Watershed Governance in Making River Plan in Japan : The Public Choice Viewpoint

Transcription

1 Watershed Governance in Making River Plan in Japan : The Public Choice Viewpoint Salzburg Seminar, September 18, 2008 Junichi Nagamine Professor, School of Policy Studies Kwansei Gakuin University, Hyogo, Japan

2 1. Background The river law was amended in 1997 in Japan, which has been reputed as a big shift of the river administration. As the objectives of river administration, the river law stipulated flood control and water utilization before. The new river law added "environmental conservation and improvement of rivers" as its objectives. And it conditioned reflection of regional opinions in the process of making a river plan.

3 History of the Big Change of the River Law Flood Control Flood Flood Control Control + + Water Water Utilization Utilization + Environmental Conservation

4 When planning the river works, integrated river administration or comprehensive flood control was also advocated. It means that we should think of the river basin or watershed (forests, farmlands, parks, irrigation ponds, urban area etc.) as well as river channels and reservoir facilities (mainly dam) as the flood control measures respectively. In order to move the comprehensive flood control system, it is essential and expected that the different sections, departments or bureaus work together.

5 2. The Interests of This Presentation Currently the old river plans are being revised to the new ones under the new river law nationwide. What s going on those now? The river plans have been criticized before, because they were biased to the flood control measures and the easy public investment projects. Is this tendency changing under the new river law? How are three purposes, flood-control, water utilization and environmental conservation, well balanced in a new river plan? How are the planning processes and the involvement of local residents in there? Are administrative efforts to overcome the vertically separated structure really working?

6 Worldwide, watershed management, comprehensive management, residents and government partnership, and the new governance structure etc. are being watched. How is the Japanese river works program? The Japanese policy structure is usually characterized as the national bureaucracydriven. During this term, the decentralization reform has also been underway. How is the reality of the river administration? From these points, I critically examine the making process of a new river plan, and then deduce the policy recommendations to make the original intention of the new river law effective.

7 This place is a candidate for a dam in Muko river.

8 3. River Plan Consisting of "Fundamental River Management Policy and "River Improvement Plan" Formerly, a river plan was called "the basic plan for the implementation of river construction works", which sets both long-term objectives and the policy measures by all. The new river law establishes a river plan in two phases; (1) "the fundamental river management policy(frmp)" which declares the long-term objectives or the goals (2) "the river improvement plan(rip)" which specifies the policy measures to achieve the goals in 20 to 30 years

9 * Old River Law (before 1997) New River Law (after 1997) Basic Plan for the Implementation of River Construction Works Fundamental River Management Policy (FRMP) Vision / Goals Vision / Goals Concrete Measures River Improvement Plan (RIP) Concrete Measures

10 "FRMP" mainly determines the following contents. the possible flood damage frequency or the degree of safety in the future. how much stream flow is anticipated as the biggest flood in some assumed probability on the reference point of a river. This quantity of stream flow is called the basic flood discharge. the allocation of basic flood discharge into river channels and flood control facilities (dams and reservoir storage facilities etc.). The quantity of stream flow into river channels is called the design flood discharge.

11 Flood Scale is Assumed Stream Flow is Anticipated Basic Flood Discharge River Channels Flood Control Facilities Design Flood Discharge Dam

12 FRMP" is supposed to set the long-term goals of river works, but it doesn t stipulate a specific period to achieve these goals. The length of a period of a river plan must influence the setting of long-term objectives. If we think about the 100 years plan, technology or generation of a society could change, meaning that the policy goal itself could change. In this case, how can we understand the longterm goals defined by river administration?

13 4. Reflection of Regional Opinions to River Plan The new river law requires, when making the RIP,. to hear and reflect the opinions from prefectural governors and local residents. However, the law doesn t suggest any concrete method, while it writes just the law spirit. So far, these efforts are being carried out by trial and error. A general way is to set up a river basin committee formed of representatives of residents and experts as well as in other fields. However, it is still in many cases that the committee members give only formal comments to public administration and river administrators.

14 1 phase Long Term Goals FRMP 2 phase Concrete Measures RIP Basic Flood Discharge Design Flood Discharge Prefectural Governors City Mayors River Basin Committee Local Residents

15 In addition, the committee members sometimes have conflicting opinions to the original plan prepared by a river bureau. For example, a river bureau includes a dam construction in a RIP, but committee members are opposed to that idea and recommend different measures. In such a case, it is at present unknown what "the reflection of regional opinions" means. To hear and reflect regional opinions" is stipulated only at the stage of RIP. The decision-making authority of FRMP" is still left to a river bureau and a river administrator.

16 5. Significance of Basic Flood Discharge in FRMP The basic flood discharge, the maximum flow rate predicted under some flood probability, has an important meaning in terms of binding the longterm goals of a river plan, which restrict policy measures and a scale of public investment. Therefore, if "the basic flood discharge" is higher, it is more favorable for a river administration bureau. One reason is that setting a higher discharge is more expedient for bureaucrats to promote the various menus of public projects in the future.

17 Another reason is that it allows the ministry's river bureau to preserve their budget and privilege over public investments related to river works. Thus, river bureaucrats appear to have tendency to set the basic flood discharge excessively. In fact, the basic flood discharges set in the many previous river plans have not yet been attained after several decades, and also it is predicted that they would not be attained even in the next several decades.

18 A typical facility of flood control is a dam. A dam construction needs the biggest budget among the river works menus and is a kind of effective measure for flood control, if overlooking other effects. Thus, a river bureau is likely to prefer a dam construction. However, a dam construction often engenders confrontation with residents. If you want to put dam-building into the river works menus, the level of basic flood discharge and its allocation into measures have a critical meaning, which is set in the FRMP.

19 However, the new river law doesn t guarantee that river administrators hear the local views at the stage of making the FRMP. Also even if local residents could have a chance to express their opinions, river administrators have discretion to decide the basic flood discharge etc. by their own intention. Accordingly, the basic flood discharge of the FRMP should be a hot and important issue in making a river plan.

20 This is the dam with a hole. The national river bureau thinks this is a good idea which satisfies both flood control and conservation of fluvial environment??? hole

21 6. The Setting Process of Basic Flood Discharge Up to now, a lot of questions and complaints have been raised to the setting process of a basic flood discharge. The calculation procedure is entrusted to experts and the final decision is at the mercy of the bureaucrat s discretion. The basic flood discharge is set as follows; (1)The reference point of a river for planning is determined. (2)The probability of flood-scale is set. In other words, which ranked flooding is assumed to occur, for example once in 100 years.

22 (3) There is no enough data concerning the flowing quantity at a flood time. Therefore the rainfall data that caused floods in the past is used. (4) The amount of rainfall of 1/100 probability, which is called the amount of the design rainfall, is set. Then the actual rainfall patterns which caused floods are enlarged to the amount of the design rainfall. (5) The design rainfall patterns are used to forecast how much river flow rate occurs on the reference point by using the outflow analysis model.

23 This place is a candidate for a dam. (6) Finally, one figure is selected as the basic flood discharge from the forecasted flow rates. In the calculation of these quantities of flow rates, a lot of assumptions are set. Each predicted flood discharge can change even after one of these assumptions is changed.

24 7. The Possibility of Manipulating the Basic Flood Discharge If the data, the model, and the assumptions are appropriately selected for calculation, the basic flood discharge is automatically shown. However, the reality might trace the opposite process. The basic flood discharge is an important figure because it constraints the long-term scale of public investment for the river administration. My hypothesis is that the river bureaucrats have a special preference to the higher figure of a basic flood discharge. I call this is the bureaucratic behavior hypothesis concerning the basic flood discharge.

25 Now the calculation method is getting more exquisite. Nevertheless the basic flood discharges are still unchanged, which figures are almost same as the former ones. Exactly the reality is providing the evidence of the hypothesis. If so, the basic flood discharge is a figure arbitrarily made. Arbitrary manipulation might be performed in the selection of the data set and the assumptions for a model. In this sense, as the calculation becomes more complex, the river bureaucrats come to be able to manipulate more easily. Further, a river basin committee might be used for the alibi-making of a river administrator or bureaucrats.

26 8. Flood Control Is Still Primary Purpose of the River Administration The new river law specifies three objectives; flood control, water utilization, and environmental preservation. These objectives would be placed at the same level in the law. However, a river plan is still settled by only the river planning bureau that treats only flood control. To achieve three objectives in balance, the cooperation between different sections, departments or bureaus related to a river basin is indispensable. But they are not so positive to work together. The water utilization and environmental preservation objectives are placed under flood control.

27 An active river basin committee often has conflicts with a river bureau. The members of a river basin committee mind not only "flood control" but also "water utilization" and particularly "preservation of fluvial environment", but a river bureau considers flood control in the first place. When river bureaus specify concrete policy measures, they consider "certainty" and "secure evidence" as absolute conditions. It is another hindrance to do reform the government system. If "certainty" and "secure evidence" are strictly required, we can never challenge a new solution. This is called infallibility of bureaucracy.

28 This is a typical river improvement work, shore protection works.

29 9. Comprehensive Flood Control and the Separated Structure of Public Administration The new river law advocates "the comprehensive flood control" that targets not only river channels but also an entire watershed. Further the new river law proposes soft measures as well as hard measures for saving human life and extreme floods. In order to carry out these policy, the cooperation of related sections, departments or bureaus is indispensable.

30 Flood Control Bureaucratic Organization River Law Water Utilization Environmental Conservation River Planning Section Farmland Section Forest Section Land Planning Section Water Resource Section Environmenta l Section *This picture is simplified for convenience.

31 The cooperation among the nation, prefectures, and municipalities is also necessary. Furthermore the three objectives stated in the new liver law, of course, demand the cooperation of related sectors. However, the cooperation inside public administration is not well worked. Prefectural bureaus put priority to granted projects by the national government and still value the connection with the national bureau. The national government bureaus still act to maintain and enlarge their authority and discretion to local bureaus.

32 10. The Relationship between Prefectural and National River Bureaus after Decentralization Reform Japanese rivers are divided into the class A river and the class B river legally. The class B river is under a prefectural governor. The 2000 decentralization reform authorized the position of a prefectural governor as a river administrator more clearly. However the hierarchical relationship between the nation and the prefectures has hardly changed.

33 The manner to settle on a river plan is minutely regulated by the official notice of the national river bureau. The prefectural river bureau still judges the important points of a river plan according to the intention of the national river bureau. They say it is just "agreement", but the reality is still the same with "authorization. When they receive a grant-in-aid for river works and dam construction, this relationship is even stronger.

34 This is a typical scenery of mountains area.

35 11. In Conclusion 1. FRMP sets a long-term goal of a river plan and supposes the flood scale that might occur once in 100 or 200 years. But it is not clarified how long ahead the long-term goal of a plan should suppose. 2. FRMP is still decided by the river administrator s and river bureau s discretion without considering the regional opinions. 3. A river bureau determines the basic flood discharge which is very important and critical, because it can constraint the flood control measures including a dam.

36 4. The river bureau has a tendency to set a basic flood discharge as much as higher, because it decides the upper bound of public investments in the long run. 5. It might be true that the river bureaucrats maximize their budget. This is a typical hypothesis in the public choice theory. 6. Although the computation method of a basic flood discharge is getting more exquisite, its figures selected don t show any change. 7. It is likely that a river bureau might have the conclusion before computation.

37 8. The computation of a basic flood discharge depends on a lot of assumptions and discretional judgments, and there is a possibility that river bureaus manipulate those assumptions and judgments. 9. Many watershed committees are being organized to respond to the new river law s requirement in RIP phase. However, just opinions or comments are formally given in many cases. 10. Moreover these committees might be used to set up an alibi for the river bureaus decision.

38 11. The new river law states three policy objectives. However, the flood control objective is still placed as a primary position. 12. Considering three objectives in balance, the environmental perspective should be placed over others. 13. A comprehensive flood control needs the collaboration of different sections and bureaus. However, they are not so positive to work together. 14. Level B river is under the jurisdiction of prefectural government. However a prefectural river bureau is tied to the national river bureau with the government ordinance and grants-in-aid.

39 15. The river bureaucrats appear to be bound by infallibility, in other words certainty and secure evidence in choosing measures. We need to change our society to approve social experiments in the decentralized system. 16. River management must primarily be a regional issue. We must leave each region to take care of its regional resources, including the important decisions like a basic flood discharge. 17. Local governments must overcome the traditional structure. Otherwise, making a balance of three objectives and carrying out integrated and comprehensive program will never be successfully realized.

40 This is not a river. This is a bay of my home town where I grew up. Thank you very much.