Energy Consumption, 2012 Renewable energy is largely the other!

8 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent A geopolitical problem Shale Gas Uranium Coal Natural Gas Oil Major Global Energy Reserves for 16 Leading Energy Nations, 2012

9 A resource depletion problem Proven Reserves Coal 930,400 million short tons Natural 6,189 trillion Gas Petrole um Uraniu m cubic feet 1317 billion barrels 4,743,000 tons (at $130/kgU) Current Production 6,807 million short tons trillion cubic feet billion barrels Life Expectancy (Years) 0% Annual Production Growth Rate 1.6% Production Growth Rate ,260 tons Life Expectancy of Proven Fossil Fuel and Uranium Resources, % Production Growth Rate 9

10 An environmental challenge

11 Are there any young children in the room?

12 An environmental challenge

13 Externality Impacts, Units of Analysis, and Proxies Environmental impact Proxy Unit(s) of measurement Climate change Electricity consumption (kwh), kilometers travelled (by weight and distance, differentiated by sea and land) Tons of carbon dioxide emissions Air pollution (smog and acid rain) Waste (leachate and disamenity affects) Electricity consumption (kwh), kilometers travelled (by weight and distance, differentiated by sea and land) Solid waste and electronic waste (e-waste) Tons of nitrogen oxide (NO x ), particulate matter (PM ), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions Tons of waste send to landfill, for incineration, and disposal costs of e-waste Source: Sovacool, BK, MAM Perea, AV Matamoros, and P Enevoldsen. Valuing the externalities of wind energy: Assessing the environmental profit and loss of wind turbines in Northern Europe, Wind Energy (in press, 2016)

14 Summary of Environmental Losses Associated with Three Wind Turbine Types Offshore concrete CO2 948,694 Air Pollution 9,138 Waste 135,262 Total 1,093,094 Offshore steel CO2 424,490 Air Pollution 9,134 Waste 61,492 Total 495,116 Onshore CO2 640,086 Air Pollution 7,956 Waste 95,119 Total 743,161

15 Distribution of Monetized Externalities by Type of Environmental Loss

16 Distribution of Monetized Externalities by Geographic Location

17 Distribution of Monetized Externalities by Component Type

18 The Nordic perspective

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20 Nordic Energy Flows

21 Primary energy production in Nordic countries; share of production by fuel, 2011

22 The four pillars of the Nordic energy transition

23 #1: Renewable electricity (but mostly bio-energy and hydro)

24 Primary renewable energy production in the Nordic countries, 2011

25 Nordic total primary energy supply in the Carbon-Neutral Scenario

26 The import of a diversified, services-oriented portfolio

27 #2: Energy efficiency in buildings

28 Energy intensity in the Nordic region, and globally

29 Final energy consumption per capita, Nordic countries and OECD average

30 Buildings need energy efficiency improvements

31 Buildings need energy efficiency improvements how?

32 Buildings need energy efficiency improvements how?

33 Buildings need energy efficiency improvements how?

34 Net zero homes and energy efficiency

35 The first ZERO+ house in Denmark to produce more energy than it consumes.

36 #3: Transportation (hydrogen, biofuels, and EVs)

37 Nordic energy use in transport

38 2050 energy use in transport

39 EV share of total Nordic (passenger) car sales

40 Sønderborg s leadership

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42 #4: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

43 Carbon capture and storage is key Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents the most important option among new technologies for reducing industrial CO2 emissions after Currently, great uncertainties exist as to how to deploy CCS, and therefore both CCS demonstrations and closer Nordic collaboration would be needed to overcome the barriers.

44 CCS utilization in industry by 2050

45 Five implications for British analysts

46 #1: The transition won t be rapid

47 #1: The transition won t be rapid It will still take decades (until 2050) for the Nordic region These are courtiers are already anomalies Relatively small Wealthy Strong environmental ethic High fuel and electricity prices

48 #2: Even for Nordic countries, the transition is contingent It will depend on technological breakthroughs, but these are not necessarily obvious: Bioenergy Hydro CCS EVs (conventional) Nuclear power Energy efficiency Energy storage Political goals may not be achieved due to lack of technological innovation Sketch of the Norwegian hydropower system Sira-Kvina

49 and, even political goals can rapidly change ( allies vs. interests )

50 #3: The transition is socio-technical It will involve not only changing technical systems, but also social attitudes the human software along with the technological hardware, the notion of a seamless web from Thomas P. Hughes

51 #4: If true, we need a better understanding of energy behavior and consumption, or EUED

52 User motivations are complex and heterogamous Stern, Paul C. and Elliot Aronson, Energy Use: The Human Dimension (New York: Freeman & Company, 1984). The investor regards energy as a cost that is carefully considered in making purchases such as equipment and capital, and views energy technologies as durable ways to recover costs over their useful life. The consumer thinks of their homes and automobiles as consumer goods that provide pleasures and necessities. The conformer sees energy technologies as a way to belong to a particular social group or attain status. The crusader sees energy use as an ethical issue and conserves energy as an expression of self-reliance and environmental stewardship. The problem avoider treats energy as no more than a potential source of annoyance or inconvenience, doing nothing about it until technologies break down and services cease.

53 User motivations are complex and heterogamous

54 User motivations are complex and heterogamous

55 User motivations are complex and heterogamous

56 User motivations are complex and heterogamous

57 User motivations are complex and heterogamous (1) User-producers create new technical and organizational solutions (2) User-intermediaries shape the needs and desires of users as well as products, infrastructures, and regulatory frameworks (3) User-citizens engage in politics of regime shift lobbying for a particular niche (4) User-legitimators shape the values and worldview of niche actors (5) User-consumers appropriate products and services and thus producing meaning and purpose, and testing new systems

58 #5: The transition won t be universally replicated The blueprint will most certainly not be adopted globally United States and its partisan politics? China and its energy scramble? India and its energy poverty? It only gets us partway where we need to go Phases of decarbonization (from IIASA)

59 In sum, even the Nordic energy transition perhaps the exemplar for the world is politically contested and technologically contingent

60 Contact Information Benjamin K. Sovacool, Ph.D Professor of Energy Policy University of Sussex Jubilee Building, Room 367 Falmer, East Sussex, BN1 9SL UK: International: