Black Sea Transmission Planning (BSTP)

Transcription

1 Black Sea Transmission Planning (BSTP) Current Studies & Future Directions April 3, 2012 Kiev, Ukraine Patrick D. Miller, United States Energy Association William Polen, United States Energy Association 1

2 Presentation Objectives History and Objectives of the BSTP project Description of the Regional Steady State and Dynamic Models Analyzing market based trading scenarios using Optimum Power Flow (OPF) software Modeling projected Renewable Energy Sources 2

3 BSTP Project History & Objectives 3

4 History of BSTP BSTP Established in 2004 with signing of the Sofia Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Armenia (2006); Bulgaria; Georgia; Moldova; Romania Russia; Turkey; Ukraine Phase I concluded in 2007 PSS/E Software was provided to each TSO 43 Engineers were trained in Steady State and Dynamic Modeling National and Regional Steady State Models were created 4

5 History of BSTP (Continued) Phase II was concluded in February 2010 National and Regional Dynamic Models were created Steady State and Dynamic Studies were completed All Countries have surplus power generation capacities in 2015 But limited transfer capacities Phase III will conclude on September 30, 2012 Discussed in this presentation 5

6 BSTP Project Goals Promote regional transmission planning among Black Sea TSO s Harmonize transmission planning principles, software and methodologies Identify priority investments in national transmission systems & interconnections between countries 6

7 BSTP Project Objectives Create sustainable international expert transmission planning Working Group (WG) Support common planning software platform (PSS/E) Analyze the regional system to identify bottlenecks (congestion) Identify potential transmission investments needed to enhance trade Promote analytical results to policy & regulatory authorities 7

8 BSTP Phase III Scope of Work GOAL: Analyze the Network s Capacity to Support Greater Clean Energy Cross Border Trade/Exchange Based on Projected Wholesale Electricity Market Prices 8

9 Description of Regional Models 9

10 BSTP Regional Model High Voltage Transmission Network 750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV network Generator units at their nominal voltage level Step-up transformers for main generation capacities All new generation, substations and lines that are expected to be operational up to 2020 (according to the long term development plans)

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12 Regional Model Regimes Model Regimes: 2010 Winter peak, 2010 Summer peak 2010 Summer off-peak 2015 Winter peak 2015 Summer peak 2015 Summer off-peak 2020 Winter peak 2020 Summer peak 2020 Summer off-peak

13 Regional Steady State Model Load flow analyses loading of the network feasibility of base case exchanges voltage profile analyses contingency analyses (n-1 security check) Border capacity overview Bottle neck evaluation (congestions) Identify potential transmission investment projects

14 Regional Dynamic Model Dynamic stability major concern in region system stability is major limiting factor for system operation and high electricity exchange level; necessity to analyze dynamic system behavior check the maximum exchange scenarios for stability Russian built excitation systems modeled (non standard models) Proposed new units based on forecasts to 2020 HVDC devices are modeled

15 Synchronous Scenarios Presently 3 synchronous zones: ENTSO-E (Including Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey), IPS/UPS and Armenia Possibilities are: 3 zones: ENTSO-E, Ukraine and Moldova in ENTSO-E testing mode and IPS/UPS (including Armenia). 2 zones: ENTSO-E (that includes Ukraine and Moldova) and IPS/UPS (including Armenia).

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17 Analyzing Market Based Trading Scenarios Using Optimum Power Flow (OPF) 17

18 Market Based Trading Scenarios Phase III Efforts In addition to studying a worse case scenario, i.e. Winter or Summer Maximum conditions (as in Phase I & II), Move in the direction of studying cross border exchanges that are economically justified Utilizing the Optimum Power Flow (OPF) feature of PSS/E software To optimize national and regional generation. 18

19 Optimization Using OPF Finding an optimum economic operating position considering the cost of competing objectives such as: Fuel Costs Power Slack Generation Transmission System Technical Losses Cross Boarder (Interface) Flows Reactive Generation Reserves Required 19

20 Optimizing Regional Exchanges Trying to answer the question: What are the economically optimal dispatch levels of each generator in the region considering differences in generation and transmission costs? 20

21 OPF Data Requirements OPF utilizes all of the PSS/E model data plus additional generator data as follows: Type of Generating Plant Fuel used in each Plant Plant Fixed Costs Plant Variable Costs Rules of Plant Engagement Special Contractual Obligations that would not allow an Optimum Solution 21

22 Developing Generating Plant Cost Curves Cost data is used to construct Cost Curves for each generating plant. Linear and non linear curves are used by OPF. x axis is Active Power Generation y axis is Generation Incremental Fuel Cost (Euros per hour) 22

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25 Problem: How to Obtain Proprietary Generation Cost Data 25

26 Solution: Generic Cost Curve Development Developed by USEA and EKC Reviewed, revised and approved by TSO s TSO s have used Generic Curve data to build national OPF models. TSO can modify Generic Curves to better represent actual cost data. 26

27 Phase III Modeling USEA and EKC have integrated these national models into a regional model to be used for regional OPF studies. Models have been updated with best estimates of wind, hydro and solar energy integration. Regional Studies will be completed for all agreed Regimes and Synchronous Scenarios by September 30,

28 Modeling Projected Renewable Energy Sources 28

29 2015 & 2020 Model Updates for RES Based on Questionnaire completed by each TSO Questionnaires addressed the following: Renewable Energy Development Plans for 2015 & 2020 Renewable Tariffs and Other Economic Incentives Connection of Renewables to Transmission Grids Critical Issues Impacting the Integration of intermittent Renewable Energy Sources 29

30 Bulgaria Development Plan Summary DEVEELOPMENT PLAN OF RENEWABLES INSTALLED CAPACITY [MW] Type /Year SUM[MW] HPP(no pumps) WPP SOLAR BIOMASS SUM[MW]

31 Ukraine Renewable Tariff Summary tariffs (without tax) kategory UAHkp/KWh EURc/KWh USDc/KWh I Small hydro II Wind >2000kW Wind >600kW Wind <600kW III Solar PV >100kW Solar PV <100kW Solar PV large IV Biomass (incl. LFG)

32 Armenia Wind Zones & Substations Potential Power Plant Wind

33 Critical Issues for Wind Integration (To be discussed in the next presentation) Required new transmission systems (the wind is not where the transmission system is) Congestion on existing transmission systems Frequency and Voltage regulation Difficulties Sudden loss of wind reserve capacity Balancing capacity needed due to intermittent wind 33

34 The Complete Report is Available at Renewable Energy Policies, Regulations, Incentives and Technical Interconnection Procedures Report from BSTP Phase III

35 Thank You! Contact Information: Jamshid Heidarian: William Polen: Patrick Miller: 35