Perspectives of Wind and Solar Energy Sources at Global and European Level

Transcription

1 Perspectives of Wind and Solar Energy Sources at Global and European Level Franz Trieb Spring of Research, EDF, October 8, 29 Folie 1 Annual Global Irradiance for PV Systems Capacity Factor 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% [kwh/m²/y] Firm Capacity % % Annual Global Tilted Irradiation [kwh/m²/y] Source: ECMWF Folie 2 1

2 Annual Average Wind Speed at 5 m Height Capacity Factor 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% [m/s] Firm Capacity up to 3% % Average Wind Speed [m/s] Folie 3 Annual DNI for Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants Firm Capacity up to 1% Capacity Factor. 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Direct Normal Irradiation [kwh/m²/y] Solar Multiple: SM4 SM3 SM2 SM1 Folie 4 2

3 Principle of a Concentrating Conventional Thermal Solar Thermal Power Power Plant Plant Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors) Solar Heat Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam Turbine) Fuel Electricity Thermal Energy Storage Process Heat concentrated, easily storable solar thermal energy as fuel saver spinning reserve firm capacity, power on demand combined generation of process heat for cooling, industry, desalination, etc. Folie 5 ANDASOL 1, Guadix, Spain (5 MW, 7 h Storage, 29) Folie 6 3

4 Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa Biomass (-1) Geothermal (-1) Solar (1-25) Max Wind Energy (5-5) Hydropower (-5) Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y Folie 7 Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA 16 > 63 Electricity in TWh/y How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like? Solar Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Wave/Tide Desalination MENA Europe Potentials Demand 2 Demand 25 Folie 8 4

5 Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply: Inexpensive low electricity cost no long term subsidies Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technology capacities expandable in time Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access Folie 9 Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity: Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass Hydropower Wind Power Photovoltaic Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy storable primary energy fluctuating primary energy Folie 1 5

6 Installed Capacity [GW] Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA 5 h/a 2 h/a Import/Export Desalination Year 24 Photovoltaic Wind Power 2 Geothermal Hydropower 16 Biomass Tidal/Wave 12 CSP 8 4 Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear Firm Capacity Peak Load 1 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity Folie 11 High Voltage Direct Current Transmission in China Voltage: Power: Length: Source: ± 8. Volt 64 Megawatt 27 km Hydropower Folie 12 6

7 Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % (.5 t/cap/y) until 25 in spite of a quickly growing demand CO2-Emissions in Mt/y Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Year Folie 13 Electricity Cost (Example Spain) Electricity Cost [c/kwh] Investment Phase Profit Phase Year TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2 2, Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 25, after 22 CCS Folie 14 7

8 Solar Power & Desalination Plants HVDC Line Conventional AC Grid Energy, Water, Food, Labor and Income for further 3 Million People in MENA? (artist view created with Google Earth) Folie 15 Thank You! Folie 16 8

9 Some Background Information Folie 17 Availability and Redundancy Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants Increased Number of Supply Regions Additional HVDC Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Renewable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Strategy Based on Proven Technologies Folie 18 9

10 Environmental Security Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Power Generation Reduced Risks of Nuclear Pollution and Proliferation Reduced Pollution by Combustion Products Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix Technology based on Recyclable Materials Folie 19 Economic Security Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA Folie 2 1

11 Political Security Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership Folie 21 Challenges Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Changes of Paradigm) Long-Term Infrastructure Requires Long-Term Financing Strategy Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials Folie 22 11

12 Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP 9 8 Annual Full Load Hours [h/y] Direct Normal Irradiation [kwh/m²/y] SM4 SM3 SM2 SM1 ANDASOL 1 Nevada Solar 1 SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4 Solar Field Solar Field Solar Field Solar Field Storage 1 Storage 2 Storage 3 SM = Solar Multiple 1 Solar Field = 6 m²/mw 1 Storage = 6 hours (full load) Power Block Electricity Folie 23 Electricity [TWh/y] Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario) Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Year Folie 24 12

13 Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa 45 Electricity [TWh/y] Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Year Folie 25 Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuels (no fossil or nuclear base load supply) 6 5 Power Supply [GW] Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar Import Import & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus Hourly Model Germany 25 (TRANS-CSP) Folie 26 13

14 Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid: Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA EUMENA: Europe Middle East North Africa Folie 27 Population Density per km² in 26 Source: land scan 26 Folie 28 14