Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia

Transcription

1 Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in sia atoru KUMGI KEOL ouknilanh Ikumo IONO October 208 Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO

2 Contents Background of IDE-GM Model and Data Example of analyses Conclusion 2

3 What is IDE-GM? IDE-Geographical imulation Model) imulate the long-term evolution of population and the location of industries, Based on patial Economics Estimate the economic impacts of infrastructure development and customs facilitation at the sub-national level. Traditional CB on infrastructure needs various detailed information thus it takes time and money, and the scope of analyses is limited within nearby region or lacks ground view to consider multiple projects. General equilibrium frameworks enables total evaluation of economic impacts beyond directly involved regions. IDE-GM provides estimation of broader impacts on transport volumes and modal shifts

4 GDP per capita by region200) Geo-economic data in IDE-GM GDP by sector -griculture/mining -utomotive -E&E -Textile & Germent -Food Processing -Other Mfg. -ervices Population ub-national level: 98 economies 3,07 regions) National level:+ 7 countries 208//8 4

5 Estimating regional GDP by atellite Imagery Nighttime Lights Imagery of Myanmar Estimated GRDP per capita + Land cover 5

6 Transport network data in IDE-GM Road network data Over 4,000 routes, including -Road -ea -ir -Rail Multi-modal transport model 208//8 6

7 Manual/utomatic Compilation of Route data Trial of building route data by script In the field trip, we could drive the fastest in this section We consider major routes connecting big cities and provinces. We build the dataset manually based on the maps, existing database and field surveys. We are trying to construct the data from the third source data such as OM) and script, but still adjustment is needed. 7

8 995 Background: Big shift in the world economy 3.0% EU28 GDP share in the world 2.3%.2% 2.8% 7.6% Japan 24.7% 990 China India EN EU India EN EU Trade billion UD) China Japan U 9.3 Japan U % 24.3% 5.6% 5.9% 2.8% 3.3% China India EN China India EN EU Japan U

9 Progress of economic integration in East sia ource: EN ecretariat, EN Community in Figures: pecial Edition

10 The evolution of production networks in East sia Thailand pindle Motor Base Carriage Flex Cable Pivot eal VCM Top Cover PCB HG H U Disk Head uspension China PCB Carriage HG Base Head uspension Taiwan Top Clamp Hong Kong Filter Mexico Head Japan Cover Disk crew eal Ramp Top Cover Latch Plate Case Label Filter PCB uspension Global Purchasing by a HDD Manufacturer in 2005 Malaysia Base Pivot pacer VCM Card Top Clamp Disk ingapore Cover crew Pivot PC DP Disk Philippines D. Plate Coil upport PCB Indonesia W. uspension VCM PCB ource: Compiled from Hiratsuka 2006)

11 Urbanisation ource: ERI205), originally made by Keola ouknilanh

12 Poor state of road infrastructure JKRT National Road No., Bhutan Bypath of national road No.3, Indonesia National Road No., Myanmar ource: taken by Ikumo Isono 2

13 Bangalore elected Prospective Projects in Mekong ub-region 203) elected Prospective Projects in Mekong ub-region pecial Border Zone at Myawadi Route No.8: Kawkareik-Mawlamyine - Thaton Chennai Yangon port: Quay cranes Thilawa port improvement Upgrading Dawei airport Dawei deep sea port Chennai Chennnai Port- Ennore Port accesssway Outer ring road in Chennai: Phase 2 Ennore Industrial Park and EZ Expressway: Chennai - Bangalore High speed railway: Chennai - Bangalore Legend Project Progress tatus :Conceptual tage :Feasibility tudy tage :Construction tage :Operation tage : Industrial gglomeration Highway: Kanchanaburi - Dawei EZ/FTZ in Dawei Multimodal logistic park in Dawei Pharma & biotech city in yutthaya IT & ITE part in Phthum Thani CDZ KRL: Poipet - isophon 48km) Poipet Industrial Estate Koh Kong Industrial Estate Nam Theun 2 and Nam Ngum 2 Hydropower Plant Myawadi Khon Kaen Yangon EWEC Mawlamyaing avannakhet MIEC Dawei Bangkok MRT network uvarnabhumi airport: Phase 2 development Laem Chabang port: Phase 2 development Highway management improvement EN and East sia still need infrastructure. Bangkok Vientiane ihanoukville Hanoi Phnom Penh Da Nang Ho Chi Minh Expressway: Phnom Penh - ihanoukville ihanoukville airport upgrade KRL: PP Loc Ninh HCMC Cross-border facility at Bavet-Moc Bai Mekong bridge in Neak Loung NR) Reconstruction of NR3: Phnom Penh -Kampot ihanoukville port expansion Hanoi Ports: Cai Lan, Lach Huyen Noi Bai irport terminal 2 Expansion of Cat Bi irport Rail link : Hanoi Noibai P, Lang Hoa Lac Hoa Lac high tech park, Vietnam space center ICT infrastructure enhancement North-outh High peed Railway to HCMC) avannakhet airport improvement EZ in avannakhet Border Trading Zone in Dansavanh Da Nang airport: Passenger terminal Da Nang port improvement Ho Chi Minh City HCMC) Bypass and express ways around HCMC Cai Mep Thi Vai port: development, improvement Rail link: HCMC Vung Tau, HCMC My Tho oftware technology park Petro-chemical complex Transmission line: Can Tho HCMC Power plants in O Mon Phnom Penh port rehabilitation 3

14 High demand of IDE-GM in sia High demand for transportation infrastructure Heavy congestion in the big cities Very poor road in rural areas evere financial constraints of each country Poor socio-economic data Infrastructure improvement may change economic structure To prioritize infrastructure development, economic analysis using regional-wide dataset must be conducted and cannot wait for accurate data to be provided. 4

15 IDE-GM: the model We don t have: Government expenditure Taxes avings and investments Foreign exchange fluctuation Inflation/Deflation caused by change in the money supply We have Firms Consumers Natural population growth Migration within a country Price fluctuation by domestic and international competition 5 5

16 pecification of Industries gricultural ector -Constant-returns technology & monopolistic competition Mobile Labor Manufacturing ector -Dixit-tiglitz monopolistic competition -Input-Output structure in M-sector Transport costs Transport costs ervice ector -Dixit-tiglitz monopolistic competition Transport costs ll regions 6

17 Utility function 5 5 j j M j M j M j Q Q Q U 0 0 ) ) M j M j M j j M M j j j di i q Q di i q Q n n M M griculture 5 manufacturing ervice 7 0 ) di i q Q R

18 Wage and Price Index gricultural sector Nominal wage Price Index 8 ) ) ) ) ) r p r L r F r r w ) ) ) ) ) R s sr T r p r G

19 Manufacturing sector Price index G M r) R L s M s) Nominal wage M r) w M r) Wage and Price Indexcont.) M M s) R s M w M s) M G M s) M ) M Es) T M rs G M s) M ) G M r) M T M sr M ) M ) 9

20 ervice sector Price index Nominal wage ) ) ) ) ) ) ) R s sr T s w s s L r G s G T s Y r r w R s rs ) ) ) ) ) 20 Wage and Price Indexcont.)

21 Labor migration Labor migration among sectors within a region Labor migration in a country 2

22 Parameters specifying each industry Elasticity of substitution: hare of labor input: hare in consumption: griculture utomotive Electronics Textile Food Others ervice Mining

23 Transport Costs First, we estimate firms behaviors on modal choice by MNL. Firms tend to use trucks for domestic partners. Larger the distance between trading partners, the more likely the firms are to choose air or sea. Machineries industry tend to use air transports for foreign partners without smooth border transaction at the borders. Truck as a basis ir ea Coef..D. Coef..D. broad *** *** ln Distance Food as a basis) *** *** 0.67 *Textiles *Machineries ** *utomobile *Others Constant -5.7 *** *** Country dummy: Indonesia as a basis Philippines Thailand ** Vietnam *** tatistics Observations Pseudo R-squared Log likelihood,

24 econd, we develop a simple linear transport cost function with the parameters on time sensitiveness. representative firm in machineries industry will make a choice between truck and air transport and choose the mode with the higher probability of the MNL result. representative firm in the other industries will make a choice between truck and sea transport and choose the mode with the higher probability of the MNL result. Probability Equivalent Distance with Truck Kilometer): Domestic and International Transportation from Bangkok Domestic International ir ea ir ea Food 60,300,000 3,699 9, Textiles 2,022,900,28 2, Machineries 44,009, utomobile 225,394 7, Others 684,540 5,909,

25 Truck ea ir Unit ource cdist M U$/km Map peed M km/hour Estimation Dom ttrans M hours Estimation Intl ttrans M hours Estimation & Map Dom ctrans M U$ Map Intl ctrans M 500 N.. N.. U$ Map Food Textile Machineries utomobile Others ctime s Modal Mix of E&E Industry from yutthaya, Thailand) To Lamphun, Thailand To Phnom Penh To KL 25

26 Making cenarios: Trade Costs in GM 26 26

27 Development of economic corridors cenario peed of trailers Time required at national borders Money costs at national borders Without Baseline 38.5 km/h 3.2 hours 500 UD With Corridor + Facilitation 60 km/h 6 hours 250 UD Upgrading roads Customs Facilitations 27

28 How to Estimate the Economic Impacts? GRP lternative cenarios with corridor development by 2020 Economic Impact % compared with the baseline in 2030) Baseline with no or limited development projects by with infrastructure projects already completed by Compare the differences 0 years after) 28

29 Example : Kuala Lumpur-ingapore high-speed rail HR) Only passengers can use HR, no freight HR s cost per km: 8x of conventional train 2x of road /2 of air Waiting time at stations Longer waiting time => Lower frequency Over 200km/h average speed) The speed of conventional train is 40km/h 29

30 KL Putrajaya Example : G-KL HR, result eremban yer Keroh Muar B. Pahat Iskandar ingapore Million UD) Malaysia,005 Labuan -3 Johor 6 Kedah 7 Kelantan -8 Melaka -6 N. embilan -8 Pahang -26 P. Pinang 5 Perak 39 Perlis 3 elangor 36 Terengganu -6 abah -24 arawak -32 Kuala Lumpur 278 ingapore 88 TOTL,093 30

31 Reported by Local Newspapers 3

32 Example 2: Infrastructure development in EN Economic Impact in 2040 Proposing a set of infrastructure development projects to achieve both high economic impact in one country and positive impacts in many provinces. ssuming additional NTB reductions. 32

33 nalysis previous version) is adopted as regional/national policy Comprehensive sia Development Plan, independent research by ERI Japan's ministerial meeting for economic cooperation and infrastructure development 203) ource: ERI 200) Master Plan on EN Connectivity 200) ource: EN 200) ource: Prime minister's office website 33

34 Example 3: Highways in Mongolia Compared with Baseline in 2030) ome positive impacts are observed mainly Eastern Mongolia and Northeast China. ource: Calculated by IDE-GM

35 Example 3: Changes in Traffic Compared with Baseline in 2030) Traffic between Northeast China and Northwest China, through Mongolia East-West increased. ource: Calculated by IDE-GM

36 Example 4: uez-koper Link We incorporated NUT 2 level data for EU while EU is still considered as a rest of world in the model. new shipping link between uez, Egypt and Koper, lovenia will benefit some regions in Europe and many regions in East sia. Economic Impact in

37 Dilemma in making a CGE model in sia More realistic model Parameters and data required Model should be realistic but simple Need to estimate/interpolate data/parameters Lack of data 208//8 37

38 Dilemma in Making a CGE model in sia Huge diversity in economic structure Parameters and data required Model should be realistic but simple Parameters/data should be changing dynamically Drastically changing in economic structure 208//8 38

39 Dilemma in Making a CGE model in sia Rapidly developing infrastructure project High demand in CGE analysis on the project Model should be realistic but simple Model/data should be developed at a time No integrated data set/ standard model 208//8 39

40 Conclusion CGM model for sia should be realistic, but simple. There is no data and no standard model in sia, but cannot wait for perfect data/model. gile system development is required. There might be a free lunch in sia? Often, the source of finance for infrastructure is outside country and term and conditions are not determined. o, a tool like IDE- GM is required, before conducting detailed CB. 40