IMAGE scenario work. Detlef van Vuuren

Transcription

1 IMAGE scenario work Detlef van Vuuren 1

2 IMAGE greenhouse gas stabilisation scenario project (2007) 4 SRES scenarios differentiated in: Population Income /equity Technology assumptions (energy, land) Fuel and food preferences Trade assumptions (fuels, food) Taxes [governance, development focus] Exploration of different stabilisation levels Van Vuuren 2 (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations August 5, 2011 at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp

3 Emissions 40 a) B2 Baseline and mitigation profiles 40 b) B2 Baseline and other baselines Emissions (GtC-eq) B2 Baseline CO 2 Non-CO CO 2 -eq 550 CO 2 -eq IMAGE 2.3 B2 IMAGE 2.3 A1b IMAGE 2.3 B1 Colour area indicates EMF21 range 450 CO 2 -eq Van Vuuren 3 (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations August 5, 2011 at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp

4 Land A1 B1 A2 B2 Strengers, B. et al. (2004). The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as 4 August 5, 2011 simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model GeoJournal 61 (4), pp

5 Bio-energy potential Energy production potention (EJ/yr) High estimate Low estimate More than 20 $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ Less than 12$/GJ 2050 transport energy demand Year 2000 A B A Van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E. and Van Vliet, J. (2009). Bio-energy potential under various natural constraints. 5 August 5, 2011 Energy policy

6 Costs as function of baseline Climate policy here introduced in the form of a carbon tax. But in reality there might be a relationship between the SRES scenario and the policy-instruments (or SSP and the CPA) Van Vuuren 6 (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations August 5, 2011 at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp

7 Importance of uncertainty Scenario independent (e.g. oil resource) Uncertainty Scenario dependent Van Vuuren 7 et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates August of 5, 21st 2011 century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp

8 Importance of uncertainty Monte-Carlo sampling from conditional probability distribution functions and run the model. (conditionality preserves the consistency among the parameters) Van Vuuren 8 et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates August of 5, 21st 2011 century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp

9 Importance of uncertainty Energy use CO2 emissions 90 th percentile Van Vuuren 9 et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates August of 5, 21st 2011 century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp

10 There is not a single representation of an SSP in one IAM Runs by other IAMs, obviously, allows to exploring even larger range of uncertainty space for different SSP Selecting illustrative scenarios risks imprinting a particular scenario interpretation on the scientific literature but increases comparability So for Shared Socio-economic Pathways trade-off between increasing consistency in the literature vs. decreasing uncertainty. In single studies, obviously, we would like to have high degree of consistency (so a particular impact study may decide only to use MODEL-X scenarios if it wants a high degree of consistency across 1 or 2 axes). Argument for strong emphasis on the basic SSPs and the use of multiple models 10 August 5, 2011

11 SRES Millennium Ecosystem Assessment GEO3/GEO4 Global Scenario Group Economic optimism A1 Markets first Market forces Reformed markets [A1T/A1-policy] Sustainable development Global Orchestration Policy first Policy reform B1 Technogarden Sustainability first New sustainability Paradigm Regional sustainability [B2] Adapting mosaic Eco-communalism Regional competition A2 Order from Strenght Security first Barbarization Business-as-usual [B2] Van Vuuren 11 et al.. The use of scenarios in global environmental August 5, assessments Global Environmental Change (under review)

12 Table 3. Key assumptions in different scenario families Economic optimism Reformed Markets Global SD Regional competition Regional SD Business as Usual Economic development very rapid Rapid ranging from slow to rapid slow ranging from mid to rapid medium (globalisation) Population Low Low Low high medium medium growth Technology Rapid Rapid ranging from slow ranging from medium development mid to rapid slow to rapid Main economic various global security local not defined objectives growth goals sustainability sustainability Environmen tal reactive both reactive and proactive reactive proactive both reactive and proactive protection proactive Trade globalisation globalisation globalisation trade barriers trade barriers weak globalisation Policies and institutions strong global governance local steering; local actors mixed policies create open markets policies reduce market failures strong national government s Note: This table summarises key assumptions in very general terms. Where differences within a set of scenario families exist, broad ranges are indicated. Van Vuuren 12 et al.. The use of scenarios in global environmental August 5, assessments Global Environmental Change (under review)

13 ADAM-project (Adaptation and Mitigation) Run IAM model output (population, income, temperature, preciptation) in impact models Sea level rise impacts (adaption costs + damage in , $) B2 (4 o C) B2-450 (2 o C) In the category CPA we tend to focus on mitigation (defines RF-level). Van Vuuren 13 et al. (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis August for 5, combined 2011 assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change 21 (2), pp

14 ADAM-project (Adaptation and Mitigation) Run IAM model output (population, income, temperature, preciptation) in impact models Water stress (mil. people) Water stress (people explosed) Population Climate B2 (4 o C) 0 Arnell, 14 N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications August 5, 2011 of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Global Environmental Change 21 (2), pp

15 People at water stress B2 (4 o ) B2-450 (2 o ) Arnell, 15 N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications August 5, of 2011 climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. GEC

16 People at water stress Arnell, 16 N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications August 5, of 2011 climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. GEC

17 Pattern of climate change may be much more important for some impacts than climate sensitivity of the model or whether a model is wet/dry on a global scale. It is difficult to determine a priori which models is going to lead to the largest impacts; also depends on the impact. So again, there is a strong trade-off between increasing consistency among the community to facilitate assessment and reducing uncertainty Important to define a minimum set of of shared parameters that is sufficient to allow comparability; ensures consistencies. In addition, make sure that other sets of richer data are available for modellers at the descretion of the individual modellers. 17 August 5, 2011

18 Special Issue Climatic Change 1. Overview paper (van Vuuren et al.) 2. MESSAGE paper (Riahi et al.) 3. AIM paper (Matsui et al.) 4. GCAM paper (Thomson et al.) 5. IMAGE paper (van Vuuren et al.) 6. Land use paper (Hurtt et al.) 7. Emission inventory paper (Garnier et al.) 8. Atm. Chemistry paper (Lamarque et al.) 9. GHG conc. & extension (Meinshausen et al) 18 August 5, 2011