La nouvelle géopolitique de l'énergie

Transcription

1 La nouvelle géopolitique de l'énergie Bruxelles, 27 mars 218 Je m'exprime à titre personnel Toutes les données sont publiques 1/33 L'énergie vie Consommation d'énergie Croissance économique Moins de pauvreté Meilleure hygiène de vie Espérance de vie 2/51 1

2 Mtoe Demande en énergie = f(revenus) Source, James H. Brown et al., Energetic Limits to Economic Growth, BioScience, vol. 61, no 1, janvier 211, p Demande d'énergie primaire 18 FF= 77% FF= 75% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass/Waste Other Renewables Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables SAMUELE FURFARI 4 2

3 $/b Jan 199 Jun 199 Nov 199 Data of US EIA Sep 22Jun 23Apr 24Feb 25 Jun 214 Apr 215 Feb 216 Dec 216 Oct = la quarantaine est terminée De plus en plus de pétrole De plus en plus de gaz Gaz de roche mère Pétrole de roche mère UNCLOS Technologie 6 3

4 La nouvelle Europe Les réserves pétrolières ont été multipliées par 4 en 5 ans Gb Vol 1 Fig 4-12 Middle East Rest of the world 52 % 48 % Vol 1 Tab : 27 ans - 55 Mb/d 217: 51 ans - 95 Mb/d BP data 4

5 $/b b/d.rig Mm³/d.rig Vol 1 Fig Oil rig productivity 4 Gas rig productivity Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica 9/ Shale oil wellhead breakeven cost $/b-35$/b= 15$/b 15$/b x 6 Mb/j = 9 M$/j ou 33 milliards $/a Permian Midlant Permian Delaware Niobrara Eagle Ford Bakken Source: 1/ 5

6 Energy Diplomacy in the 21 st Century" Secretary Hillary Clinton's : Georgetown University, 18 Oct. 212 remains the position of the Obama II Administration "The United States has an interest in resolving disputes over energy, keeping energy supplies and markets stable through all manner of global crises, ensuring that countries don t use their energy resources or proximity to shipping routes to force others to bend to their will or forgive their bad behavior, and above all, making sure that the American people s access to energy is secure, reliable, affordable, and sustainable." Cost The Trump Administration Is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking Americans American ressources and maximize the use of American resources, freeing us from dependence on foreign oil. Less legislation (climate) Is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan Shale will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution. Coal is also committed to clean coal technology, and to reviving America s coal industry Independence from OPEC is committed to achieving energy independence from the OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests. Responsible environment our need for energy must go hand-in-hand with responsible stewardship of the environment. President Trump will refocus the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water Economy A brighter future depends on energy policies that stimulate our economy, ensure our security, and protect our health. Source: 6

7 Mb/d US oil production and export Mb/d Crude Oil Domestic Production Condensates Renewable liquids Transportation Net Imports US EIA Energy Outlook 218, AEO218&cases=ref218&sourcekey= 13 Vol 2 Fig 9-14 North America oil production and consumption 3 25 Vol 2 Fig Production Consumption Vol 2 Point Vol 2 Fig / 7

8 "Fifteen years ago, they told us we found all the oil and gas there was to find and that the days of being able to develop oil and gas were over with," Perry said. "Well, that's not the case. So does it make sense to sit down with our colleagues in Canada and Mexico to renegotiate a new North America Free Trade Agreement? Yes, I think it does." 15/ Mexico 218 -Resultados de la Cuarta Licitación Ronda 2 31/1/ / 8

9 Mtoe Oil production in SA, Iraq, Iran, Russia and USA Source: BP Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Russia U.S.A. 17/ 65 18/ 9

10 Please, come back to Iran. We will change our buy-back contract's type Davos, 23/1/214 19/ Résultats de 217 Pas une vilaine Amélioration des volumes Bénéfices Avenir Pas US! Pas une capitaliste État socialdémocrate 2,8 Mb/j eq +5%./. 217 (+ 3 4% d'ici 22) 11 Milliards $ d'investissements en $/ baril 3,7 Milliards Dividende + 4,5 % rachat d'actions à plus long terme. nouveaux gisements du groupe devant être rentables avec un baril à 21 $ 2/ 1