Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030

Transcription

1 Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction Prepared by The Danish Board of Technology RISØ DTU Ea Energy Analyses Strasbourg, 23 April 2008

2 Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Purpose To provide a general understanding of challenges, barriers and opportunities Advise on needed policies and measures Approach EU-27 technology scenarios for 2030 illustrating barriers, challenges and opportunities Key measures: more efficient energy use and renewable energy Use the STREAM tool developed in the project The future Danish Energy System by the Danish Board of Technology Two concrete goals 1. Reduce CO2 emissions by 50 per cent compared to the 1990-level 2. Reduce oil consumption by 50 per cent compared to the present level

3 Process of dialogue Politicians Answers Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Questions Others

4 Phase I Phase II Workshop Dinner debate Final workshop MEPs Stakeholders Experts -Energy -Transport -Savings MEPs Dialogue on - targets - measures - scenarios Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data Public model tool Draft report Updated tool, data, and scenarios Website Dissemination Nov/Dec Feb. - March April - May 2008 Sep. - Oct.

5 Five regional scenarios West North + one aggregated EU scenario Central East South

6 Developing scenarios Economic growth Fuel prices Saving potentials STOA Scenario RESULTS Infrastructure Technology Development Renewable resources

7 STREAM was developed STREAM in cooperation model between: The Danish TSO (Energinet.dk), The major Danish power producer (DONG Energy), Consultants EA Energy Analyses Ltd. and Risø National Laboratory Energy flow for Sustainable model Energy, Technical University of Denmark. STREAM has been further developed to cover all EU-27 countries. - Each country can be modelled individually or in groups of countries. Characteristics Energy demand model System balance model 1. It includes the whole energy system 2. It is fast to use (changing of scenarios during a meeting) 3. Publicly available - transparent

8 Key assumptions Economic growth rate as in DG Tren baseline from 2005 approx. 2 % p.a. for EU 27 STOA reference close to DG Tren baseline IEA fuel prices PJ

9 Main measures in scenarios Energy Savings Buildings, appliances Industry Transport Reduce fuel consumption of conventional cars/lorries Increase share of electric cars and plug-in hybrids Modal change: car/lorry => bike/train/bus/ship Exploit potentials for district heating Best available technologies

10 Main measures in scenarios Renewable energy Utilize all potentials for wind, bioenergy and municipal waste Solar and wave (more expensive) Nuclear As in DG Tren baseline Fossil fuels Reduced according to increased use of renewables

11 Energy savings

12 Large potentials Saving potential Description Heating existing buildings 42 % Improved insulation etc. Lighting 65 % Compact fluorescent lighting Water heating 65 % Major appliances % Small appliance standby 40 % High efficient electric water heater and solar water heater Increasing appliance efficiency standards at 2-3% per year Reduce standby power req. of televisions, set-top boxes etc. Source: McKinsey Eurima difficult to harvest EPC (European Policy Centre) Gain without pain: towards a more rational use of energy: New policy measures are needed + active use of existing directives, such as the Eco-Design Directive. Third-party financing (such as ESCO s) should be promoted. All public sector organizations should have ambitious targets (including the European Institutions). Metering and individual pay by the user is important.

13 Energy intensity Energy consumption per GDP TJ / MEUR Bulgaria Romainia Slovak Republic Estonia Czech Republic Lithuania Hungary Poland Latvia Slovenia Finland Malta Cyprus Belgium Greece Portugal Spain The Netherlands Sweden France Luxemburg Germany Italy Austria United Kingdom Ireland Denmark

14 TJ/MEUR Energy intensity in the 6 countries with lowest intensity compared to EU 27 average energy intensity % lower energy consumption per GDP EU 27 average energy intensity Germany UK Italy Ireland Denmark Austria Average of the 6 MS with lowest energy intensity

15 Liters of oil per m 2 Building regulation - new buildings Average energy consumption in Danish buildings

16 kwh/year kwh/år Appliances Example: refrigerators and freezers Køleskab Refrigerator Fryser Freezer New nyt 1975 New nyt 1988 New nyt 2001 Best Bedst

17 End use energy efficiency Efficiency improvements in reference and in scenarios Percentage saving compared to today s level Energy form Efficiency improvement in DG Tren and reference Additional savings in scenarios Tertiary Electricity Heating Industry Energy Residential Electricity Heating

18 PJ/year Final energy demand 2030 EU 27 reference and scenario Reference Scenario Transport Residential Tertiary Industry

19 Transport

20 Transport: efficiency improvements g/km Average sold car in EU Average car in EU27 scenario

21 Today s efficiency potential

22 Alternative fuels Electric vehicles share Region Cars Trucks/Cargo North 25% 20% Central 20% 20% South 15% 15% West 20% 15% East 15% 20% Biofuel: 5 % Gas: 5 %

23 Modal change Goods Lorry => train and ship Passengers Car => train, bus, bike Approx. 8 % of transport work shifted

24 District heating

25 District heating District heat as share of final energy demand, excl. transport 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Finland Lithuania Denmark Estonia Latvia Poland Czech Republic Sweden Bulgaria Slovenia The Netherlands Slovak Republic Romainia Hungary Austria Portugal Spain Germany Italy United Kingdom France Belgium Greece Luxemburg Ireland Cyprus Malta

26 District heating 2% => 18% 5% => 16% 16% => 26% 6 % => 19 % 12% => 23% Today => scenario 0 % => 17 % Share of final energy demand, excl. transport

27 Renewable energy

28 Renewable energy for electricity Production

29 Bioenergy share of gross energy consumption

30 Bioenergy 33 % 25 % 19 % 23 % 30 % Share of gross energy cons. Includes Municipal Solid Waste 24 %

31 Wind Power Wind power as share of total electricity consumption 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Denmark Spain Germany Ireland The Netherlands Portugal Greece Austria Luxemburg United Kingdom Sweden Italy Finland Cyprus Belgium Latvia Estonia France Lithuania Poland Czech Republic Romainia Hungary Malta Slovak Republic Slovenia Bulgaria

32 Wind power 20 % 16 % 23 % 20 % 6 % Share of electricity production 15 %

33 Current use of solar energy

34 Solar heating 2 % 5 % 2 % 4 % 3 % Share of gross energy consumption 11 %

35 Solar electricity 5 % Share of electricity production Incl. Photovoltaics, CSP

36 General results

37 PJ/year RE resources utilised in EU 27 scenario Potential 2030 Utilised in scenarios Biomass (EEA) Biogas (Green-X) CSP (SET Plan) + photovoltaic (Green-X) Wind (Green-X) Municipal waste (EEA)

38 Mix of fuels for power production in the scenario for % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Wave energy Geothermal Power PV/CSP Municipal Waste Biogas Biomass Wind Power Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Oil 10% 0% EU 27 North South Central West East

39 PJ 90,000 Gross energy consumption EU 27 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Nuclear RE Natural gas Coal Oil 50% oil target DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030

40 CO2-emissions - EU 27 m. tco2 / year 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Other energy Electricity and district heat Transport 50% CO2 target 1, DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030

41 Economic results Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. the average annual capital costs costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs Not considered Health benefits Cost of modal change and efficiency in transport Transaction costs related to implementation Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections Therefore: interpret results with caution

42 Economy base case Annuitised cost - extra costs in scenario compared to reference million 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total Oil: 62 $/bbl CO2: 20 /ton -0.1 % of GDP

43 Economy sensitivity million 200, , ,000 50, , , , , , , ,000 Annuitised cost - extra costs in scenario compared to reference Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total Oil: 110 $/bbl CO2: 20 /ton -0.7 % of GDP

44 PJ Results for a region Case: South Gross energy consumption Gross energy consumption (South) DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030 Oil Coal Natural gas RE Nuclear 50% oil target

45 CO2-emissions mio. tco2 / year CO2-emissions (South) DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030 Transport Electricity and district heat Other energy Storage CO2 50% CO2 target

46 General conclusions CO2 and oil reduction targets for 2030 can be met Requires Efficiency improvements incl. transport sector Utilization of available RE resources Infrastructure (electricity, district heating) Intelligent energy system Research, development and demonstration Economy Sensitive to fuel and CO2-prices Modest cost/benefits compared to total GDP

47 Next steps

48 Developing scenarios Economic growth Fuel prices Saving potentials Implemen tation Infrastructure Technology Development Renewable resources

49 Technology lifetime 2030 Buildings Infrastruct. Power plants Wind turbines Cars Appliances Years

50 Municipalities/ cities Goals EU s quota system To utilise practical experience Planning Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating Taxes and incentives Research, Development and Education Transnational planning of offshore windmills City planning and transport policies Green Campaigns Local Commitment CO2 Neutral Houses Existing buildings Urban districts To develop energy efficient vehicles Energy labelling and dynamic norms Demonstration of flexible energy system Consumers - Producers Hydro Wind District Heating Public Purchase Policy Electric/plug-in hybrid cars/buses Intelligent Energy System Global EU Member states Local