Pan-European Pollutant Fate and transport Modeling at the JRC : applications to pesticides. G.Bidoglio F.Bouraoui A.Pistocchi P.Vizcaino J.

Transcription

1 Pan-European Pollutant Fate and transport Modeling at the JRC : applications to pesticides G.Bidoglio F.Bouraoui A.Pistocchi P.Vizcaino J.Zaldivar 1

2 Presentation Overview The FATE concept The MAPPE modeling strategy The SWAT model Examples of mapping and evaluation Summary and Applications 2

3 FATE of Pollutants in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems in Europe Linking modelling and monitoring for a multi-scale assessment Questions Questions arising arising in in the the context related context of related to to a a number of the the number of Commission of Commission policy environmental policy environmental agenda, Directives, agenda, e.g. Directives, e.g.: e.g.: May Water May a a risk-based Water Framework risk-based inventory inventory of Framework Directive, of hot hot spots spots be Directive, Nitrates, be carried carried out? Nitrates, Groundwater, out? Groundwater, Pesticides, Pesticides, Where Where Sewage Sewage is is Sludge Sludge pollution pollution a a driver driver for Soil for biodiversity Soil Thematic biodiversity loss? Thematic Strategy loss? Strategy How Strategy How will will climate Strategy on climate and on Sustainable and lifestyle Sustainable Use lifestyle changes Use of of Pesticides changes affect affect pollutant Pesticides pollutant release release and and Dioxin Dioxin fate? fate? Strategy Strategy and and Stockholm Stockholm Convention Convention on Do on Do Programmes POPsProgrammes of of Measures POPs Measures deliver deliver what what they they Policy promise? Policy promise? Support Support Modelling-based Modelling-based assessment assessment in in a a nested nested context context Scenario Scenario analysis analysis Results, Results, reports, reports, maps, maps, recommendations recommendations 3

4 Modeling needs Simplified models (e.g. HAIR, FOOTPRINT tools) are ideal for standard cases and routine regulatory applications Sometimes simulation of scenarios is required: Pan-European, cumulative effects (many pesticides, ( endpoints on many crops, with many toxic Two-tiers evaluation: Hot spot identification, critical conditions Detailed process simulation 4

5 MAPPE Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in Europe, Italian word to denote maps GIS-based strategy for mapping, modeling and evaluating the fate and transport of chemicals in Europe Basis for environment and health risk mapping Landscape/Climate Parameters Atlas ( upcoming ) ArcGIS tool 5

6 Coupling of environmental media: general concept sources - Soil water budget - Erosion sources Atmosphere Contaminant Budget Advection Removal ( particle Deposition (wet, dry, gas, Volatilization Soil contaminant budget Stream network + lakes loading sources Stream network + lakes Routing: Removal (volat., settling) + advection Oceans 6

7 Landscape/climate parameters: e.g. soil moisture Pistocchi, A., Vizcaino, M.P., Pennington, D.W., Analysis of Landscape and Climate Parameters for Continental Scale Assessment of the Fate of Pollutants; 7 EUR EN, 2006

8 Landscape/climate parameters: e.g. suspended ( mg/l ) solids in rivers 8

9 Legend log(t) log (sec) High : Low : Legend log(t) log (sec) High : L ow : The hydraulic geometry of European surface waters Pistocchi and Pennington, 2006 J.Hydrol. 9

10 Data dissemination, communication --- MAPPE linked with Google Earth 10

11 Data dissemination, communication --- MAPPE linked with Google Earth 11

12 The SWAT model 12

13 The SWAT model 13

14 Pesticides in SWAT 14

15 Pesticides in SWAT: Key processes, assumptions No growth stress due to weeds, damaging insects, other pests, Pesticide movement into the stream network via surface runoff (solution and sorbed to sediment ), and into the soil profile and aquifer by percolation (in solution). Land phase of the hydrologic cycle were adopted from GLEAMS (Leonard et al., 1987). Movement of the pesticide controlled by solubility, degradation half-life, and soil organic carbon adsorption coefficient. Transport by water and sediment calculated for each runoff event Pesticide leaching estimated for each soil layer when percolation occurs. 15

16 Land cover: Perm.crops (0/1) Land cover: Vineyards (0/1) Land cover: Arable land (0/1) % national total Perm.crops per km 2 Weight_perm Zonal sum by country polygon in EU25 % national total Vineyards per km 2 Weight_vine % national total Arable land per km 2 Weight_arab Emission = Weight_perm x Nat_perm + Weight_vine x Nat_vine + Weight_arab x Nat_arab A simplified method to disaggregate PPP use: - EUROSTAT - CLC 2000 Crops? National total pesticide use on Perm.crops nat_perm % of each crop class per country Join to attributes of country polygon map; rasterize to a map of country total pesticide use per crop group Group crops to arable, permanent crops and vines/grapes National total pesticide use on Vineyards nat_vine Total pesticide use per country per crop group Total pesticide use per crop in Europe National total pesticide use on Arable land nat_arab Country Polygons in EU25 16

17 Example: Pyrethroids in EU25 17

18 Use> screen PEC range 18

19 Screen variability > uncertainties due to chemical properties 1000% 100% (Max-Min)/Average 10% 1% 0% K M Cliq Csol Leach 19

20 Screen variability > uncertainties due to emission timing 10 m onthly value monthly emiss./uniform em iss latitude o N 20

21 Screen variability > uncertainties due to emission timing 10 annual average m onthly calc/annual calc latitude o N 21

22 What can be done Improved calculation of PECs Identification of (potential) hot spots Pan-European approach Straightforward interpretation of PECs in ( HAIR terms of risk indicators (e.g. Possibility to integrate virtually all PPPs used in EU25 (> EU27+) > cumulative effects - see PRIBel logics 22

23 Further developments Use of improved PPP statistics > Realistic description of emissions > reliable spatial distribution of PECs/risk indicators Observed env. concentrations (monitoring database integration) > model assessment > improvements 23