1. The 2017 midpoint assessment

Transcription

1 1. The 2017 midpint assessment What is the midpint assessment? Review and incrpratin f the latest science, data, tls, BMPs and lessns-learned t determine whether Partnership s strategies will result in all practices in place by 2025 necessary t attain water quality standards in the Bay WQGIT recmmends changes t mdeling decisin supprt tls Findings frm Midpint Assessment may help jurisdictins prepare Phase III WIPs, which will guide milestnes and implementatin frm With PSC endrsement, WQGIT decided n specific pririties and wrk t be dne as part f assessment Summary f PSC high level pririties Incrprate better mdel input data frm lcal partners, particularly fr current, histric and future land uses and their assciated pllutin lading rates Revisit mdel calibratin methds and assumptins s mdeling results better align with mnitring data Includes accunting fr decreased trapping capacity behind dams, thugh this is nt just a mdeling issue Make CBP mdels mre transparent, easier t understand, and better decisin-supprt tls Ultimately, enhance decisin supprt and assessment tls t enable successful engagement f lcal partners Bttm Line fr Meeting 2025 Gal Partnership needs t be able t engage lcal partners in rder t get practices n the grund Current suite f mdeling tls is pushing partners away Changes t mdeling inputs and assumptins will allw us t wrk with key partners

2 Healthy step in adaptive management prcess MindMeister 2

3 2. Mdeling wrkgrup pririties Airshed Mdel Update Airshed Mdel t new CMAQ Bidirectinal Ammnia Mdel Watershed Mdel Revise Watershed Mdel system structure Revisit Watershed Mdel calibratin methds, including reginal factrs Water Quality and Sediment Transprt Mdel Refine and update the Water Quality and Sediment Transprt Mdel (WQSTM) Refinement f shallw water simulatin fr imprved assessment f pen water DO and SAV/clarity standards TMDL Charges Effects f Cnwing infill n Chesapeake Bay water quality standards Examine the influence f climate change (CC) n Chesapeake WQ standards and the 2010 Bay TMDL Review James River chlrphyll criteria and James River TMDL allcatins Influence f yster filter feeders n water quality, with increased aquaculture and sanctuary develpment STAR Requests Supprt needs f water quality gal team and TMDL Mid-pint assessment supprt Assess and Explain Water Quality Trends MindMeister 3

4 3. Key Pints in the Phase 6 mdeling develpment Phase Year Segments Years land uses Purpse Split NPS/PS Refine NPS "40%" agreement Cnfirmatin f 40% gals Re-allcatin in TMDL >22 Phase 2 WIP develpment Phase 3 WIP develpment Phase 6 is an evlutin f Phase 5. It builds upn the strengths f existing mdels and prvides imprvements directed by the mst recent data and scientific understanding. T this end, it is imprtant t recgnize what has remained unchanged, where the imprvements are and why the have ccurred. What: Many f the fundamental mdeling prcesses have remained the same but have been imprved with better, and mre recent, input infrmatin. In sme cases the mdeling prcesses have changed, such as the simulatin f phsphrus transprt r have been simplified t make them mre transparent. MindMeister 4

5 Why: The imprvements are t prvide increased cnfidence in Bay restratin decisin making. This is accmplished thrugh including the mst recent mnitring infrmatin, increasing the transparency f the mdeling tls, imprved reslutin f transprt prcesses (mechanistic and gegraphic) and by leveraging the strength f multiple mdels within the Bay watershed. The develpment f Phase 6 is driven by the feedback f WQGIT members, recmmendatins frm STAC and recent advancements and understanding f nutrient/sediment mdeling. It is a partnership mdel. Because f this, the finalizatin f Phase 6 had many dependencies that must be factred int the next year and a half. MindMeister 5

6 A nte n cmparing t Phase 6 t Phase 5. In cmparing this versin f the mdel t previus versins f the mdeling tls, histry has shwn that a cmmn questin is t understand the level f effrt required t meet water quality gals. It must be cmmunicated that these mdels are a suite f mdels and ultimate must be applied as a cmplete system t answer this questin. MindMeister 6

7 4. Evlutin f the Decisin Making Tls (Atmspheric, Watershed and Estuarine) Cmmn t all mdels Extended t mre recent years. Phase 5 is based n 1985 t 2005 infrmatin. Segmentatin MindMeister 7

8 Atmspheric Depsitin Mdel (See previus quarterly presentatin The 2002, 2011, 2018, and 2025 CMAQ Scenaris are develped with CMAQ which is the latest release. Includes new bidirectinal ammnia mdel. All future scenaris are prjected frm the 2011 NEI emissin inventries Add mre t this sectin later MindMeister 8

9 Watershed Mdel Charge Add transparency and revisit calibratin methds, including reginal factrs. Segmentatin Based n Phase 5 with mdificatins t incrprate new statins and remve federal land bundaries Hydrlgy Line f evidence driving change Need t extend mdel t mre recent time perid t capture mre mnitring in bth watershed and WQSTM. New Inputs New Precipitatin extends mdel t 2013 Temperature Land and River simulatin methd Phase 5 Calibratin Phase 5 with sme refinement t calibratin bjectives Decisin pints Reached cnsensus n new precipitatin Mdeling WG agreed that results were are as gd r better than that f Phase 5 MindMeister 9

10 Sediment Lines f evidence driving change Need fr imprved gegraphic accuracy t supprt Phase III WIP develpment Land Simulatin Setting the sectr target lading rates Glbal targets based n Phase 5 Lcal Targets: Phase 5 r cnsidering Rusle2 - Will prvide mre specificity t landuse than the riginal Phase 5. Still need sme parameters fr this t wrk Sensitivity - cnverting inputs t utputs Phase 5 Land t stream and stream t river delivery SCS Sediment Delivery Rati being replaced with recently develped USGS methd The effect f management practices n lads Phase 5 River Simulatin Phase 5 Imprved reservir characteristics Calibratin bjectives - same as Phase 5 Decisin pints Reached cnsensus n land sediment methdlgy using RUSLE 2 Need cnsensus n targets Need cnsensus n Sediment delivery rati MindMeister 10

11 Nitrgen Lines f evidence that are driving mdeling changes Need fr imprved gegraphic representatin t supprt Phase III WIP develpment Land Simulatin Setting the sectr target lading rates Glbal targets based upn multiple mdels, Phase 5, CEAP, SPARROW Surce sectr WGs fr new landuse categries and establishing within sectr differences Sensitivity - Cnverting inputs t utputs Phase 5 applied Multiple mdels used fr cmparisn P5, CEAP, SPARROW Transprt factr (replaces reginal factr) Land delivery variance SPARROW Stream delivery using USGS The effect f the management practices n lads Phase 5 time series River delivery Lag Time included but can be turned ff (USGS) River simulatin Phase 5 Calibratin Gegraphic specificity expected t reduce influence f a reginal calibratin factr MindMeister 11

12 River simulatin bjective the same Decisin pints Cnsensus n nitrgen sensitivity Cnsensus n transprt factr Wrking t reach cnsensus n targets Wrking t reach cnsensus n time series methd (lag time) MindMeister 12

13 Phsphrus Lines f evidence fr changes Phsphrus sympsium New Insights Reprt STAC Phsphrus dynamics reprt Eastern Shre mnitring trends USGS WRTDS Phsphrus Trends Land Simulatin Targets Glbal targets based upn multiple mdels, including Phase 5 Surce sectr WGs fr new landuse categries and establishing within sectr differences The effect f management practices n lads Phase 5 Sensitivity - Cnverting inputs t utputs APLE Create time series River simulatin River simulatin the same as Phase 5 Calibratin Decisin Pints Need t reach cnsensus n targets, phsphrus sensitivity, time series mdel MindMeister 13

14 Water Quality Sediment Transprt Mdel Charge Revise and update the water quality sediment transprt mdel and refine the shallw water simulatin fr imprved assessment f pen water disslved xygen and SAV/clarity standards. Segmentatin Same Inputs New infrmatin frm atmspheric depsitin mdel and watershed mdel Hydrdynamics Sediment Extended t 2011 Refined sediment transprt t better accunt fr labile vs refractry nutrients. This is imprtant t address impacts frm Cnwing sediment scur and shreline ersin. Nutrients Same prcesses but includes imprved representatin f labile vs refractry nutrient exchange frm the sediment Calibratin methds Cntinue t review mainstem statins Add fcus t shallw water areas - "big data" apprach used t infrm calibratin. Many shallw water sites incrprated by extending the mdel t simulate mre recent years Other Filter feeder The yster mdel will be revised as necessary t incrprate aquaculture peratins and additinal yster bimass MindMeister 14

15 Phase 6 Review Prcess Materials t be develped t supprt review Draft Mdel reprts available in January 2016 Calibratin Metrics NS hydrlgy Water Quality what summary infrmatin will be needed? What have we used befre and what d we need April Key Scenaris t be used fr review Calibratin All Frest WIP Phase II STAC Reviews N Actin (2010) Prcess: Reprt ut t mdeling WG after each review. February 2016: Phase 6 watershed April 2016: Cnwing Mdeling Apprach Will be dependent n need t recalibrate the WQSTM MindMeister 15

16 June/July 2016: Climate Change Apprach - After Watershed mdel June 2016: Water Quality Sediment Transprt mdel Mdeling Wrkgrup Review The expectatin is that cnsensus will be reached n key mdel develpment decisin pints by wrkgrup members by the end f CY 2015 The 2016 review prcess will be: 1) develping STAC questins, 2) internal review by WG members, 3) seeking cnsensus that mdel can be applied by jurisdicatins in Phase III WIP develpment WQGIT, MB, PSC Schedule briefings thrughut the year with the plan f reaching agreement t present t MB and the PSC tward the end f CY 2016 After each STAC review reprt ut t WQGIT, MB and PSC MindMeister 16

17 "Majr" 2016 Mdel develpment dependencies that need t be cnsidered in the review prcess and final schedule Dependencies Actins Landuse (Sept 2016) Cnwing mnitring data Histric BMP infrmatin STAC Review/Fatal Flaws BMP efficiencies - Are there any majr practices that are being finalized thrugh the review perid? Pultry Litter Subcmmittee - Manure applicatin and mass balance BMP verificatin We need dates t be verified by lead Hw d we address these dependencies in reaching cnsensus n an apprved mdel by December 2016 MindMeister 17

18 Next Steps Review Phase 6 prttype 1 Reach cnsensus n remaining decisins fr December Phase 6 Mdel WQGIT briefing in August f 2015 t cver remaining build schedule t the end f CY 2016 and review and revisin thrugh See attachment fr prpsed briefings MindMeister 18

19 Pssible activities fr 2017 Scenaris as assigned Additinal climate scenaris Gegraphic Islatin Scenaris Uncertainty analysis Factrs affecting trends MindMeister 19