National action plans Prospects and requirements for the new renewables action plans in Italy

Transcription

1 National action plans Prospects and requirements for the new renewables action plans in Italy Autoren: Lukas Liebmann, Gustav Resch Energy Economics Group (EEG) Technische Universität Wien Kontakt: Web: resch@eeg.tuwien.ac.at based on research of the Intelligent Energy Europe Project towards2030-dialogue (Dialogue on a RES policy framework for 2030) Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide1

2 Background & objective of this presentation The EU Energy Roadmap 2050 gave the first signals on possible development paths for renewable energies beyond and identified renewable energies as an indispensable option as a central pillar on the way to a climate friendly energy system. Afterwards, Europe's path towards 2030 was intensively discussed, and in October 2014, the Council of the European Union adopted a binding target of at least 27% for the share of renewable energy consumed in the EU by This presentation provides an outlook on 2030, showing possible developments of renewable energy within the EU in accordance with the Council decision 2 theses will be presented, which will serve to sketch necessary further steps... Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide2

3 The EU winter package: Governance regulation 30 November 2016 Legislative package: "Clean energy for all Europeans" Three core objectives are pursued: Energy efficiency as a top priority Europe is striving for a global leadership role in renewable energies The transition to clean energy must also be fair for consumers New governance regulation: To achieve the EU's climate and energy targets Based on tight network of planning + reporting Integrated National Energy and Climate Plans of the Member States (MS) Integrated National Energy and Climate Progress reports of MS Monitoring reports of the EU Commission Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide3

4 Integrated national energy and climate action plans Self-compliant national target for renewable energies incl. Sector- and technology-specific development trajectory Collective duty to achieve the goal Binding template covering the 5 dimensions of the energy union decarbonisation energy efficiency energy security the internal energy market research, innovation and competitiveness Progress reports every 2 years The drafting of the plans will be preceded by public consultations and should include the dimension of regional cooperation Updates of the plans after five years, but only to more ambitious targets Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide4

5 Governance timeline Action plan designed by MS, followed by recommendations by the European Commission Submission of the final action plan for Assessment of the MS action plans by the Commission Progress reports of MS; Then every 24 months Assessment of progress at EU and MS level; Then every 24 months Possible update of MS plans Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide5

6 EU COM: Monitoring The Commission examines the Member States' plans primarily for the collective achievement of the Energy Convention + two-year progress assessment Non compliance 2020 targets Insufficient ambitions Insufficient progress Compulsory financial contribution to the financing platform Action at Union level EU Commission makes recommendation to MS Action at Union level Additional measures (contribution to the financing platform, increase of the EE share in the heat / transport sector) Exact consequences in the case of non-compliance or low ambition level still unclear So far neither mandatory national targets nor benchmarks are considered Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide6

7 Increase of RES-E generation by decade [TWh/a] Results of model calculations & theses Increase of RES generation by decade [TWh/a] Renewable development at EU level by 2030: power generation from new plants, comparison 2011 to to 2030, total (electricity, heat, traffic - left) (Right) (bandwidth according to investigated scenarios consistent with 27% Renewable 2030)... Comparison of net vs. Gross increase (incl. Replacement of installations which are due to age) RES electricity RES total Net increase Gross increase Net increase Gross increase to to to to 2030 Ambition level of 27% Renewable 2030 is not to be underestimated, especially in the electricity sector Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide7

8 Levelised (15 years) weighted average remuneration for yearly new RES-E installations and corresponding market values [ /MWhRES] Results of model calculations & theses Average required total remuneration of electricity from renewable energy sources and possible (maximum) market losses Required financial support (net funding) Net support for RES-E (on average) Total remuneration of RES-electricity* Market value of RES-electricity* Wholesale price* Note: *Dotted lines show the average values (at EU level) of different scenarios in line with 27% RES by The shaded areas indicate the ranges that occur across these scenarios. (Thesis 1) The need for financial support (at moderate levels) for renewable energies is also needed after 2020 to reach the target of 27% of renewable energies in 2030 Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide8

9 Results of model calculations & theses A binding EU target of 27% Renewable 2030 was approved by the Council but: It is currently unclear what contribution Member States can or should achieve to comply with the overall EU target ("Effort sharing") In order to obtain a clearer picture, the European Commission should publish benchmarks or indicators on the contribution of individual Member States. (Thesis 2) Benchmarks that break down the EU-wide target at Member State level are helpful in encouraging Member States to make ambitious commitments to "share the effort". Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide9

10 EU 28 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU 2020 RES targets per country and the additional RES share needed to meet 2030 target (RED 2020 calculation approach) Results of model calculations & theses Flat rate benchmark - 7% increase for all Member States 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 56% Flat rate of 7% 2020 targets 2015 RES shares* 49% 45% 41% 37% 38% 32% 27% 30% 30% 31% 32% 25% 25% 27% 27% 23% 23% 24% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 22% 21% 22% 18% 17% 10% 0% A fair and efficient benchmark? A flat rate puts countries with low energy intensity and large potentials of renewable energies at an advantage This does not take account of the Member States' economic capacity to finance additional integration of renewable energy sources Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide10

11 EU 28 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU 2020 RES targets per country and the additional RES share needed to to meet 2030 target (RED 2020 calculation approach) Results of model calculations & theses Benchmark based on the national potential for renewable energies 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 55% RES Potential max RES Potential min 2020 targets 2015 RES shares* 48% 45% 46% 44% 38% 39% 39% 36% 34% 34% 33% 27% 28% 28% 27% 25% 24% 25% 23% 18% 18% 18% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 11% 0% Bandwidths result from European least-cost scenarios The min-max spread is based on a sensitivity analysis of nonfinancial barriers, energy consumption and the possible promotion of biofuels High burden for economically weaker countries Hohe Belastung für wirtschaftlich schwächere Länder * Vorläufige Ergebnisse aus IMPACT ASSESSMENT SWD(2016) 418 final Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide11

12 The end is approaching! The theses and framework to be derived for Italy at a glance Financial support (at moderate levels) for renewable energies is also needed after 2020 to reach the EU wide target of 27% renewable energies in Benchmarks that break down the EU-wide target at Member State level are useful in encouraging Member States to provide ambitious commitments for "sharing the effort". For Italy, a target for the share of renewable energies from at least 24% to 25% for 2030 results from both the range of benchmarks and model calculations. Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide12

13 Thank you for your attention! Interested in more information on this topic? Lukas Liebmann Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide13

14 Range of benchmarks for additional RES share after 2020 targets Range of benchmarks for additional RES share after 2020 targets Overview of benchmark bandwidth 24.5% 24,5% 21.0% 21,0% 2015 RES shares* 24.5% 24,5% 21.0% 21,0% 17.5% 17,5% 17.5% 17,5% 14.0% 14,0% 14.0% 14,0% 10.5% 10,5% 10.5% 10,5% 7.0% 7,0% 7.0% 7,0% 3.5% 3,5% 3.5% 3,5% 0.0% 0,0% 0.0% 0,0% -3.5% -3,5% -3.5% -3,5% -7.0% -7,0% Results of model calculations & theses -7.0% -7,0% -10.5% -10,5% AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE GR ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK -10.5% -10,5% Broad spectrum for countries with a relatively low GDP per capita and large, favourable potentials of renewable energies... or vice versa There is a need for cooperation and / or regional benchmarks Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide14

15 EU28 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom RES share in gross final energy demand by 2030 [%] Ergebnisse der Modellrechnungen & Thesen Results of the model calculations & of the 2020 target definition logic Pathways: Benchmarks: Harmonised Quota Stringent State Aid Guidelines National Policies with Common Guidelines National Policies with Strong Cooperation Regional Cooperation ETS only RED2020 approach Alternative approach 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rome, 17 July 2017 Lukas Liebmann Slide15