Envision. Tillamook County Coastal Hazards Project

Transcription

1 Envision Scenario modeling and analysis tool for capturing and integrating multiple drivers of landscape change Policy-centric: Directly captures policy alternatives related to land management Spatially explicit, integrating multiple landscape features influencing landscape change Can report multiple landscape performance metrics; visualization of results

2 A few prior applications Water Futures in the Willamette Basin consider population growth and climate change Agricultural Systems Management under changing climate in Eastern Canada Growth/Fire/Habitat Management under changing climate in the southern Willamette Valley Forests-People-Fire: forest management, fire, and the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) under changing climate in Central Oregon Puget Sound futures - Nearshore management, growth and development in the Puget Sound, WA Skagit 2060 Planning for change in Skagit County, WA

3 ENVISION Tillamook County Coastal Hazards Project Envision Skagit 2060 Data Sources Landscape Data Land Use/Land Cover Zoning Habitat Many more Policy Set(s) Working with County Staff, Tech Committees to define Landscape Change Models Population Growth Based on OFM Estimates for County Development Evaluative Models/Metrics Habitat Stream IBI Water Quality/Loading Hydrologic Vulnerabilty Impervious Surfaces Vehicle Miles Traveled/ Employment Residential Land Supply Timber Extraction Resource Lands Protection

4 Scenarios Skagit County, WA Plan Trend current plans are captured as closely as possible and played forward Ecosystem emphasizes compact development patterns, protection of ecological resources through a variety of mechanisms Ag/Forestry emphasizes protection of resource lands for continued production Development emphasizes dispersed development through creation of rural villages Preferred a composite of the best of each of the above scenarios, determined after intensive stakeholder review

5 Land Use/Land Cover

6 Zoning

7 Floodplain

8 Existing UGBs (2010)

9 Existing Dwelling Units

10 Skagit Results

11 2060 New Dwellings Plan Trend Ag/Forestry Ecosystem Development

12 Anacortes Tillamook County Coastal Hazards Project Villages 19% 11% 0% Bayview Scenario Sedro Wooley t Vernon 42% 30% Villages 0% Sedro Wooley Plan Trend Ag/Forestry Burlington Con/Ly/LaC/ Ham/Sw Anacortes 9% Bayview 5% Burlington Con/Ly/La C/ Ham/Sw Mt Vernon 36% Villages 5% Sedro Woolley 1 Where Does New Growth Occur? - Preferred 6% Anacortes 12% Bayview 5% Burlington 9% 13% Villages 0% Sedro Wooley 10% Mt Vernon 41% 36% Villages 23% Ecosystem Development Anacortes 11% Bayview Burlington 10% Con/Ly/LaC / Ham/Sw Anacortes Bayview 4% 3% Burlington 6% Con/Ly/La C/ Ham/Sw Mt Vernon 20% Sedro Wooley 4% City Mt Vernon 43% Preference Factor City Anacortes 0.60 Lyman 0.70 Bayview 0.90 Mount Vernon 1.00 Burlington 0.75 Sedro Woolley 1.00 Concrete 0.30 Swinomish 0.25 Hamilton 2.50 Village 0.20 La Connor Preference Factor Village Swinomish Mount Vernon Lyman La Connor Sedro Wooley Con/Ly/LaC/ Ham/Sw Anacortes Bayview Burlington Concrete Hamilton

13 Decimal Percent Tillamook County Coastal Hazards Project Percent of Growth Within Major UGAs Plan Trend Ag/Forestry Eco Development Preferred Year

14 Acres Tillamook County Coastal Hazards Project Wetlands (ac) Plan Trend Ag/Forestry Eco Development Preferred Year

15 Tillamook County?

16 Group Exercise II Take a somewhat deeper dive into: Issues related to coastal hazards facing your communities (e.g. flooding of coastal communities) Identifying endpoints that can be used to identify preferable outcomes (e.g. value of inundated structures ) Identifying strategies that should be considered for achieving those outcomes (e.g. restrict additional development in flood-prone areas)

17 Issue I: Erosion Coastal armouring (rip rap/seawall) Beach nourishment (natural littoral cell changes/ sediment transport) Natural adaptation Issue II: Flooding Infrastructure/roads/bridges Water and sewage Ecology Issue III: Economic Vitality Tourism New development Issue IV: Planning Measures to limit co2 Storm shelters Land use