Climate Change: The Real Challenge and How to Deal with It. Michael Yulkin

Transcription

1 Climate Change: The Real Challenge and How to Deal with It Michael Yulkin Moscow, IFC, 05 June 2013

2 Content: Climate Changes Evidence Climate Change Reason Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

3 Content: Climate Changes Evidence Climate Change Reason Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

4 Temperature of the Ocean Ocean waters become warmer. For example, the current that goes from the Atlantic to the Arctic to the west of Spitsbergen, warmed by about 1 degree. This is in fact not a small number, because huge mass of water goes warmer. The most important indicator is not the surface temperature of the ocean waters or air over the ocean, but the temperature of the water column. Therefore, this growth clearly shows a real warming of the planet.

5 Temperature of the Ocean Source: Richter-Menge, J., M. O. Jeffries and J. E. Overland, Eds., 2011: Arctic Report Card 2011,

6 Air Temperature Global Source:

7 Air Temperature Regions Source: IPCC 4AR, vol. 1, Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. p. 468,

8 Air Temperature Russia Source: Доклад об особенностях климата на территории Российской Федерации за 2011 год. М.: Росгидромет,

9 Air Temperature Russian Regions Source: Доклад об особенностях климата на территории Российской Федерации за 2011 год. М.: Росгидромет,

10 Air Temperature Arctic Source: Richter-Menge, J., M. O. Jeffries and J. E. Overland, Eds., 2012: Arctic Report Card 2011, as per data

11 Arctic Ice (min square in Sep.) Million km 2 Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (USA) ice_index_sept (данные за г. см.

12 Arctic Ice (min volume in Sep.) Thousand km 3 Source: Polar Science Center.

13 Arctic Ice Melting WMO has confirmed that the Arctic s sea ice melted at a record pace in 2012, which as actually the ninthhottest year on record. With just 3.4 million km 2 during the August to September melting season, the sea ice cover was 18% less than the previous low set in The WMO s Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said this was a disturbing sign of climate change, and pointed to the link between climate change and extreme weather events.

14 Arctic Ice Melting Deglaciation is strongest in Greenland and the in the Canadian Arctic Shelf. Novaya Zemlya has already lost more than 250 km 2 of ice cover. Now the same process is going on in West Antarctica, where the ice shelf collapse; the lower boundary of the shelf is below sea level.

15 Content: Climate Changes Evidence Climate Change Reason Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

16 Human Induced Climate Change According to computer models from the IPCC, the rise of temperature in the last hundred years does not match the trends of natural climate drivers such as the sun s energy and volcanic eruptions. It is only when the human influences of greenhouse gas emissions are added that a close correspondence between temperature change and climate drivers ensues.

17 Human Induced Climate Change An overwhelming majority of the world s scientists credit humans as being responsible for global warming. In a 2004, the American historian of science Naomi Oreskes analyzed 928 peer-reviewed articles generated from a search on climate change on the Institute for Scientific Information database. 75% of the articles supported the conclusion about human caused climate change. The remaining 25% had no comment on the issue. So, out of 928 articles reviewed, none criticized the view that humans are responsible for global warming. In a study conducted this year by John Cook of the Global Change Institute, it was found that in 12,000 peer-reviewed articles on climate science, 97% of the articles taking a position on global warming identified humans as the cause.

18 Human Induced Climate Change Bob Ward, policy director, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics: We are in the process of creating a prehistoric climate that humans have no evolutionary experience of. Then, temperatures were 2 to 3 o C higher than pre-industrial times, the polar ice caps were much smaller, and sea levels were about 20 m higher than today. David Nussbaum, chief executive officer, WWF U.K.: We are heading in the wrong direction in terms of dealing with climate change. There is limited time for governments to achieve the goal they have set themselves for agreeing a global deal that effectively tackles climate change.

19 CO 2 Concentration Record High According to the measurements made at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii on May 9, 2013, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere reached 400 ppm. Probably, for the first time in human history. According to climate scientists, the milestone of 400 ppm signals the warmest Earth since most likely the Pliocene era 3 to 5 million years ago, when temperatures were far greater than today and sea level was 10 to 20 meters higher. Through drilling ice sheets made from ancient snow, and analyzing the air bubbles trapped within, it s well known that for the past 800 thousand years, CO 2 naturally cycled from 180 ppm to 280 ppm and never exceeded 300 ppm.

20 CO 2 Concentration Keeling Curve CO 2 atmospheric levels have been steadily rising for 200 years, registering around 280 ppm at the start of the industrial revolution and 316 ppm in 1958 when the Mauna Loa observatory started measurements. The CO 2 records were started in 1958 by renowned climate scientist Dave Keeling. Mauna Loa observatory has been taking hourly atmospheric CO 2 readings from atop a Hawaiian volcano two miles up in the air for 55 years. The graph produced from the measurements reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory is known as the Keeling Curve.

21 CO 2 Concentration Keeling Curve Source:

22 CO 2 Concentration Hockey Stick Source: IPCC 4AR, vol. 1, Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. Russian Version. p. 111,

23 Anthropogenic GHG Emissions Source: The Emission Gap Report, UNEP, December 2010, 52 рр.

24 Human Induced Temperature Rise New science study confirms hockey stick : the rate of warming since 1900 is 50 times greater than the rate of cooling in previous 5000 years A stable climate enabled the development of modern civilization, global agriculture, and a world that could sustain a vast population. The most comprehensive Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years reveals how stable the climate has been and how destabilizing manmade carbon pollution has been and will continue to be unless we dramatically reverse emissions trends.

25 Human Induced Temperature Rise Source:

26 Climate Disasters USA Example From Hurricane Sandy s blow to the Northeast to the protracted drought that hit the Midwest Corn Belt, natural catastrophes across the US pounded insurers last year, generating $35 billion in privately insured property losses, $11 billion more than the average over the last decade. And the industry expects the situation will get worse.

27 Climate Disasters USA Example Damage in Mantoloking, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy.

28 Climate Disasters USA Example Peter Höppe, head of Geo Risks Research at the reinsurance Munich Re: Numerous studies assume a rise in summer drought periods in North America in the future and an increasing probability of severe cyclones relatively far north along the U.S. East Coast in the long term. The rise in sea level caused by climate change will further increase the risk of storm surge.

29 Content: Climate Changes Evidence Climate Change Reason Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

30 Managing GHG Emissions Reduce GHG emissions as much as possible through: Energy efficiency/energy saving Renewable energy development Waste biomass utilization and use of biofuels Forest protection and conservation Development and implementation of CCS technologies Enhance GHG removal through: Afforestation/Reforestation Peat land preservation

31 Managing GHG Emissions Cap emissions on national and international level Tax GHG emissions Cap-n-trade GHG emissions Monitor, verify and report GHG emissions Offset GHG emissions by purchasing GHG emission reductions and supporting carbon projects

32 Content: Climate Changes Evidence Climate Change Reason Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

33 Adapt to Climate Change Adjust economic, social and political systems to meet climate change challenges Identify and overcome vulnerability Consider climate change when making decisions to avoid damages and losses

34 Thank you for your attention Michael Yulkin