ENERGY STORAGE POTENTIAL IN FRANCE PEPS STUDY FOR 2030

Transcription

1 ENERGY STORAGE POTENTIAL IN FRANCE PEPS STUDY FOR 2030 ARNAUD RENAUD, CEO ARTELYS OFAENR, BERLIN, 24/11/2015

2 PARTIES INVOLVED IN THE STUDY Steering committee Industrial funders and contributors Technical contributors 2

3 AIM OF THE STUDY Assess the energy storage installation potential in France by 2030 for several RES integration scenarios Identify the most economically relevant technologies Among 30 storage technologies (power storage, power to gas, heat and cold ) Out of scope : electrical mobility, uninterrupted supply and nomadic storage systems Point out possible actions (regulatory, economic) to make these technologies develop 3

4 3 SCENARIOS FOR 2030 Public scenarios on possible 2030 power mixes published by RTE (French TSO) and ADEME (French Agency for Environment) 20 to 40% intermittent renewable energies in the power mix ADEME scenario includes efforts in terms of load reduction. 600 TWh production 560 TWh production 440 TWh production RTE Intermediate scenario (MDN) RTE New Mix scenario (NMX) ADEME scenario (ADM) 4

5 9 CASE STUDIES For more details: artelys.com/media/peps/executive-summary.pdf Studie zum Energiespeichersystem Summary in German for DFBEE members Cogeneration VHV HV/MV Heating network France Cold storage LV Tertiary Non-interconnected Zone 5

6 METHODOLOGY Evaluation of the economic interest for the community as a whole: the social welfare increase when adding storage Total benefit of adding storage for the sum of all energy actors (consumers, producers, grid operators) Without taking into account regulatory constraints or incentive mechanisms The computed storage value comes from savings in Generation costs (arbitrage) Investments in peak plants (capacity value) Network investments (reduction of congestions) Ancillary services (reserves) Storage potential was evaluated using detailed simulations (hourly) 6

7 GWh GWh THE NEEDS FOR FLEXIBILITY A COMPREHENSIVE INDICATOR A specific indicator of a power system s need for flexibility was developed for the PEPS study. How many GWh need to be shifted in order to flatten net demand? Daily flexibility needs Weekly flexibility needs Net demand = Demand RES productions 7

8 Demand (GW) Daily needs for flexibility (GWh/day) NEEDS FOR FLEXIBILITY Within a day, needs for flexibility in the system highly depend on solar capacity level. Power demand 20 GW of PV ADEME 2050 study «100% RES» 140 GWh/day 100 Solar production happens when power demand is high RTE New mix scenario RTE Intermediate scenario ADEME scenario Hour of the day Installed PV capacity (GW) 2030 scenarios 8

9 NEEDS FOR FLEXIBILITY Electricity storage needs for intra-weekly cycles will increase significantly by ADEME 2050 study «100% RES» 1 TWh/week Unlike solar, wind production statistically varies over cycles of several days Increases in tertiary uses lead to higher differences between weekdays and weekends 9

10 The French context BUSINESS MODELS FOR ENERGY STORAGE IN FRANCE An already important storage capacity (13 GW hydro, 4.3 GW PHS, 13 to 20 TWh of electrical hot water heaters in homes) Around 10 GW of interconnexions with neighboring countries French Islands with higher generation costs and larger variations in net demand Revenues for storage 60 to 150 k /MW/y for arbitrage and capacity in Metropolitan France 300 to 450 k /MW/y for storages dedicated to the spinning reserve (under technical feasibility constraints) 200 to 350 k /MW/y in the French Islands Foreseen needs in France 1 GW to 2 GW of PHS in Metropolitan France 600 MW of storage dedicated to the spinning reserve (flywheels or Li-Ion batteries) MW in French Islands + significant potential for Non-Interconnected Zones

11 CONTACT For more details: artelys.com/media/peps/executive-summary.pdf Studie zum Energiespeichersystem Summary in German for DFBEE members Artelys France 12 rue du Quatre Septembre Paris FRANCE Artelys Canada 2001 Bd Robert Bourassa, Suite 1700 H3A 2A6 Montréal, QC CANADA Artelys USA 150 N Michigan Avenue, Suite Chicago, IL USA